Sunday, October 18, 2015

Montreal adjustment and a sneak peak

Morning update in a few hours.

I've been working through the night on Quebec, due to a tip by a reader, and have some significantly different results for Montreal this morning. A sneak peak?

52% NDP
29% Liberal

Tom Mulcair will hold his seat.

In addition, at this point (before any early-AM polls have been added) no party has gained or lost more than 4 seats from the previous projection, and while the Liberals are, as I expected, out of Majority territory, they are tantalizingly close to it.


  1. I don't think the morning polls (Ekos and Nanos) will make much of a difference. Unless I missed it, Ipsos-Reid is MIA...

  2. Mulcair did end up winning his own seat (as leaders *usually* do), but it turned out to be only about a 10-point win this time. Mulcair ended up falling below 50% in his riding, whereas this time it was Justin Trudeau who got over 50%.