Saturday, September 23, 2017

NZ election results

Counting continues, and NZ is infamous for taking forever to count. Final results, in fact, will not be in for nearly a month! Unlike political parties in Canada, of the UK elections agency, any postal ballots only need to be sent by, not received by, the date of the election.

As such, my post that explains the results in greater detail will be a few days away.

However, the results we have are somewhat clear.

At current, expected seats are as follows:

58 - National
45 - Labour
9 - NZ First
7 - Green
1 - ACT
0 - Maori

National has clearly won the election, but the coalitions are not yet formed and Labour could still find a way in to government.

Chances are, however, that Winston Peters of NZ First will choose to go with National; but will leverage the possibility of going with Labour to get the best deal possible.

Friday, September 22, 2017

New Zealand - What to expect

Exactly 24 hours from now we should be getting a good idea of what the new government will look like as the results come in. What kind of results can we expect?


The most recent polls show Labour falling behind. It is unclear if this is simply due to the margin of error, or a swing back to National. Due to the general lack of polling it is difficult to tell what kind of results are most likely.

My current projection is as follows.

53 - National
48 - Labour
9 - New Zealand First
8 - Green
2 - Maori
1 - ACT

121 seats; 1 overhang.

It is likely that National and New Zealand First would form a government in this scenario.

Keep in mind that we could still see a 10 seat variance on either of the top two parties, and it is, in fact, possible for New Zealand First, or the Greens, to take 0 seats due to failing to meet the threshold.



Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Friday, September 15, 2017

Emergency Update - Europe

There are enough small stories going on in Europe I decided for an emergency update.

First off, more of a public service announcement, the UK terror level has been raised. Trump has tweeted about related events, and May has attacked him for it (as usual) but this does have the potential to change views politically.

A politician in Sweden was raped for being a leftist. The details of his attack are outlined in the article. It's very very rare to hear about something like this, and hopefully it remains that way.

The government in Iceland has collapsed. It fell apart due to accusations of pedophilia and links to the Prime Minister through his father's support of a convict.

And the Spanish government is making threats to take over effective operation of one of its states, Catalonia, which wants Independence.

Not Europe, but in the neighbourhood, Iraqi Kurdistan will vote on Independence. It is always difficult to get news from non-english nations. Lebanon, for example, was supposed to have an election this year, but, just, didn't. Details on the election being called, and on it being cancelled, are scant at best; so confirmation of a poll (like this article) is always great.



I'll be reporting on the latter of these 5 when the vote occurs on the 25th and results come in, and almost certainly will cover the Spanish situation as well. Given previous coverage of Iceland, its safe to say I will also be covering any election in that nation.

Quick Update - Germany

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2017

I've been keeping track of this page, and wanted to give everyone a heads up on recent movements.

AfD is on a minor uptick. While this might not seem like much, it has pushed a CDU-FDP coalition, and a SPD-GRN-LNK coalition into very unlikely territory. As such, the bump by the AfD makes a continuation of the CDU-SPD coalition much more likely.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Norway - Coalition Negotiations

The final results in the Norwegian election have become clear.

49 - AP - Labour
45 - H - Conservative
27 - FrP - Progressive
19 - SP - Centre
11 - SV - Socialist (Left)
8 - V - Liberal
8 - KrF - Christian Democrat
1 - MDG - Green
1 - R - Red (Communist)

A few notes about how I've been referring to the parties. The Socialists I've been calling the "Left"

Left in Norwegian is Venstre. There is a party called Venstre, the Liberals. Hoyre (actually H√łyre) meanwhile means right, and Hoyre is the Conservatives. It's generally and widely accepted that Venstre is the "Liberal" party, and Hoyre is the "Conservative" party, when translated to English. However, technically, the direct translation, is Right and Left. As such I've decided to start calling the Socialist Left party, the Socialists.

Additionally, the Red party is separate and distinct from the actual NKP, or Communist Party.

Moving on

The existing government coalition, and previous government coalition, provide us with these results.

88 - Right Coalition - H + FrP + V + KrF
79 - Left Coalition - AP + SP + SV
2 - Others - MDG + R

This is a clear victory for the government, however, there is a problem.

The Progressives (FrP) are very much a party in line with Trump policies on immigration and very nationalistic. Forming the coalition 4 years ago was difficult, due to how controversial the Progressives are, and, this is happening again.

The Liberals and Christian Democrats are both looking for changes. Without them, the Conservatives and Progressives only have 72 seats, compared to a total of 97 for the other parties. There is a chance that the Liberals and Christian Democrats could sit with other parties.

A possible alternative coalition is V+KrF+SP+AP. The Centre Party, along with the Liberals and Christian Democrats, have a total of 35 seats, and could easily work with one another. The problem comes with who else they sit with. If they chose Labour, you end up with a "left" coalition. However, you have the problem that this is only 84 seats, not the 85 needed for a majority.

This is why it is likely that the current coalition will continue. In the end you may end up with a coalition of just the Conservatives and the Progressives, with "support" from the Liberals and Christian Democrats.

In the end this will likely take some time to play out, as European coalition negotiations tend to. When all is said and done, I suspect that the current coalition will continue, even if in another form.

Monday, September 11, 2017

Norway election results

85% counted, in norway. Compared to my projection the biggest change is that the Greens did not meet the threshold.

Current results show the following:

49 - Labour (L)
45 - Conservative (R)
28 - Progressive (R)
18 - Centre (L)
11 - Left (L)
8 - Christian Democrats (R)
8 - Liberals (R)
1 - Greens (L)*
1 - Communist (L)*

This is a victory for the right-wing coalition, but only just. The Liberals are just on the very edge of the threshold, and if they fail to meet it, the left parties could still manage 85 seats compared to 84 for the right. Despite this, Labour's leader has admitted that he fully expects the Liberals to pass the threshold when all is said and done. 

I'll make another post in a day or two once the dust settles.