Monday, September 26, 2022

italy election results

119 FdI (nationalist and hard right)
66 Lega (populist and hard right)
45 FI (right wing)
7 other right
total - 237

69 PD (progressive)
12 GreenLeft (left wing)
4 other left
total - 85

52 M5S (left populist)
21 A-IV (moderate liberal)
5 others
total - 78


The short of it is that FdI and Meloni has won the election, but she will require the support of both Lega (Salvini), and FI (Berlusconi) to form government; but, these parties already agreed to such a thing prior to the election. 


Note, the results in the senate are similar. Right wing majority, but, the 3 larger right-wing parties all needed for a majority. 

Sunday, September 25, 2022

Thursday, September 15, 2022

small sweden update

 The sitting Social-Democrat Prime Minister has resigned, effectively signalling that the right-wing bloc around M (Moderates) has "won" the election. More as it comes. 

Monday, September 12, 2022

Sep2022 Sweden election results

24 - V - Hard Left
108 - S - Progressive
18 - MP - Green Party
24 - C - Agrarian-Liberal
16 - L - Liberal
67 - M - Centre-right
19 - KD - Social Conservative
73 - SD - Hard Right


Unclear what governments can be formed. S+M (the Socialists and the Moderate Party) would also have a majority, but by a single seat. However, the two parties seem to be talking. This would effectively be a "grand coalition" government; and, if I was leader of C (the centre party, which is agrarian-liberal) I would be trying to get in on this, in large part, because my party is between these two policy-wise, and we could not only easily slot in to such a government, but give it boosted numbers.

SD seems to have been the big "winner", but, as the more "extreme" party, its not likely they'll be in government.

However.

SD+M+L+KD technically has a majority by a single seat. SD will push hard for this option. 

My money is on S+M+C, or, another election in a few weeks/months. 

Keep in mind that an implausible V+MP+C+L+M+KD government would not have a majority; meaning either S, or SD, need to be in a government for it to have a majority. 

Lastly, note that Sweden no longer requires a majority for its governments. It is possible for a minority to take office, as has been the case for the last little while. However, like the current government, any new minority could easily 'collapse' and cause a new election.


Saturday, September 10, 2022

sweden election tomorrow.

poll average; no commentary. 

29 - V - Hard Left
98 - S - Progressive
23 - MP - Green Party
26 - C - Agrarian-Liberal
21 - L - Liberal
60 - M - Centre-right
22 - KD - Social Conservative
71 - SD - Hard Right

Friday, September 2, 2022

sweden; 3 poll average

30 - V - Hard Left
101 - S - Progressive
19 - MP - Green Party
26 - C - Agrarian-Liberal
22 - L - Liberal
59 - M - Centre-right
22 - KD - Social Conservative
70 - SD - Hard Right


Election is on the 11th. 149 is needed for a majority.


Unclear what kind of coalition could be formed, but a S-V-MP coalition would have a majority; but that's perhaps not likely. 

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Update! 16AUG2022

 Upcoming elections:

SEP 11 - Sweden - unclear (might not cover)

OCT 03 - Quebec - likely huge CAQ majority (might not cover)

NOV 01 - Israel - Bibi is doing well (will cover)


So yes, I'm not gone; but, as is likely clear by now, the amount I post here has gone way down.