Saturday, October 17, 2015

17OCT2015 Projection - It's over

Yesterday, we did not have enough polls to declare a winner.

Today, we do.
The Liberal Party of Canada has a large enough lead that it is the opinion of this projectionist, that no other party can come out of the election with a plurality of seats.

In addition, the projection, contains a shocking first.

We are currently looking at a Liberal majority government.
A very narrow one, 1 seat, but, it is a majority.

Newcomers to this blog will quickly find out I am not one who really writes much. My personal belief is that it is right to present you with the data, give you some basic rationale, and let you decide why things have happened. As such, I don't have much to say, and thus, will get right to the maps :

Yes, that star NDP MP is going to lose to the Liberals. No, I didn't forget to adjust for their personal vote.

Yes, the Liberals might take a majority of votes cast in Calgary.

Yes, Tom Mulcair loses his seat at this rate.

Yes, really.

Yes, really.

This stems from a the Liberals picking up just another point or two in both Ontario and Quebec, and that alone seems enough to give them their majority.

Mulcair likely won't resign as leader, though, anything could happen. NDP leaders have lost their seats before (many, many times) and always find a willing MP who will offer them a seat. Possible seats Mulcair could jump to include Saint-Hyacinthe, Toronto-Danforth, Edmonton Strathcona, or any other seat the NDP won, where the MP is not all that keen on sitting for 4 years as a member of the 3rd party.

I will be posting another projection tomorrow morning, and a final projection Monday before the polls open in Newfoundland, but may also do a Sunday Night projection.


  1. I take it that you are assuming a continuation of a Liberal trend over the weekend. Right now I don't see a 6 point lead (the most I have seen in any poll) as sufficient to get a maybe and eight likely. I've tried to see if the Liberal trend is narrow (i.e. based in Ontario) or more generally across the country. I have the Liberals in a strong minority right now and will give 99% odds, 19 time out of 20 that they will form a government on Monday.

    1. This is based on how I expect undecided voters to split. I may need to adjust that a bit better.