Sunday, May 20, 2018

Ontario, Maximums and Minimums

After additional feedback, I decided to share what I currently have for the maximums and minimums of each party in this election.


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NDP

78 - NDP
40 - PC
6 - LIB





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PC

85 - PC
31 - NDP
8 - LIB





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LIB


48 - LIB
42 - PC
34 - NDP





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There is no Green map as, at current, their maximum is likely 1, nor are there "minimum" maps, as, the effective minimum for each party is shown in the maximums for the other parties; IE around 40 for the Tories, and around 30 for the NDP, with the Libs minimum being a small handful of seats.


Ontario Update - Better math

I've overhauled the math I use to make projections and present a better projection of the coming election using the same basic rules as in my last post.

PC - 59 - 39%
NDP - 57 - 39%
LIB - 8 - 17%






Hopefully the ridings won will make more sense now that the math has been corrected

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Ontario update - (the lack of) movement

Due to reader feedback, I've decided to move back to a full trendline system; which means this is what I expect the end result to be on election day. As such, this result and projections by others will move closer and closer towards one another as election day approaches. I simply expect it will be they moving towards these numbers, and not the other way around.

As such, this is an update to this earlier projection.

In short, what has happened is the NDP has lost 4 seats.

Additionally, as I improve the base math I use to make these projections, some riding winners have been shuffled around.

60 - NDP
57 - PC
7 - LIB






There are a few things to take away.

1 - NDP not growing fast enough
Compared to what I expected, the NDP's growth has been a bit slow over the past three days.

2 - Tories are not falling away yet
In order for the NDP to win a majority they have to knock a few points off the PC Party, this is not yet happening

3 - Liberals still holding ground
They really need to be lower than what we are seeing for the full NDP win to emerge

4 - NDP vote is shifting
The NDP is unreasonably high in the GTA. I've yet to track down exactly why, but will continue to investigate. This contrasts with them being unreasonably low in Eastern Ontario.

Friday, May 18, 2018

Italy - New Government?

Italy may have a new government after M5S and LN appear to have signed a deal to form a coalition.

As mentioned in my previous post on the Italian election, both M5S and LN can be seen as anti-establishment.

M5S and LN would have 170 of the 315 Senators, a majority, and more importantly, 352 of the 630 seats in the lower house, a majority.

Currently, Italy has tax brackets of 23%, 27%, 38%, 41%, and 43%. The new coalition would reduce that to two brackets of 15% and 20%. This idea is not as radical as it may seem as Italy has a large number of tax"payers" who evade income taxes, and this may bring them into the system. Additionally, with a VAT (sales tax) of 22%, a lower share of revenue comes from income taxes than Canada. The parties explicitly plan to fund growth through a deficit.

Perhaps the most striking thing in the proposal is a plan for a sort of "Basic Income" that would see individuals get €780. Due to cost of living differences it can be difficult to translate the currency directly, but from what I can gather, this works out to about $1,200 or so Canadian every month.



I will update this with more as it comes. Additionally, I do plan on looking at results in Iraq, updating the situation in Japan, taking glances at East Timor, Venezuela, Ireland and Barbados.

Sunday, May 13, 2018

Happy Mothers Day - a uniquely Teddy look at his Mom

For Mothers Day I decided to make my mother a gift, one that is unique to me and what I do; I've decided to track her life by the elections she's lived through!

Since Municipal elections have spotty data, I will focus on Federal and Provincial elections, and, in particular, the prospective from the ridings where she lived.



The first election she would have lived through, though as a young child, 1965 Federal Election, at which time she lived in the Danforth riding. That election would see the Liberals under Pearson win 131 seats and a Majority. Danforth voted for the NDP however with 49% of the vote.

The next would be the Provincial election of 1967, which would see Stephen Lewis win Scarborough West for the NDP, ahead of Reg Stackhouse by a margin of 48%-31%. This provincial election returned the sitting PC government to another majority, 69 seats to 28 for the Liberals and 20 for the NDP.

Trudeaumania would strike in 1968 with a Federal Liberal majority, including a Liberal win on the riding of Scarborough West, on 43% of the vote.

This brings us to 1971 Ontario Provincial election which was won by the PC Party with 78 seats, compared to 20 for the Liberals and 19 for the NDP. The election saw Bill Davis, in his first victory, over Robert Nixon of the Liberals, and Stephen Lewis, leader of the NDP. Lewis won the Scarborough West riding with 39% of the vote, ahead of the PC Candidate at 38%, and Frank Faubert for the Liberals, at 23%. Faubert would go on to become Mayor.

Following this the next election she would have lived through was the Federal election of 1972. Famous as results on election night showed a tie, but once all the recounts had completed, the Liberals had won 109 to 107, with 31 for the NDP, 15 for Social Credit, and 2 Independents. Her riding, Scarborough West, was won by the NDP candidate with 36% of the vote, over the Liberal at 33%, and the Tory at 30%

Next on our list would be the federal 1974 election, which saw Trudeau win a majority, and the NDP lose half of their seats. One of those being the massive riding of Scarborough East, where my mother new lived, which went to the Liberals on 47% of the vote.

The news for the NDP would be better provincially in 1975, when they took 38 seats, to 36 for the Liberals, and held the Tories, at 51, to a minority. Scarborough Centre would re-elect its PC MPP on 41% of the vote, compared to 37% for the NDP.

1977 would see the NDP dropped to 3rd, 33 seats, behind the Liberals at 34, and the Tories at 58. Now in Scarborough North, she would again see a sitting PC MPP returned, this time on 50% of the vote.

The 1979 Federal election, which would see Joe Clark and his Tories win a minority, would see the York--Scarborough riding taken by the Tories, away from the Liberals who previously held the area.

The 1980 federal election would see Trudeau return with a majority. In my mother's riding, the incumbent PC MP would be defeated with the losing Liberal in 1979 in York--Scarborough, being elected, 48% of the vote to 38% for the sitting Tory.

In 1981 Mom was living out of the house, in Scarborough West, when the Provincial election hit. Lewis decided not to run for re-election, but the riding was held by the NDP regardless, 42% to 40% for the Tories. This would be Bill Davis' last election as Premier.

This is where our story take a sharp and sudden turn to British Columbia, in time for the 1983 provincial election. Gordon Campbell would be her Mayor, and Bill Bennett of Social Credit would be returned as Premier over Dave Barrett and his NDP. This election would see Vancouver--Little Mountain return its two incumbent Social Credit MLAs to the Legislature. This would have been the first election she was old enough to vote in, but residency requirements may not have allowed her to as she was new to the Province. Additionally, like me, she may not have voted in some of the earliest elections where she had that option. Though no Federal election occurred during her stay in BC, it would be remiss of me not to note her MP was a Tory.

By the time of the 1984 Federal election, I was in her belly! Scarborough East, her riding at the time, would easily stay PC, though under a different candidate. The federal 1984 election is famous for Mulroney's massive victory, where he won 211 seats.

The provincial 1985 election was much closer, Frank Miller lead the Tories to only 52 seats, ahead of David Peterson and the Liberals at 48, and Bob Rae of the NDP at 25. Peterson and Rae would sign a deal and Peterson would be Premier within 2 months. In that election, her riding of Scarborough-Ellesmere elected a NDP MPP who defeated the sitting Tory by only 219 votes.

By the 1987 election, she was now living back in the Scarborough North riding, which elected Alvin Curling, future Speaker, as a Liberal, in an election that returned 95 Liberals, 19 New Democrats, and 16 Tories.

This was followed by the 1988 Federal election where Derek Lee took Scarborough--Rouge River from the Tories with 47% of the vote over their 38%, also defeating NDP candidate Raymond Cho at 14%. This election saw Mulroney win a majority as well.

1990 would see Alvin Curling re-elected, but Bob Rae win a majority, taking 74 seats to 36 for the Liberals and 20 for the Tories.

The 1993 Federal election would be the first I actually recall watching! Our riding of Etobicoke Centre had been home of Michael Wilson, the Tory Finance Minister, but would see Allan Rock of the Liberals win, with over half of the vote, ahead of a second placed Reform Party challenger, and a 5th placed National Party candidate.

By the 1995 Provincial election we would be back in Alvin Curling's riding to see hin re-elected. Mike Harris would famously lead his Tories to a Majority in that election.

This is when our story moves to Prince Edward Island in time for the 1996 Provincial election that would see the Liberal MLA for Evangeline--Miscouche re-elected but the Liberals defeated 18 seats to 8 by the Tories, while the NDP would pick up 1 seat.

In the 1997 election our riding of Egmont would re-elect a Liberal as MP, and the Liberals would narrowly maintain their federal Majority.

2000 would see the provincial riding of Evangeline--Miscouche ditch its sitting Liberal MLA for a PC MLA on a margin of 48% to 45%, which added to the massive government of 26 MLAs vs 1 for the opposition Liberals.

Federally, the 2000 election would see Egmont return its Liberal MP with slightly over half of the vote.

In the 2003 Provincial election my mother, sadly, did not have the chance to vote for me, as, she did not live in the riding in which I ran! Instead her riding of St. Eleanors--Summerside re-elected its PC MLA in an election where the Tories won 23 seats to the Liberals 4.

The federal election of 2004 may have seen the Liberals lose their majority federally, only taking 135 seats to 99 for the Tories, 54 for the Bloc, 19 for the NDP, with 1 Independent, but the Egmont riding was easily held by the Grits on over half of the vote.

2006 would see little change Federally in the riding, with the same MP re-elected, but would usher in a government change with Harper winning a minority for the Tories, 124 seats to 103 for the Liberals, 51 for the Bloc, 29 for the NDP, and 1 Independent.

In the 2007 Provincial election, the Liberals would reverse the tables, taking 23 seats to 4 for the Tories, including Summerside--St. Eleanors, which they won with over half of the vote.

The 2008 Federal election would finally see Egmont go Blue, electing Gail Shea from the Tories by 55 votes. Harper would also increase his majority, taking 143 seats, to 77 for the Liberals, 49 for the Bloc, 37 for the NDP, with 2 Independents.

The 2011 Federal election would see the Tories win a majority, and Gail Shea win a majority in her riding for the Tories.

Provincially in the same year, The Liberals would be re-elected both to government and in the riding by similar margins as the previous election.

The 2015 Federal election would see the Liberals re-take not only a majority government, but the Egmont riding as well, heavily defeating Gail Shea, 49% to 29%.

Our most recent election is the 2015 Provincial election where the Liberals held government, 18 seats to 8 for the Tories, and 1 for the Greens, but only won the riding by 41% of the vote to 36% for the Tories, 12% for the NDP, and 11% for the Greens.



And thus, is the life of my Mom, in Elections.

Keep your own Mom in mind today, and don't forget to give her a call!

Saturday, May 12, 2018

Ontario, May 12th

Quick update to the projection.

60 - PC
48 - NDP
16 - OLP



Reminder that you can play with the numbers yourself here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WvTuHrZOiqcVBQ4VNWPMO03oqfPJCY1H9DGliUtsgL4/edit?usp=sharing

I've added three special formulas to help make the projection more accurate. They are as follows.

FF or Ford Factor. This is the ability of Doug Ford to get people to vote for him in areas where "ford nation" has traditionally strong demographics such as Scarborough.

AFF or Anti-Ford Factor. This is the willingness of Liberal voters to vote NDP to stop Doug Ford. There is no opposite formula to move NDP voters to the Liberals for the simple reason that 2014's Tim Hudak was also "very scary" and, therefore, these specific NDP voters (ones willing to vote Liberal to stop the Tories) are already marked as Liberals due to the fact that I use the 2014 results as a baseline for my spreadsheet.

LSD or Liberal Swing Drop. Looking at the 2014 results for the NDP it becomes clear there are some ridings they do very well in and others they do very poor in. This is not an NDP problem, its a problem for any party with a comparatively small share of the vote. This simulates the inverse of bandwagoning, and, as such, the higher the number, the more votes the Liberals will lose in ridings that they are not strong in. Note as well this formula is tied into the actual vote share for the Liberals, and, as such, as they drop in the polls, this factor will automatically get stronger

The other three editable cells are for the province-wide share of vote for each of the three parties. You may notice that I've put the NDP above their current share in various polls; this is because I feel the party has yet to actually catch up to where they truly are. In short, voters know in their gut that they are willing to vote NDP, but their brain may not yet be aware of this.

Friday, May 11, 2018

Malaysian Election

As you've likely heard by now, the Opposition has won the Malaysian election. To explain why that is such big news, I need to provide some context.

Prior to 1955, the Malaysian assembly had been hand-picked by the High Commissioner, who was chosen by Britain. The 1955 election was easily won by the Alliance, which was, as its name implies, an Alliance of parties; in particular, the Malayan Indian Congress, the Malayan Chinese Association, and the United Malays National Organization, or UMNO, which won 34 of the total of 52 seats in the Assembly.

The first post-independence election in 1959 saw the Alliance re-elected, winning 74 of the 104 seats

In 1963 the Malaysia we know today was formed, with the Peninsular areas being joined by Sabah and Sarawak, on Borneo, and Singapore. The Alliance quickly irritated the Peoples Action Party (PAP), the ruling party of Singapore, by reneging on a deal they had made to not contest seats there in local elections.

The 1964 election saw the Alliance win 89 of the 104 seats on the mainland. This, however, was a majority of the grand total of the 159 seats available. As a result of this overwhelming victory, Singapore withdrew from Malaysia the following year to become an independent country. The influence of PAP, however, would continue to be felt, as, PAP members in Malaysia would go on to create the Democratic Action Party, which would, more or less, be the main opposition party for decades to come.

The 1969 election was difficult for the Alliance. The Alliance managed to win 66 of the 103 seats on the Mainland; but this would fall short of a majority of the grand total of 144 seats. However, they managed to take 8 seats on Borneo, securing 74 of the 144 seats, and a Majority. They won only 44% of the vote, however, but, many seats had been won by acclimation.

By 1974, the Alliance had become Barisan National. This new alliance contained over half of the former opposition, including parties such as the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party. BN won an overwhelming victory, taking 135 of the 154 seats. This would be followed by a similarly sized victory in 1978, winning 131 of 154 seats.

The 1982 election would see BN, lead by the new Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamad. He would lead the BN to a victories taking 132 of 154 seats in 1982, and 148 of 177 in 1986.

Trouble began in 1988 when Mohamad was challenged for the leadership of UMNO, the main party in BN. In a close, and some say rigged vote, Mohamad emerged victorious, and began a purge of political opponents. Many of them would eventually start or join opposition parties. The purges eventually hit the judiciary with many judges being dismissed. The controversy caused the 1990 election to be comparatively competitive.

In 1990, BN won 127 of the 180 seats, a far lower share than in previous elections. Shortly thereafter, Anwar Ibrahim became Finance Minister and the economy took off like a rocket. By 1995, BN was able to win re-election taking 162 of the 192 seats. By 1998, Anwar Ibrahim had fallen out of favor with Mohamad and was arrested and charged with corruption and sodomy. This did not stop Mohamad from winning re-election in 1999 leading BN to taking 148 of the 193 seats. The main opposition was Barisan Alternatif (BA), a party Anwar Ibrahim had involvement with, which took 45 seats.

By the time of the 2004 elections, Mohamad had finally left the job of Prime Minister. BN won 198 of the 219 seats in elections that year. BA managed 24% of the vote, but only won 8 seats.

In time for the 2008 election, a large opposition alliance was formed known as Pakatan Rakyat (PKR). Joining BA were three other parties. the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, the Peoples Justice Party (with deep ties to Anwar Ibrahim), and the Democratic Action Party. Lead by Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, the first woman to lead a major political alliance in the country, PKR managed to take 48% of the vote and 82 seats, but still lost to BN, which took 140 seats on 51% of the vote.

The 2013 elections appeared to potentially be historic. Many were expecting PKR, now lead by Anwar Ibrahim, to win. In fact, when the results came in, PKR had taken 51% of the vote, compared to 47% for BN. However, due to the FPTP (First Past The Post) nature of the electoral system, BN still won a majority of seats, 133 compared to 89 for PKR.

This brings us to the current election

2018

There is not much to say as most of the context is laid out above.

Anwar Ibrahim, whose earlier conviction had been overturned, had the overturning of that conviction overturned, and, as such, is back in jail.

In 2015 a major scandal hit the government related to 1MBD, a government run company. In short, the Prime Minister, Najib Tun Razak was accused of lining his pockets. Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad returned to politics to demand Razak resign. In January of this year, Mohamad was named as the Prime Minister candidate for PH (Alliance of Hope) the successor to the PKR. His deputy would be Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, the wife of Anwar Ibrahim.

Polls for the election indicated that BN could likely still win a majority, thanks in part to a split in the vote between PH and the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, which would not be part of the opposition alliance.

Results, however, were decisive.

121 - PH - 50%
79 - BN - 36%

With a majority of the 222 seats won, PH has won a majority.

Mohamad has already been sworn in as Prime Minister, and Ibrahim has been pardoned. According to the plan of the party, he will take over as Prime Minister in two years. Outgoing PM, Razak, has accepted the loss. Despite this, all is not set in stone. Already, one party has withdrawn from PH. Current standings in Parliament are as follows.

113 - PH (majority)
79 - BN
18 - Islamists
12 - Others

By party, they are as follows (three largest shown)

55 - UMNO (BN)
47 - Peoples Justice Party (PH)
42 - Democratic Action Party (PH)

As with 2013, even despite the PH victory, there were accusations of gerrymandering to support BN. As someone who makes a regular habit of watching world elections, I see no evidence of this in most states. However, results from Perak have been unusual in the last few elections, including this one, that seems to have started with the 2009 crisis in that state.

There are also potential future roadblocks to keep an eye out for. The King of Malaysia is actually chosen by the various state/provincial Kings (sultans) as most states have their own King. The national King serves for 5 years, and can be re-"elected" down the road. Both Mohamad and Ibrahim have made enemies of the Sultan of Selangor, and should he become King of Malaysia, there could be potential issues.

Beyond that, this looks similar in some ways to the 1993 election in Japan, when members of various factions that broke off from the ruling party were able to unite and deal that party a democratic defeat. If what happens there will happen here, electoral reform may be in the cards.