Friday, June 21, 2019

Ukraine - Parliamentary projection

I happened to notice, on one of my regular checks, that the polls in Ukraine are quite stable. This allows me to offer you a quick projection. Note that I've done some minor rounding - 5 seats or so - to help show which parties are neck and neck and which parties are ahead of the pack. Also note that instead of party names, I'm mostly going with the name of the leader, as, this tends to be how politics work in Ukraine.

250 - Zelensky (President)
40 - Opposition (Pro-Russian)
25 - Tymoshenko (Pro-West)
25 - Poroshenko (Former President)
25 - Vakarchuk (Progressive)
56 - Others, mostly Independents

This would give Zelensky a majority, a feat last matched in the mostly-free 1990 election by the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (Ukraine) or CPSU-(U) which won a large majority in Parliament.

This majority would be lost when that Parliament voted to ban the CPSU-(U), with the party's members joining or forming various other parties, or, becoming Independents.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Upcoming elections

The next local elections I may look at are in Brandenburg and Saxony, in Germany.

I am still keeping track of the Danish election, which is complete, to see who forms the next government; and, still trying to find ways to present the EU election data.

Greece votes on the 7th of July, a little over a month from now.
Polls have been fairly stable and suggest a victory by ND, the more Conservative party, which could win a majority on its own.

Ukraine votes on the 21st, but polls have been somewhat sparse. What we do have suggests a strong finish for Zelensky, the new President. His party may take 45% of the vote, which, due to thresholds, could be enough for an outright majority. The Pro-Russia opposition sits at a little over 10%, while both Poroshenko and Tymoshenko are polling consistently above the threshold (parties in Ukraine tend to rally around a single person rather than a single ideology) The only other party to pass the threshold recently is Voice, a new Liberal party lead by Svyatoslav Vakarchuk.

Japan will hold upper house elections some time in July, the 21st currently appears most likely. This will see half the upper house elected. Polling in Japan is strange. Take the 2017 election, where the final full poll showed the LDP at 32%. They took 33% in the election. However the CDP polled at 7% and took 20%. Kibo polled at 6% and took 17%. Komei at 4%, but took 13%. so what gives? The answer is that polls in Japan tend to ask not "how are you planning to vote" but "what party do you most approve of". The result of this is that votes for the LDP tend to be what is shown in the poll, but opposition parties need the "other/don't know/none" distributed. Distributing this to the LDP as well simply makes the poll inaccurate. Applying this to the coming election we can expect to see the LDP take between 40%-45% of the vote, and their coalition partners Komei between 10%-20%. CDP, the main opposition, could take 20%-25% while both Ishin and the Communists could take around 10%. This would mean a result similar to the last upper house election. I will look at the election in more detail and provide a 'guess' of the result at that time.

August is an off month, and we return in September with an election on the 17th in Israel. Given how far out we are from the election, polls are not yet frequent, but polling suggests that Bibi could form the government he wanted (the one that was voted down causing this election) on these results.

Austria is next, perhaps, as their election is simply 'sometime' in September, and, may, in fact, be before Israel. The OVP is up, while both the SPO and FPO are down. The coalition math, however, does not change for the OVP. It could however if NEOS, a Liberal party, and the OVP, can increase their combined vote total.

This takes us to October, which is over 110 days away. The next elections will then me Portugal, and Switzerland, followed, of course, by the Federal elections here in Canada. Then it is off to Poland in November.

Monday, June 10, 2019

Italy update

In my earlier post I noted possible movement that I never followed up on as Italy bans polls in the run up to an election and the EU just had one of those.

Since then, polls have confirmed the basic trends from that election which are as follows:

Lega Nord is up across the country, including in the south. They are now polling as high as 37% support. 

M5S has continued to fall and now are polling as low as 16%.

FdI is also up, while FI is down; the former being more nationalist in nature and the latter, generally conservative, the party of Berlusconi. These two parties, along with LN, form the right-wing in Italy. Polls are now showing that the right-wing could win a majority in an election and such a coalition would be expected in the event of such a result. 

PD, the Progressives, are now solidly in second place.

If trends continue normally, LN and PD will become the two main parties, but, trends have done anything but 'continue normally' in Italy as of late. 

Friday, June 7, 2019

Various updates

Besides the chaos in the UK, the most notable thing going on right now is in Germany where the Greens have pulled level with the leading CDU

Saturday, June 1, 2019

What would I do if I was running for UK PM?

The tory leadership race in Britain will decide the next Prime Minister - assuming the government does not somehow collapse before then. This article caught my eye and it started me wondering what I'd do if I was running.

My view of the problem is thus: No one 'idea' has whippage force of 50%+1 of the Parliament. This causes "chaos" and is a bigger problem than Brexit itself. It is this that is the "mess" that everyone is referring to. 

As such my campaign would be as follows.

First, I think Brexit is an awful, awful idea. I think the nation was stupid for voting for it and once Brexit is said and done, I'm going to move to Scotland and campaign for Independence so that I can rejoin the EU. This will mean, of course, my term as PM will end. During my term I will do one and only one thing and that is pull the UK out of the EU. Why?

Because we had a referendum and that's how people voted. "But you think the people chose wrong!" Aye, I do, but we are a democracy and it is their fundamental right to be wrong. Government is simply there to fulfill the will of the people.

To this end I will do 3 things. First. As soon as I take office I call a meeting of the Parliamentary Party. This will be an open meeting, meaning public cameras. Attendance will be required. Any member not attending and not having a damn good excuse - like being laid up in hospital - will be assumed to have quit the party, and have the whip removed, and their membership card declared invalid.

At this meeting I will ask a simple question. "May's Deal or No Deal" and we will vote on these, and only these, two options. I will not vote. In the event of a tie, I will vote and thus break the tie. In the event of abstentions, whichever proposal has more votes, even if less than half, is adopted.

Next, I inform the party that this is now our official party stance. And that any member unwilling to vote this way in Parliament needs to hand in their membership card and resign the whip. This is key. I fully expect to lose a few dozen members. This is when we go to the next stage.

I attempt to see if I can get a majority in Parliament for my proposal. Any members that lied to me (IE said they could support it but then oppose it) are removed from the party. If I can get a majority, hurrah. I then do everything possible to ram it through the lords - if even necessary - and stay PM until the bill passes, and the EU says "okay, goodbye" if no deal, or "alright its a deal" if may's deal. Then, Brexit is over. I call a leadership election for the Conservative party, and purchase property west lothian.

If I do not get a majority, I put the property purchase on hold while I hold a general election. I will campaign on one and only one thing - that my party will do what my party said it would do, and, then I will resign. If I lose the election, which is bloody likely, I resign as leader on election night and refuse to take my seat (or, resign it, if I can't refuse it). If I win, I then, again, try to pass whatever we agreed to, by making it the entirety of my throne speech and my first bill, and if it fails again, I inform her majesty of the failure, suggest the opposition leader might have a better crack at it, and resign as PM, as leader, and my seat, knowing that I've done all I can as Conservative leader to get Britain out of this fucking mess.

Computer died again.

As outlined on my personal blog, my computer has died again. Unlike last time, this will not decrease the posting here, as, I have nothing that has been lost, and, in fact, may increase posting as I have less to distract me. I am hoping to have the EU election post ready once I figure out how I want to present it.

Monday, May 27, 2019

Belgian election results

I'm working on a post about the euro elections, until then, I've made this table while experimenting with ways to share the results of the Belgian election.


The two things to know to make sense of this, is that Belgium has two powerful regional parliaments, one for the Francophone Walloonia, and one for the Flemish Flanders. Additionally, its parties are nearly all split by language, meaning there is no single "liberal party" but a French "liberal party" and a Flemish "liberal party". With this in mind, the above graphic should make sense.

Friday, May 24, 2019

Danish Election - Looking at it as I do

As is probably clear by now, I'm on a bit of a downswing from posting; but I thought I'd share something I normally do not post:



This is two images that I've cropped together and added some colour to.

On the top are the first 5 polls of the year, on the bottom are the 5 most recent ones.

You can see that the "O" party has fallen quite far, from an average of around 17.5% to an average of closer to 11%.

I've coloured in the background of each party tag in the colour of the 'alliance' they belong to; blue means more right-wing while red means more left-wing. I've also added arrows in red and green to show direction and size of movement.

So, why don't I normally show this? Cause this is just for me. I do this so I can understand what is going on. Its why its a bit sloppy; its for me; but I decided to share it rather than posting nothing today.

the "long story short" is the left/red alliance is rocketing to a victory 55%-45%.

WHY is "O" falling, and what is that party?

I don't know. I've not looked into it yet. I do things like this to know what I should look into for my post - and I will be making one about Denmark.

If I recall, this is the peoples party, and they are the big anti-immigration party. As to why they've fallen my guess is a scandal. That being said, I'm not certain. I am fairly sure this is the anti-immigration party, but for some reason I think their name may be the Liberals.

This is where I begin when I write posts. It is from here I expand my knowledge and look into things so that I can relate the information to all of you in a conscience and easy to understand manner.

Sunday, May 19, 2019

Australia election results

Still possible for seats to switch, but, currently, the results are as follows:


SENATE RESULTS:
18 - 16 - L/NP (34)
14 - 13 - ALP (27)
6 - 3 - GRN (9)
0 - 2 - CA (2)
1 - 1 - ONP (2)
0 - 1 - AC (1)
1 - 0 - JLN (1)

summary results:
34 - Coalition
27 - Labor
9 - Greens
6 - Others (all either centrist, or right-wing)



HOUSE RESULTS:
76 - L/NP
68 - ALP
1 - GRN
5 - OTH

full results:
68 - ALP - 33.9%
44 - LIB - 27.7%
1 - GRN - 10.0%
23 - LNP - 8.5%
10 - NAT - 4.9%
3 - IND - 3.5%
0 - UAP - 3.4%
0 - ONP - 3.0%
1 - KAP - 0.5%
1 - CA - 0.3%
0 - OTH - 4.3%

Friday, May 17, 2019

Follow me on twitter!

Australia's election is under 8 hours away; and if you want to follow along as I discuss it, you can (and, by now really should) follow me on twitter. https://twitter.com/Pellaken

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Sunday, May 12, 2019

Italy, some interesting movements

I want to start by first going over some things I've said in the past about Italy.

In February, I posted this image


and said, quote 

until the gap between PD and M5S gets smaller, nothing has actually "changed"

In another post I asked

When will M5S fall below PD, or, will it stop before it even reaches that level; if it does fall below them does M5S vanish?
and at my last update

Italy: The bottom has fallen out from under M5S and they've dropped to PD levels. This comes as Lega numbers are stable, causing a drop for the combined support for the governing parties. The main impact of this trend is the increasing likelihood that in the next election, the League and its jr ally, the various Conservative parties (Berlusconi leads the main one) could win a majority.
Since then I've noticed a poll trend that's caught my eye.

First, let me share the polling graphic


Now lets focus on just the recent polls by stretching this out


And since that is such a terrible mess, let me show you what this looks like, to me.

Rather than plunging through PD support on its way to zero, M5S support has stabilized right at or slightly above PD. Beyond that, in the past three weeks, LN has dropped about 2 point in the polls while both PD and M5S are up a point. This is what's caught my attention.

What is causing this and if it will continue will remain to be seen, but I certainly do find this of note and interesting. 

Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Another newfoundland update

Been doing some reading about who the various local candidates are for the various parties and other things.

Saturday, May 4, 2019

Northern Ireland local election results map

Here are the results presented in a way that you've probably never seen them before:



There are still 6 seats in Belfast that have yet to produce final results; but of them, two are obvious; with one going to SF and the other to the DUP. As such the final results are below:

121 DUP (x)
104 SF (x)
75 UUP (xx)
58 SDLP
53 APNI
8 GRN
6 TUV
9 OTH (xx)
24 IND

you'll notice the six X's, they indicate the possible winners of the last 4 seats. The UUP for example might win up to two of them, while the DUP, or SF, could only win one each; and, of course, as there are 6 slots for 4 people, might not win any!

I'll be posting more on the election later on.

England Local Elections

Local elections have now completed counting in England. Some areas - such as London or Cornwall - did not have local elections this year, but much of England did. These figures are only for those areas that held general elections on the 2nd.

Results are as follows.
Results Party (Seats gained or lost) [Seats 'last time'] {pop vote}

3562 CON (-1334) [4896] {28%}
2023 LAB (-82) [2105] {28%}
1350 L-D (+703) [647] {19%}
265 GRN (+194) [71]
31 UKIP (-145) [176]
1179 IND (+ 662) [517]

Note that "seats last time" is simply derived from the seats this time, with the seats gained or lost removed or added back. Since some councils were merged or changed sizes, this does not equal the actual number of councillors elected in 2015. I'm showing these numbers to help you get a grasp of how drastically some parties moved. I've also included popular vote figures where available.

Note that I've included the 15 seats won by "smaller parties" in with the Independents.

Lastly, note as well that the figures reported are a bit weird. I merged the "Residents Association" grouping with "Independents" as a number of "Independent Groups" were included in there as well. My understanding, and opinion, is that a "Residents Association" just a group of Independents, and thus, identical to an "Independent Group" regardless of what name it uses. Some, including the BBC, apparently felt otherwise. As such, I combined the two for these figures to reduce confusion. If and when possible, I will separate these out into two groups; Groups and Individuals, to show the seat totals for each.

As I understand things, and my opinion is; a "Group of Independents" be it under the name "Residents Association" or "Free Voters" are Political Parties, equal to any other political party, and simply have chosen a geographic limitation for themselves (IE their council area and no more) and/or limitations on free voting in their various assemblies and legislatures. They are thus distinct and different from true "Independents" who run on no common slate, and stand for themselves, and their on records alone.

Friday, May 3, 2019

Aontú wins local seat in Northern Ireland

The big results post will have to wait until tomorrow, but of note is that Aontú, a right-wing republican party promoting the unification of Ireland, has won a local seat.

Most republican and nationalist parties in Northern Ireland lean to the left, and most Unionist parties lean to the right, with only the PUP (Progressive Unionist Party) leaning to the left.

This now gives people a wider range of options to vote for at election time. It does not, however, mark a sea change, as, this is 1 seat out of over 400.

UK local elections update

Counting is proceeding slowly, which is normal. The current trends are that the Conservatives are losing quite a few seats, but with them winning the largest share by far in the last election, they also have the most to lose. UKIP is losing a massive percentage of their seats, while the Greens are increasing their seat count significantly. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile look set to double their total, while Labour is down in some of the specific areas they've traditionally done well in.

The biggest winners so far are the Independents, either separately, are in unions such as Residents' Associations.

All of this, however, is from England.

Northern Ireland results are slow to come in, and, as I wish to fully detail them, I will wait for more results before making a post on them.

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

UK local elections tomorrow

As I've noted previously, my personal 'drive' towards politics comes in waves, I do not think it will be surprising to learn I'm in a bit of a lull right now. Otherwise, this would not have snuck up on me the way it has. Tomorrow, is the election for local authorities in the UK.

Unlike Canada, the UK has no "provinces", and as such, county level government has much more power than any equivalent here. Along with roughly 2/3rds of England, all of Northern Ireland is voting tomorrow. With no assembly in Stormont, the local elections are of greater importance.

I will be covering the results in these elections across Northern Ireland, as well as some of the England results, tomorrow.

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

PEI, Electoral Reform, and a "Lite" proposal.

Canadians, as seen in the referenda we've held towards election reform, need to be warmed up to the idea. In order to achieve this goal, I propose a "Lite" reform.

PEI will be our example.

This reform will keep the 27 ridings we have, and keep them FPTP. It will add 5 new ridings. Why 5? Two reasons. First is that at one time, PEI had 32 ridings; and had 32 from 1966 to 1996. Second is the use of a formula I am proposing which I'll outline at the bottom of this post, from which you can work out the number of additional seats to add to any province with.

Next, we simply use the total party vote across the province to help determine our result. Then we divide it by the number of seats each party has won, plus one. Why plus one? It's a bit of complex math, but in short, that is the one seat we are currently calculating.

The results we then get are 3,387 for the Liberals, 2,732 for the Greens, 2,402 for the NDP, and 2,256 for the Tories. The Liberals, with the highest total, "win" this, the first of our five additional seats.

Thus we add one to the Liberal total, which, impacts their new number, down to 2,964. Still the highest, so they win this, the second, of our additional seats.

Now down at 2,635, the Liberals are no longer the highest party, the Greens are, who win the third of our additional seats.

The Greens fall to 2,459 allowing the Liberals to win the fourth seat, but the Liberals falling to 2,371, allow the Greens to take the 5th and final extra seat, reducing their total to 2,236

The NDP would be next, if there were any additional seats to hand out, but there are not.

What this does is change our final results to 12 PC, 10 Green, and 9 Liberal. This has a much closer reflection to the actual popular vote totals cast in the election.





Formula for calculating the number of additional seats.
Legislature divided by 7. Take that number, add one. Round.

PEI sees 27/7 = 3.857, add one = 4.857, round = 5
Ontario 121/7 = 17.2857, add one = 18.2857, round = 18
Quebec 125/7 = 17.857, add one = 18.857, round = 19
Newfoundland (40) = would result in 7 additional seats
MB (57) = 9 additional
AB (87) = 13 additional
Federally = is not done; is done by region (ON, QC, BC, AB, as well as the Atlantic, and 'Central Prairies and North') which gives us 19 for Ontario, 12 for Quebec, 7 for BC, 6 for AB, 6 for the Atlantic, 5 for the remainder. (for a total of 55)

Monday, April 29, 2019

The PEI Reverse Gerrymander

Prior to the 1996 PEI election, PEI used riding boundaries that had been drawn 100 years prior. While there had been one change, in 1966, this resulted in some ridings having far more or far less voters than they should have. Before the 1996 election, the Supreme Court told PEI they had to have fair ridings, and so, Elections PEI took to redrawing the boundaries.

This is when something interesting happened.

After seeing the completed map, the Legislature stepped in and drew its own map. At the time, the Liberals dominated the Legislature, and many said that this map was Gerrymandered to guarantee a Liberal win.

In the 1996 election, the PC Party won a majority.

The same map was used in 2000, and 2003. Both times resulting in a PC Majority. Finally, before the 2007 election, the map was updated.

Yet again, the Legislature stepped in, and drew its own map. Yet again, there were accusations of Gerrymandering, this time, against the governing PC Party.

In the 2007 election, the Liberals won a majority.

They won again, on the same map in 2011, and 2015, before, finally, the map was again updated.

And again, the Legislature, this time dominated by the Liberals, drew its own map. There was not much in accusations of gerrymandering, but a few people did point the finger.

Regardless, right on schedule, the 2019 election resulted in a PC Minority with a Green official opposition.

It remains to be seen of the PEI Reverse Gerrymander will continue.

Sunday, April 28, 2019

Spain may face another election

While there are still some ballots left to count, the results appear to be as follows:





123 - PSOE - Social Democrat
68 - PP - Conservative (incl NA+)
57 - C's - Liberal
43 - Podemos - Left (incl Comp)
24 - Vox - Nationalist
15 - ERC - Left Catalonian Separatist
7 - JxCat - Right Catalonian Separatist
6 - PNV - Right Basque Regionalist
4 - EHB - Left Basque Separatist
2 - CCa-PNC - Canary Islands Regionalists
1 - PRC - Regionalists (Cantabria) 
0 - PAC - Pro-Animal Rights

This can be summed up as follows:

123 - Socialist
68 - Conservative
57 - Liberal
43 - Left
24 - Nationalist
26 - Various Separatists
9 - Various Regionalists

A coalition between the Socialists, Left, and Regionalists would be 1 seat short of a Majority, meaning any such left coalition would have to include Separatist parties. 

A coalition between the Liberals, Conservatives, and Nationalists meanwhile is quite far off the mark, being dozens of seats short. 

The Socialists and Liberals could form a majority, having 180 seats in the 350 seat assembly; but the Liberals seem unwilling to do so (however, their mind may change if another election looms) 

Another, more radical possibility, may be a grand coalition between the Socialists and Conservatives, but this is perhaps unlikely. 

As always, I will update you with more information as things progress. 

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Newfoundland non-projection update

As outlined on the image, I'm trying something new; all my Newfoundland non-projections will be done this way, and no mathematical projections will be done.

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Newfoundland election non projection

I've not yet had time to dig into the polls in Newfoundland and Labrador in any great detail; however I've skimmed a few of them, and, produced a map. I'd like to walk you through the process of creating the map.


1 - Objective:
To update my 2015 map for use in 2019

2 - Method:
To show a "tie" as the result

3 - Process:
Using the election atlas, and eyeballing it

4 - Completion:
Making sure both parties have 19 seats and the NDP has 2


This is the resulting map:

Spanish Election Projection

With the polling holiday in full swing, I've decided to release a projection based on polls from before the polling ban started:

121 - PSOE - Social Democrat
79 - PP - Conservative
50 - C's - Liberal
38 - Podemos - Left
35 - Vox - Nationalist
13 - ERC - Left Catalonian Separatist
6 - PNV - Right Basque Regionalist
4 - JxCat - Right Catalonian Separatist
3 - EHB - Left Basque Separatist
1 - PAC - Pro-Animal Rights

176 needed for majority

Some math:

159 - PSOE + Podemos
167 - PP + C's + Vox
181 - PSOE + C's

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Monday, April 22, 2019

PEI - final projection

The Greens are in the drivers seat for this election, and are likely to win the most seats.


It is difficult to pinpoint exact ridings that can or will be won for various reasons. Regardless, the Greens should end with the largest number of seats. Currently, the PC Party seems set to finish second, as the Liberals seem to be more on a downward trend.

Friday, April 19, 2019

Alberta results.

Still 1 more box per riding, so I've blanked out any riding with a margin under 5%

Thursday, April 18, 2019

PEI, Penultimate projection

A new poll, showing the Greens at 40%, ahead of the Liberals and Tories, both below 30%, has caused me to make a new projection:


Since there are now two clear alternatives presented in polling; a 3-way race vs a Green majority, I will need to think about which I feel is more liable to be accurate. When I'm done that thinking, I will release a final projection.

A sidenote, for anyone looking for a red coloured star in a PC riding, you won't find one.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

PEI election projection

With so few polls and such a small voterbase, projections are very difficult for PEI; but regardless, here is what I currently have.


Given how much of this is "educated guesswork" its unlikely that even if we do get more polling that I'd do a further projection. We'd need to see polling indicate some kind of change in the trend for me to do that.

Monday, April 15, 2019

Alberta election projections

I wanted to go through the process of making an election projection with Alberta as the target. I began by doing a poll average of all 10 polls since the election began.




This is what I end up with. Next I need to add my adjustments for Edmonton and Calgary, as, Calgary is less pro-blue and Edmonton more pro-blue when compared to last election.



As you can see, not much change in sum, but a few ridings do flip.



An important step is to take account for who is running and where. This changes further ridings. Note a counting error on the map (which I've decided not to change to explain how these happen) with the Alberta Party. Since there are more UCP ridings than any other, I simply counted all the non-UCP seats, tapping my finger, or a pen, on the screen to count each one.

After I got that total, I added this up, and subtracted 87, which gave me 56. As such, both the Alberta Party and the UCP have the wrong number of seats shown. However, it is not the number of seats, but the seats themselves which I've calculated in my spreadsheet. As such, that is correct, and the numbers are simply a bonus I've included so you don't have to count them yourself; however in the event the two do not match, its the number of splotches on the map which is correct.

When I colour in the ridings, I paint by number. If my spreadsheet tells me riding #04 is NDP, I find it, and colour it in orange. This can lead to errors when the number on my spreadsheet is wrong, or, when my spreadsheet does not have numbers, only names. In these cases I can misread things, or, in the worst case, mix up a Moncton Centre for a Saint John Centre, as I've done before.

Regardless, on to the next map, which takes trends, expectations, and my gut into account!



This is where things really change. Its harder to explain "why" a lot of this happens, as its heavily based on my gut and instinct. In order to make sure I'm still grounded, this is the next step:



When I make my projections, this is the step I adjust the most. During any random given election, I will tend to intentionally do at least one projection with this dialed up to 11, and one with this set to minimum; and this is how you can sometimes see wild swings in my numbers when the polls are stable.

This is because "how biased am I" is not an easy question to answer. One question in particular that I do not get nearly as often as I should, is "what do (I) want to happen"



This is the answer to that question. you'll note some perhaps strange riding swaps. I like it when all parties are competitive in all areas. I like it when smaller parties do well. In particular, I like the fact that Alberta changed their government from the one who governed it since the 70s. Am I thus always biased towards the NDP? Heck no, I want the BC NDP to lose. I also want the NB NDP to do poorly, but I want the Manitoba NDP to do well. I want Tories to win in Nova Scotia, but lose in New Brunswick. I want the Greens to win in PEI but to fail to win any seats in Manitoba.

It is very rare that who I want to win and who I want to lose is based on policy. Its frequently based on novelty, change, and making pretty maps. It is very rare that I actually have real position on a big issue.

Despite that, I do still want the NDP to continue in government in Alberta. No government in Alberta has ever "returned" to power. No government has lasted less than three terms. I want these two things to continue.


Despite that


I can't see how the UCP does not fails to win a majority tomorrow.

Finland election result

There may still be a few ballots left to count that can change things, but as of right now, results are as follows:

40 - Social Democrats
39 - Nationalists
38 - Moderates
31 - Nordic Liberals
20 - Greens
16 - Left
9 - Swedish Minority
5 - Christian Democrat
2 - Others


The Nationalists, under their new leader, proves too far right to remain in the right-wing coalition, as such, it is extremely unlikely that the Social Democrats would want to sit with the Nationalists. As such I will present the most likely coalitions.

You need 101 seats for a majority.

For the Nationalists to form a coalition, they would need to find 62 additional seats. If they managed to get the Christian Democrats and the 2 Others on board, this brings that number down to 55. Even if the Swedish party joined in, this brings that down to 46. This would mean two other parties, and the Nordic Liberals and Moderates both refused to sit with the Nationalists, under their new leader, in the current government. As such any coalition that includes the Nationalists is unlikely.

For the current government, whose core is the Moderates and Nordic Liberals, to continue, they would require 32. With the Christian Democrats, Other parties, and Swedish party, this brings things down to 15. While the Greens or Left party could complete this, it is simply more likely for the parties to sit with the Social Democrats instead. As such, we will look at them in the lead of a coalition.

With the Greens and Left, the Social Democrats would still need 25 additional seats, meaning either the Moderates or the Nordic Liberals.

A Social Democrat coalition is more likely to include the Nordic Liberals than the Moderates. Their combined total is 71, meaning a need for 30 additional seats. There are two ways to obtain these seats. First, is to bring the Moderates into the coalition. Second, is to bring the Greens, Swedish Minority, and one of the "Other" parties into it. Both are somewhat likely, and will depend on how the negotiations progress. My money is on a coalition over the centre, including the Social Democrats, Moderates, and Nordic Liberals.

Friday, April 12, 2019

Australia to vote on May 18th (and a finland 'projection')

Australia will be holding elections this spring after all. As such I'd like to outline the schedule for the next few weeks.

14th - Finland
16th - Alberta
17th - Indonesia
21st - Ukraine
23rd - PEI
May 2nd - UK Local elections
8th - South Africa
18th - Australia
19th - India (final round)
26th - Belgium
June 17th - Denmark


Finland has not had many polls; but using the latest poll and adding the current trendline to it, we get the following numbers:

40 - Social Democrats
36 - Nationalists
32 - Moderates
32 - Nordic Liberalism
24 - Greens
16 - Left
10 - Swedish Minority
10 - Christian Democrat

These numbers are quick and rough estimates, so take them with a grain of salt. Regardless, 101 is needed for a majority. This would give the Social Democrats the prime position. The last government they were in was a grand coalition covering the centre, where they were one of the Jr Partners. Prior to this they made up the bulk of a government headed by the Centre Party, the Nordic Liberals. The last government they lead was also across the centre.

A coalition between the Social Democrats, Moderates, and Liberals is thus possible. However, given history, it is also possible that a more left leaning coalition of the Social Democrats, Centre Party, Greens, and the Swedish Party, could form.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Israel - full results

Sorry for the short post; but I just wanted to break the parties down into their component parts, so that people can see where those member parties stand in the event the larger party breaks apart.

36 - Likud
15 - Yesh Atid (B&W)
14 - Resilience (B&W)
8 - Shas
6 - Telem (B&W)
6 - Labour
5 - Yisrael Beiteinu
4 - Agudat Israel (UTJ)
4 - Hadash (Arab Oppo)
4 - Meretz
4 - Kulanu
3 - Degel HaTorah (UTJ)
3 - Jewish Home (United Right)
2 - Ta'al (Arab Oppo)
2 - Tkuma (United Right)
2 - Balad (Arab List)
2 - UAL (Arab List)

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Alberta "Projection"

This will likely be the only projection I do of Alberta (unless we get a ton of polls in the last few days here) and its not a poll average; rather, its based on my gut feeling that the polls are over-estimating Jason Kenney.

Khan is likely to take his own seat. This is a change from when the election started; but he seems to be doing a well enough job at the campaign to gain a seat for himself.

The Alberta Party as well is doing well, and as such, will likely take multiple seats. Which seats remains hard to say, but these are the three that make the most sense to me at the current time.

Due to what I expect to be UCP weakness, the FCP wins a seat as does Strankman.

Israel - election results

First a quick note that an Alberta "projection" will come out in a few days. Now, on to Israel.

Counting is still being completed, and so some of these may change by a seat or two, and parties right on the edge of the threshold (Arab List and New Right) might find themselves swapping places, but, otherwise, the results are as follows:

35 - Likud
35 - Blue & White
8 - Shas
8 - UTJ
6 - Arab Opposition
6 - Labour
5 - Yisrael Beiteinu
5 - United Right
4 - Meretz (3.64%)
4 - Kunalu (3.56%)
4 - Arab List (3.46%)
0 - New Right (3.14%)
0 - Zehut (2.51%)
0 - Gesher (1.74%)
next largest party on 0.11% of the vote

Grouping this, we end up with results as follows.

35 - Likud
35 - Blue & White
16 - Orthodox
10 - Arabs
10 - Progressives
10 - Pro-Bibi Right
4 - Moderates

Further logical grouping shows us the result of the election

61 - Pro-Bibi
45 - Pro-Gantz
10 - Arabs
4 - Moderates

As such, Netanyahu has effectively been re-elected.

Saturday, April 6, 2019

Israeli election - coalitions

An interesting, somewhat explosive article, in Haaretz, outlines some coalition possibilities. 

Lets start with who is willing to coalition with either side, using these numbers from my last post:

44 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
38 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)

If we combine those willing to coalition with either side, we get the following:

55 - Gantz (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz + Arabs)
49 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right + Shas + New Right)
16 - Either (UTJ + Zehut + Kulanu)

While UTJ (to my knowledge) has not ruled out a coalition with Gantz, for many reasons, it makes more sense to lump them into the Bibi camp.

55 - Gantz (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz + Arabs)
55 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right + Shas + New Right + UTJ)
10 - Either (Zehut + Kulanu)
This is where we run into the problem that both Kulanu and Zehut want the finance portfolio. It is quite possible, however, that Zehut could be convinced to join at another price. So what would these two alternative possible governments look like.



65 seat Bibi government
29 - Likud
6 - United Right
6 - UTJ
5 - New Right
5 - Shas
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu

This would be a terribly unstable government prone to infighting and likely would not last very long; with another election thus being likely in early 2020.



65 seat Gantz government
29 - Blue & White
10 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
5 - Meretz
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
4 - Arab List

This government however would be nearly impossible. It would require both arab parties for a comfortable majority (65 seats) and at least the Tibi-Hadash alliance for a bare majority (61) Gantz himself has said he is not keen on a coalition with the arab parties, and trying to get the more moderate parties (Kulanu and Zehut) on board with pro-arab policies would be difficult if not impossible. This government would likely not even be able to form



Option 3 - Defections

29 - Likud or Blue&White
10 - Defectors
26 - Others (United Right + UTJ + New Right + Shas + Yisrael Beiteinu, or, Labour + Combined Arabs + Meretz) 

More likely coming from Blue&White and going to Likud than the opposite, it is possible that a subset of MK's from either 'side' could break off from their parties to form their own, new, grouping. The group perhaps most susceptible to this is either Blue & White, potentially involving Moshe Ya'alon, with an Anti-bibi faction from Likud being much less likely. It is also possible, especially from the smaller parties with very large-personalty leaders (New Right, Kulanu, Zehut, and Yisrael Beiteinu) could have their MK's abandon the leader if they feel he has put the wrong foot forward. 


Regardless, this is likely going to be one of the more interesting and exciting elections and coalition formations in Israel.




Thursday, April 4, 2019

Israel election projection

Scenario 1 - Gantz!

In this scenario, voters have concluded that Gantz is a good choice. This scenario most closely matches the polls as they stood today; the last day of polling. This sees little change from now to the election, and little to no "surprises". 

30 - Blue & White
28 - Likud
10 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
6 - New Right
6 - UTJ
5 - Zehut
5 - Shas
5 - United Right
5 - Kulanu
5 - Meretz
4 - Arab List
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu


The end result of this in terms of possible coalitions is as follows.

45 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
37 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)

*Gantz has indicated he does not want to enter into a coalition with Arab parties.

This is continued below.



Scenario 2 - Gantz?

In this scenario, voters still have reservations about Gantz. The result of this is that left-progressive types vote for parties outside of Blue & White, Labour is up as a result, as is Meretz. The United Right also gets a boost as "not voting" is an option, and if people have reservations about Gantz, those thinking of "not voting" might well decide to vote. This boosts the vote for all right-wing parties, with United Right being close to this level of support. Yisrael Beiteinu however drops below the threshold. This is in large part due to how their voters seem to behave in polling; indicating that any rush to Likud - as you might want to do to ensure they are the largest party - would harm the party.

32 - Likud
26 - Blue & White
12 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
6 - United Right
6 - New Right
6 - UTJ
6 - Meretz
5 - Zehut
5 - Shas
5 - Kulanu
4 - Arab List
0 - Yisrael Beiteinu


44 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
38 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)


As you can see, this is very close to the result in Scenario 1, with a difference of a single seat.

Any Progressive alliance would require the two more centrist parties, Zehut and Kulanu, which would increase their numbers to 54 or 55. The final party will be very difficult to find. New Right might have demands Meretz can not live with, much less Labour. If New Right is swapped for Meretz, this brings us to 55 seats in both scenarios, and this would still require an additional party, such as one or both orthodox parties, but this would be difficult of Zehut is to remain.

Bibi has options of his own. The orthodox parties bring him up up to 49 or 48. New Right would bring this to 55/54, but is dependant on Bennett and Bibi patching things up. From there, again, things get complicated. Kulanu is a harder sell given that Bibi is being charged with corruption. Zehut is also difficult to get on side if there are plans to keep the Orthodox parties.

the end result is that 5 parties; UTJ, Shas, New Right, Zehut, and Kulanu, will end up deciding who the next government is.



Of course, this all assumes that Gantz will stick to his promise to not sit in a Bibi government.


edited to add - I forgot to clarify that the projection is "final" as Israeli law prohibits polls in the final 5 days of a campaign.

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Ukraine, Israel, etc, and why I don't do US politics much

UKRAINE:
Zelensky, as expected, won the first round of the presidential election, taking 30.2% of the vote. Incumbent Present, Poroshenko, managed to come second at 15.9%, beating former PM Tymoshenko, at 13.4%, who had been polling ahead of him for most of the election.

Its very likely Zelensky wins the second round as well. April 21st is the date for that vote. Parliamentary elections in the country take place in the fall.



ISRAEL:
We are nearing the end of the polling period (April 4th) for the election (April 9th) but the trend continues to be that noted earlier, and a Likud victory is more likely now than it was a few weeks ago, mostly due to voters who had considered Blue & White looking to other options instead. Interestingly, Zehut does seem pretty solid ahead of the threshold.



FINLAND:
There have been a grand total of 2 polls (that I have access to) since the election really began on the 8th of March. I simply lack the data to speak on this.



INDONESIA:
To put it bluntly, there are too many other elections with a greater rate of interest going on right now for me to cover this election in detail.



THAILAND:
I am keeping an eye on the "election" here, but it does not seem free or fair. I may do an update when a new government is formed.



SPAIN:
Mostly stable in the context we are following since the last updates.



USA:
To put it mildly, the main reason I don't cover the US more is that the first question that comes to my mind when I think of the Finnish election is "Where is all the polls". The Thai elections "how many votes did the parties actually take". The Spanish election "will it be PSOE and C's?". For America? The question I have in mind right now is "Why can't Biden be the nominee due to his non-consensual touching of women when Trump can be despite his non-consensual touching of women?"

I hope that makes it clear why I steer clear of this country like the plague.



Sunday, March 31, 2019

Alberta "Projection"

I've made a "projection" map.


This is based largely on riding math; but, there are some important caveats.

This shows, basically, the largest number of ridings that can be won by the Alberta Party. These 5 ridings have "interesting" candidates in them, and, if the party wins 5 seats, it will be these 5. Beyond that, at this time, I can't see any way the Alberta Party wins 6 or more seats.

As such I've simply decided that these 8 seats will be won by their smaller parties without using any polling data.

Beyond that, I've also simply decided the UCP wins 45 seats, as this is a "narrow majority". One to be the speaker, and 44 other members, compared to 42 for the opposition. As such the NDP needs 34.

This is not based on any polling math. It's simply what a "Narrow UCP" majority looks like where the "Smaller parties do well".

Regardless, as a possible outcome - that the UCP could win a narrow majority - I wanted to share this.

Saturday, March 30, 2019

Is the UCP really doing that well in Edmonton?

No, and I hope to show why.

First off let me present to you my Alberta Map



It is not done. I need to, for example, add a colour for the Alberta Party, as the Greens are not going to take Calgary Elbow. And it is not showing a projection yet; it is simply showing the basic results from last time. These results have been slightly modified however and don't perfectly match the combined WR+PC vote for the UCP. Sadly when my HDD died in October I lost all my data, but found a datasource I'd made in July. I thus need to reconstruct what I was working on and try to remember where I was in the process.

Regardless I want to introduce you, quickly, to Census Metropolitan Areas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Census_geographic_units_of_Canada#Census_metropolitan_areas

This is what statistics canada considers a "city". These definitions can seem nonsensical to the observer.

For example the Toronto CMA is often thought of as equal to the "Greater Toronto Area". Despite that, the Toronto CMA does not include Whitby, or Burlington, two areas often included in the GTA, while it does include Orangeville, an area often thought of as too far away and rural to be part of the GTA.

The same is true in Alberta for Edmonton and Calgary. To help, I've added darker boundaries to the map to show where the CMA boundaries are. Note: these are not where the exact boundaries are, the boundaries cut ridings in half often; instead, these are ridings where half or more of the voters are within the CMA.

Calgary does not look so bad but Edmonton is a mess!

Lets get some numbers. Now I caution you again that my numbers are modified already. The PC+WR vote will not equal the UCP vote; but it will come close, within a few percentage points.

For the actual municipalities of Edmonton and Calgary the popular vote balance between the top two parties is 53.6%-37.0% and 40.8%-49.5% respectively. For the CMAs however, we get 50.8%-41.7% ad 39.5%-51.5%. Both become more UCP friendly, Edmonton by a larger margin.

If the UCP and NDP were tied in the Edmonton CMA, the NDP would still have a 7 point lead within the municipality of Edmonton.

Lastly, I want to note the population shares.

In 2016 (the last census) Alberta had a population of 4.067 million.
The Edmonton CMA had 1.321 million and the Calgary CMA had 1.392 million. This left 1.354 million in the "rural areas".

In the same year, Edmonton the municipality had 0.933 million while Calgary had 1.239 million, leaving 1.895 million in "rural areas"

If you use rounding, you get ratios of 1.3-1.4-1.4 for the CMAs, and 0.9-1.2-1.9 for the Municipalities.

So, now that we've established that any poll of the Edmonton CMA will have the UCP higher than in any poll of Edmonton as a Municipality, lets find out if the pollsters are using CMA or Municipal boundaries for their poll "regions". We will look at these 4 polls.

https://thinkhq.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Eye-on-Alberta-March-2019-Media-Release.pdf

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-03/nr-alberta-election-dt1-3-19-2019.pdf

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019.03.19-Alberta-Release.pdf

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gain-nine-points-since-january-but-ucp-lead/

Only ThinkHQ explicitly say, so, how are we going to find out?

Weights.

Angus Reid has the weights, of 201-214-390, which when rounded, are 2-2-4. This is much closer to our Municipal ratio. Angus Reid has a strong NDP lead in Edmonton.

Ipsos has the weights of 296-311-293, or rounded to 3-3-3, which is much closer to our CMA number, Ipsos has the UCP and NDP neck and neck in Edmonton.

Mainstreet has the weights of 338-474-348 which rounds to 3-5-3, which is... weird to say the least, but more closely matches our CMAs, have Edmonton neck and neck.

ThinkHQ which claims to use the CMAs has weighting of 377-417-401 which rounds to 4-4-4 which does match our CMAs; has the NDP with a strong lead in the Edmonton CMA.


TLDR: The NDP is leading in "Edmonton" if "Edmonton" means "The City" and not "The CMA"

Thursday, March 28, 2019

PEI and Green areas of strength

A friend asked me earlier why the Green Party does better in the central portion of PEI. There are many reasons for this. I thought I'd go over them in today's post.

First, note this map:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1xF_wVrDqe4EFZEINoEAu5JOGTUaHiZJO&usp=sharing

Also, check some PEI soil data

http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/publications/surveys/pe/pe1b/index.html

Why does this matter?

If you dig into soil data, you'll start to see patterns. For example, areas where the soils are "harder" to farm, such as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palliser%27s_Triangle have had a tendency to back more right-wing candidates, as seen here https://i.imgur.com/SiFZB1O.png

This has not been examined academically, and perhaps this is over-simplified, but my theory is that if you go to work every day, that if only hard work produces results, and that hard work does produce results, you are going to be more liable to think hard work always produces results, and less liable to believe that luck and randomness play roles in success. Compare with if you farm areas with good soils, where bad harvests will be determined by weather, cop disease, infestations, and other things far more "random" than "hard work".

The areas on the PEI map at the top are areas that are still wooded. Generally this is because they are not as productive at being farmland. This is, again, an oversimplification, but it should be noted that the central portion of PEI is more productive agriculturally than the eastern or western ends.

Additionally

you can drive to Charlottetown in about an hour from most of the Island. This is not true west of Summerside. It is even worse in the western portion of Prince county (places like Tignish, Alberton, and O'Leary) where such a drive would take even longer. West Prince has its own more insular political culture from that of the Island as a whole, and while they most certainly have voted for Conservatives in the past, and even for an NDP MLA, they have historically favoured the Liberal party. Having returned 13 non-Liberal MLAs in general elections in the past 100 years vs 52 Liberals.

Kings County meanwhile, is much more "rural" than the rest of the Island on the whole and even has a noticeably lower human footprint. It is thus harder to convince those in an already "green" area, that things need to be more "green"

Lastly

Peter Bevan-Baker, the party leader, lives in this 'central region' of PEI, who has ran for the Malpeque federal riding in the past. His dental practice in Hampton is located nearly halfway between Charlottetown and Summerside on PEI's southern coast. Simple natural friend networks would mean people there know him best.

Those factors, plus the fact that the Greens have been building up their support in the area, as, in large part, the area is more easily accessible than either the west or the east (due to literally being centrally located) help explain why rural areas between Charlottetown and Summerside support the Green Party more than those areas on the fringes.



Why are the Greens so strong in Charlottetown and Summerside?

That's a much simpler question to answer; urban voters, and their typical preference for progressive style policies. If anyone is going to give change a chance, it will be voters in urban areas.

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

PEI: re-balanced, plus additional maps

I've re-balanced the riding data to reflect the current crop of candidates, which has changed things slightly. I've also included 3 additional maps showing what could happen.

(Note the purple is for Bush Dumville, Independent, in District 14)








Tuesday, March 26, 2019

PEI headed to the polls on April 23rd

Having found a second error on my map, I've decided to make a new post!

The proper map is here

To help clarify that this is, in fact, the accurate map, I've included the actual numbers I'm working with:


You will notice that the Green result in district 26 is 0%. This is because this uses transposed results (thank you Kyle Hutton for those) and the Greens had 0 votes in the area.

I will be making adjustments to this so that a more realistic base is used - for example, places NDP star candidates ran in the last election do not have star candidates this time, and vice versa in other areas. - For now, however, I will stick with this so I can get the projection out in a timely manner.

PEI goes to the polls

Reports are that the writ for the PEI election will be dropped tonight (within the hour it seems) for an election roughly a month from now.

I wanted to quickly update my projection, which is as follows:

NOTE - THE ORIGINAL MAP HAD AN ERROR; THIS IS THE REPLACEMENT
my spreadsheet was literally mis-aligned. It is not districts 9 and 20 the greens are just barely winning, its districts 10 and 21. It is not 8 and 4 they could win, its 9 and 5 they could win.



This is 11 Greens, and 8 for both the Liberals and Tories.

It's possible districts 5 and 9 will go Green as well, but that would still not quite be a Majority.

If the polls are right, we are looking at a minority government, no matter who wins, and given the small sample sizes, PEI's penchant for voting based on local issues, and the natural imbalance built into FPTP, nearly anything is truly possible this election. It would not surprise be if the Greens took 20 seats, and it would not surprise me if they took only 1. The same is true for the other parties, except, for them, I could see a total wipeout. Even the NDP could win a seat, or two!!

Regardless, my current projection, is for a Green Minority.

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Israel Polls - all party data

We now have 3 polls with all party data; including one that has Gesher meeting the threshold. A 4th poll has all parties except the Arab List meeting the mark; but mathematically, Gesher's 4 seats can be assigned to fill in that gap for the purposes of averaging.

The results are as follows:

(comparison to last projection)

31 - Blue & White (-1)
28 - Likud (-1)
9 - Labour
8 - Arab Opposition (+1)
7 - UTJ
6 - Union (-1)
6 - Right
5 - Meretz (-1)
5 - Shas (-1)
4 - Zehut
4 - Kulanu
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu
4 - Arab List

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

General updates; Alberta, PEI, and more.

Israel: The trend noted in my last post, that of Blue and White falling to Likud levels or below continues. Likud itself may even be up by a seat or two. We've also finally had some polls where all parties that might make the threshold, have made the threshold. Two of them in fact. I will include the averages of such polls in my next Israel post.



Spain: The right is inching ever closer to the magic number needed for a majority, and the current trends suggest they'll reach it shortly.



Italy: The bottom has fallen out from under M5S and they've dropped to PD levels. This comes as Lega numbers are stable, causing a drop for the combined support for the governing parties. The main impact of this trend is the increasing likelihood that in the next election, the League and its jr ally, the various Conservative parties (Berlusconi leads the main one) could win a majority.



Ukraine: Zelensky will make the second round according to all polling, the only question is who joins him. Tymoshenko seems most likely, but Poroshenko may end up doing so instead, and there's even a extraordinarily slim chance Boyko could. Regardless of who does, Zelensky looks set to win the second round as well.



Alberta: The election has been called in the province and will take place on April 16th. I will, of course, be covering the election in depth. Current polls, which are a few days hold, have the UCP with a 10 to 20 point lead; but given recent scandals and the tendency of the NDP to jump in Alberta polls at a writ drop, I would not be surprised to see the NDP and UCP tied, or near tied, in polls that come out in the next few days. What really matters is how the other parties will do, as the only reasonable way the NDP wins this election is if the smaller parties have a larger share of the vote.



PEI: No official election call yet, but yes, I'm keeping an eye on things. I grew up on PEI, and understand some of the nuances of its politics. Polls by their nature can be inaccurate in such a small place. Regardless, polls show that the Greens are leading. PEI has never had more than 3 members of the legislature at any one time that have sat outside the Government and Official Opposition caucuses; now is one such time as there are two Green members and one Independent. It is all but certain that each of the 3 parties will elect at least 4 MLAs in the election, making a first for PEI. It's also likely that the winning party, whomever that turns out to be, will have under 50% of the seats, also something that has never happened on PEI (1890 saw the two parties tie in seat count, meaning each took 50% of the seats) Once there is an official call, I will start regular updates about PEI.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Israel updates

A number of things have happened since my last update. The arab list parties were banned, then unbanned. Yisrael Beiteinu is back above the threshold. Zehut seems to be staying above the threshold. Labour has pushed to third. And Blue & White is losing its lead.

Changes from last projection shown in brackets.

32 - Blue & White (-3)
29 - Likud (-1)
9 - Labour (+2)
7 - Arab Opposition (-2)
7 - UTJ (+-0)
7 - Union (+1)
6 - Right (+-0)
6 - Meretz (+-0)
6 - Shas (+1)
4 - Kulanu (-1) [see below]
4 - Arab List (+-0) [see below]
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu (+4) [see below]
4 - Zehut (+4) [see below]

you will notice this adds up to more than 120. This is because the parties that are, on average, making the threshold, will get 4 seats if they do so, but we've yet to have a poll where all 4 of these parties have met the threshold, and, since deadline day, only one poll where all 4 have failed to make the threshold. As such there is a lot of "mix and match" going on, and this seemed like the best way to present that data at this time.

The changes we are seeing are due to more voters looking at other options on the left. Meretz has polled as high as 8 in some recent polls, and Labour as high as 10. 

The end result of this, in terms of coalition formation, may be that the parties that do or do not make the threshold will have a huge role to play in who the next Prime Minister is.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Summary of upcoming elections

March 31: Ukraine, President

Given the polls, two of these three people will make it to the final round: Zelensky, Tymoshenko, Poroshenko - the only question is which two, and polls over the next week or two should help clear that up.



April 9: Israel, Parliament

There has been some interesting movement in the polls, that I plan to detail in a post later this week.



April 14: Finland, Parliament

Need some additional polling for any conclusions, but PS seems to be on the way up.



April 17: Indonesia, Parliament and President

The Incumbent President seems on the way to re-election easily. In Parliament, PDI-P is up in the polls from the last election, while Golkar is down. Gerindra is up, and Demokrat is down. The main result of this is to strengthen the leading party in both the Pro-Widodo and Pro-Prabowo camps, with Gerindra (right wing, Prabowo) and PDI-P (left wing, Widodo) now the two leading parties according to the polls. Widodo and his allies are expected to win roughly 62-38.



April 28: Spain, Parliament

The polls are fairly consistent in saying that the right-wing alliance will be able to win 160-170 seats; while the left is closer to 145-155. The 'problem' is that 176 seats are needed for a majority and neither side has that. This could leave the regional parties as kingmakers; the only problem here is that national vs regional power squabbles is what caused the government to collapse in the first place.



May 8: South Africa, Parliament

Polls are scarce in South Africa, but suggest that while ANC will retain their majority, EFF may end up doubling in size, but that DA is likely to remain the largest opposition party.



May 18: (maybe) Australia, Parliament

In order for Australia to hold a 'traditional' election of the House and half the Senate, they'd have to do it on May 18th. However, should the government decide, it could simply hold only the half-Senate elections on this date, and hold off until November for house elections (which polls suggest they would lose)

Friday, March 8, 2019

Update - Change in Spain, Israel, and more

Japan: the old Democratic Party has managed to snatch up another upper house member, breaking the tie with the CDP for second place in that chamber. Elections are coming up in July for that chamber where, unless the polls are very wrong, the CDP will solidify a second place.

Italy: M5S seems to be rushing to meet PD in the polls with a recent Noto poll on March 5th suggested only a single point separates them.

Ukraine: No new polls yet; but some minor Presidential candidates have dropped to endorsed various others. The top three seem to continue to be Poroshenko the incumbent, Zelensky, who wants to negotiate directly with Russia to end the donbass situation, and Tymoshenko, who wants Ukraine to join NATO and the EU. Boyko is 4th in most polls, and is famous for being called a russian puppet, and for physically assaulting someone after being called a russian puppet. Boyko's polling makes it unlikely he would be in any runoff between the final two. The election takes place at the end of this month. I will be posting more about it before then.

South Africa: Polling does suggest EFF is going to do better in the next election; but also suggests DA is going to retain its second spot.

and in the big two

Spain: Vox has been polling better and better while Podemos has been falling in the polls; it is now to the point that Vox is overtaking Podemos in some polls. With Podemos falling, they no longer are expected to win enough seats to push PSOE over the edge into a majority; however Vox, even when combined with C's and PP, also do not have a majority, keeping both the obvious left and obvious right alliances outside of majority territory. That being said, a grand coalition of PSOE and PP would have a majority easily.

Israel: Yisrael Beiteinu has fallen too far below the threshold too often to be considered by me a "party that will win seats". As such I am projecting them to take 0 seats from this election. On the flip side, Zehut, the Libertarian Party, has been inching towards the threshold and has even managed to pass it in a TNS/Kan poll. I'm still not counting them among the seat winners, but if trends continue, I may have to.

Projection thus updated to:

35 - Blue & White
30 - Likud
9 - Arab Opposition
7 - Labour
7 - UTJ
6 - Union
6 - Right
6 - Meretz
5 - Shas
5 - Kulanu
4 - Arab List

Sunday, March 3, 2019

General update - everything is stable

Polls in Israel are relatively stable. They are relatively stable in Spain. Even in Japan they are stable; note that Japanese polling is "weird" and you need to know how to read it.

In fact they are "stable" in every country I follow.

Stable, however, is relative.

South Africa, Denmark, Finland, and Portugal, have ALL seen very recent moves in the polls; but in each case, we need more polls but we can declare that significant.

Germany, Poland, and Italy all have poll movements that continue in the same direction that I've already noted.

In short, a key reason for the lack of updates it simply that there is nothing to update. Everything is quiet right now.

That being said here is what I'm keeping my eye on

1 - Is Yisrael Beiteinu's dropping below the threshold temporary (will end in a week or two) or permanent (will continue to the election)

2 - Is the current trend in Spain, of both the Left and Right having just below what is needed for a majority, temporary or permanent?

3 - How far will the SPD rise in Germany now that's it surpassed the Greens?

4 - When will M5S fall below PD, or, will it stop before it even reaches that level; if it does fall below them does M5S vanish?

5 - Is the recent poll in South Africa legit (indicative of a trend) or a one off (not indicative of a trend)

6 - How high will the new party in Poland get?

7 - Is PS's rise in Finland legit or a one off?

8 - Is the drop in the People's Party in Denmark legit or a one off?

And If these things are permanent and/or legit, I'd want to know why (IE I will do some research and tell you why)

For now however, all I have are questions.

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

By-elections

The by-elections today, federally, in Canada, are still counting ballots. As such none of these results are final. Additionally, its quite likely that the exact percentages will change, but here are the results as of now. Keep in mind that the advance polls don't seem to be in yet, and, hopefully, when they are, turnout will spike.

BURNABY SOUTH (196 of 196) 30% turnout
39% - NDP (+4%) - Singh
26% - LIB (-8%)
23% - CPC (-4%)
11% - PPC (+11%)

YORK--SIMCOE (136 of 136) 20% turnout
54% - CPC (+4%)
29% - LIB (-7%)
8% - NDP (-1%)
4% - PC (+4%) - Baxter
3% - GRN (+-0%)
2% - PPC (+2%)

OUTREMONT (170 of 170) 21% turnout
40% - LIB (+6%)
26% - NDP (-18%)
13% - GRN (+9%)
11% - BQ (+3%)
7% - CPC (-3%)
2% - PPC (+2%)

Singh, the NDP leader, has won his by-election. As I mentioned in my earlier post, that's all that matters tonight. The PPC result in Burnaby is unimportant, as is the NDP result in Outremont. The former does not indicate PPC strength in BC, nor does the latter indicate NDP weakness in Quebec.

Interestingly, Dorian Baxter, the PC candidate, took 4th in York-Simcoe. This white immigrant from Kenya has run for the party before, and is a well known elvis impersonator, and serves as the pastor for the Christ the King Graceland Independent Anglican Church of Canada in Newmarket, which neighbours the riding.


updated with final results

Monday, February 25, 2019

Quick post on Singh and Burnaby South

Apologies in that I did not have the free time I planned to today; but wanted to simply say that Singh needs to win this by-election

The results should be available here when the polls close

regardless, right now, all signs point to him winning.

Singh needs to win. If the NDP somehow wins Outremont that is also notable. Also notable is if the Liberals somehow win York-Simcoe. Very notable would be if the Greens, Peoples Party, or some other small party wins any of these.

What will not be notable or of any importance is things like how close the Liberals came to winning in Burnaby; the Peoples Party finishing second, even if in all 3 by-elections; how poorly the NDP does in Outremont or how poorly the Liberals do in York-Simcoe; and so on.


Sunday, February 24, 2019

Updates; all the 'other' countries

Lets start small and work our way up to the bigger stories.

Here at home, Jagmeet Singh, NDP leader, faces a by-election tomorrow. I will detail the risks in a post tomorrow, but suffice it to say that if he loses, he's done as leader.



In Poland a new party, Wiosna (spring) has been formed; but it threatens to unbalance the '2 party' balance that had been developing there.



Italy continues its existing trends. I will let you know when M5S has fallen close enough to PD to signify a change.



In Germany the SPD is bouncing back towards second place, currently held by the Greens.



New Zealand's governing Labour party is doing well in the polls and could even eke out a majority pending their exact support levels.



Ukraine remains a place to watch; Zelensky seems to have the edge at this time.



United Russia has still yet to bounce back. Math suggests they'd still win 275 seats, compared to 95 Communists, 55 Nationalists, and 25 for Just Russia.



Labor retains a lead in Australia, but its slowly shrinking.



Finland remains interesting. The government is a coalition of KESK, KOK, and PS, or, was at foundation. At the time the three parties held a combined 57% of the vote. Since then, PS was removed from the coalition and a splinter party of theirs, SIN, has retained its cabinet seats. In the latest polls, the 3 coalition parties sit at 34.3%. Even if PS were added to that, it would not reach 50%.



Today there are some interesting votes going on. Okinawa held a referendum, which due to Japan being so far east of me (on the other side of the date line) we know the results of; the "no" side won, which indicated opposition to the US military base in the area.

Additionally, there is a referendum in Cuba, and local elections in part of Italy (Sardinia), alongside elections in Moldova and Senegal. Nigeria voted yesterday but results are not yet available, and the British Virgin Islands votes tomorrow, with Chicago going to the polls on Tuesday.

Friday, February 22, 2019

More on Israel

A projection update, but also a few more notes on nomenclature.

The parties that are running on a united list with Jewish Home are officially not known as the "Jewish Home List" and are running as the overly long "Union of Right-Wing Parties". I will call them simply the "Union".

As such I present the updated projection:

35 - Blue & White
29 - Likud
9 - Arab Opposition
7 - Labour
7 - UTJ
6 - Union
6 - Right
5 - Shas
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu
4 - Meretz
4 - Kulanu*
4 - Arab List*
0 - Gesher*
0 - Zehut*


* = danger of not meeting the threshold

Adding in the most logical single coalition partner, Gantz has 42 to Bibi's 35, but the latter has better relations with the more religious parties, which could bring him up to 47.

Interestingly, Blue & White plus Likud would have a majority; but Blue & White opposes Netanyahu; however should Likud decide he is more trouble than he is worth, it could lead to an interesting situation.

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Deadline day brings final Israeli realignment

The candidate deadline in Israel, technically still an hour away, has brought a major re-alignment to the parties competing in this election.

Lets start with the Arab parties.

The Joint List has broken. Joining with Ahmad Tibi and his Ta'al party is Hadash, the Communists. The two share an somewhat anti-zionist view. On the other side are Balad and Ra'am. While these parties are not exactly "zionist" they do not oppose zionism as stringently. Considering that a majority of Arab voters would like to see an Arab party in government, but that Tibi himself seems to be the most popular Israeli Arab politician at this time, it will be an interesting election to see which 'side' does better.

When it comes to nomenclature, I've decided the two names I will use are the "Arab Opposition" for Ta'al and Hadash, representing their unwillingness to join even a left-wing government, and the "Arab List", as Ra'am's official name is still the "United Arab List", and Ra'am and Balad are the rump of what's left of the Joint List.

Next, we go to perhaps the bigger change, the union of Benny Gantz's Hosen L'Yisrael and Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid into the new "Blue & White" list. The alliance includes a deal to rotate the Premiership, meaning first Gantz, and then Lapid, would serve 2 years as PM.

I won't be updating the projection today as these changes are far too fresh to have been properly polled; but spot polls show Blue and White beating Likud by 36 to 30, 36 to 26, or 35 to 32, pending on the pollster.

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Updates; UK and Israel

The split finally happened in the UK, but it was smaller than expected. 7 Labour MPs quit the party to form "The Independent Group" or TIG. They were later joined by an 8th Labour MP.

This morning, 3 Conservative MPs have left their party to join TIG.

Having members from both sides will help to bolster the force as a new centrist group, but TIG is explicitly not a party. I will continue to monitor the situation.




Meanwhile in Israel, Tzipi Livni's career in politics is over, at least for now. After failing to merge into Gantz's Hosen L'Yisrael, she has thrown in the towel and withdrawn her party, Hatnuah, from the election. This will free up some much needed votes from the 1% or 2% of Israelis who were backing the party.

Jewish Home meanwhile have announced their plan to run as a single list with the parties Yachad, Otzma Yehudit, and Tkuma. Tkuma had run with the party in the last election and has two MKs. Otzma and Yachad ran on a single list in 2015 but narrowly failed to meet the threshold. Both parties contain Kahanist factions, which want a one state solution where non-jews have no voting rights. It is likely with this backing the party will, in fact, pass the threshold in the election.