Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Next Leader of the Opposition?

Well technically, it will be somebody that is filling those shoes in the Interim. Who might that be?

Simple answer is someone who has been around for a little bit, and who does not want to be permanent leader. The latter is the biggest variable.

Jason Kenney is the default, but he's almost certain to run for leader. So who else?

Of those fairly certain to not run for leader, the best options are:

Candice Bergen
David Tilson
Gord Brown
Dean Allison
Tom Lukiwski

In no particular order. Adding those who may run for leader:

Denis Lebel
Peter Kent
Peter Van Loan
Rob Nicholson
Lisa Raitt

So who might actually run for leader? Skipping the above 5, who I believe to all be "unlikely" to run, the following is a list of potential candidates:

Newfoundland + PEI:
Danny Williams (very unlikely)

Nova Scotia:
Peter MacKay (likely)

New Brunswick:
Rom Moore (maybe)
Bernard Lord (dark horse)

Stephen Blaney (likely)
Maxime Bernier (possible)
Gerard Deltell (probable)

Christine Elliot (unlikely)
Pierre Poilievre (near certainty)
Diane Finley (maybe)
Scott Reid (unlikely)
Tony Clement (probably)
Michael Chong (hopefully)

Manitoba + Saskatchewan:
Brad Wall (very unlikely)

Michelle Rempel (likely)
Rona Ambrose (likely)

British Columbia:
Stockwell Day (unlikely)
Mark Warawa (unlikely)

My personal preference would be a Chong victory, but Jason Kenney is clearly the undisputed front runner at this stage.

I'd welcome feedback as to other names that could be added, if you have any in mind.


  1. What about some former provincial Premiers, like Jean Charest, Bernard Lord?

    1. Lord is on the list, Charest is too (political) old. Not sure any other past premiers could do it, Redford, Prentice, not exactly stellar material. The premiers of the other provinces that were PC are also "low grade", though not as bad as them.