Friday, October 2, 2015

02OCT2015 Projection - Radical Changes

This is the final projection before we re-couple the projection to the polls, now that the momentum has stabilized. The last post in this series will include the "front page" but for now, some notes.

The NDP has dropped (in the projection) to 22.6% in Ontario and is sitting on only 23 seats in the province.

BC, in terms of polls, is a mess. The gap between first and third in most polls is 10 points, yet, the polls all show someone different in first and in third.

The Bloc is up to 6 seats in Quebec. The huge number of these seats are won very narrowly (hence the jump up from 1) but it does indicate a possible "comeback". Duceppe will not win his seat though, but, it could get a competent MP into the commons who could lead the party.

Tories lead in seats, slightly ahead of the Liberals, who are around 40 seats ahead of the NDP.

Greens are sitting on 3 seats, but the 3rd seat is very very vulnerable.

Fortin continues to hold on to his seat, but the Independents in Alberta have been adjusted down.

Maps and a full projection coming up shortly (simply have to take the images)

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