Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Martin McGuinness has died

I've spoken about him before in a past blog post.

Also an update; I'm still quite busy, and today in particular am facing some minor health issues. I'll try to return to more regular posting as soon as possible.

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Netherlands Results

Dutch media is suggesting the coalition I proposed earlier is very likely to take office.

33 - VVD - Conservative
19 - CDA - Christian Democrat
19 - D66 - Liberal

This gives the coalition 71 seats, short of the 76 needed for a majority; however, minority governments have happened before.

The main opposition parties are as follows:

20 - PVV - Nativist
14 - SP - Socialist
14 - GL - Green Left

It's been speculated the Green Left would be willing to join the new coalition. I don't fully understand the nuance; but it's been widely reported in the dutch media that this is the most likely way the coalition would reach a majority.

Other parties:

9 - PvdA - Labour
5 - CU - Social Conservative
5 - PvdD - Environment+Animal
4 - 50+ - Pensioner
3 - SGP - Christian Right

Labour is the largest loser in this, falling to 9 from 38 seats.

As well two new parties join Parliament:

3 - DENK - Social Democratic, and Multicultural, Pro-immigration
2 - FvD - Populistic, Nativistic, Eurosceptic, and Conservative

Feel free to compare this to my prediction. Despite the fact I placed VVD far higher than polls suggested, they managed to outperform even that.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

BC polling still off the mark.

A bit of a "breaking" story; but in short; 

from my tweet thread

You know what you can't find easily in most BC polls? how people voted in 2013. Why? Cause they know these numbers are fishy.

If they showed you, they'd say 40% voted NDP in 2013 (they did) but only 34% voted Liberal. (it was 44%)

What this tells me is a very very simple fact; a LOT of people who voted Liberal last time are not answering polls

This was the key stat that told me the early Ontario and Quebec polls were wrong; but not the later (and correct) ones

And this is the key stat that showed me after the fact that both Alberta and BC were wrong in 2012/2013

It's been purposely hidden it seems because the BC pollsters likely know their numbers are way way off. Libs have ~10 additional pts

From a chat room


I just did some math

that shows the BC polls are ******* ********

this happened in 2013. and in alberta in 2012 with pc. I noticed it after the fact
it also happened in early polls with the liberals in ontario and quebec

it also happened in early polls with the liberals in ontario and quebec

Q: what are the amounts for other parties?

well as shown above, a poll that says the topline is 34L-40N-14G-10C should actually read 45L-41N-8G-6C
same with 36L-40N-14G-8C should read 45L-41N-8G-5C

Q: why?

WHY they don't answer? no ******* clue. but at least I've found a way to determine WHO is not answering.

TLDR: BC Polls are just as far off as they were last time, if not more so.

More to come in future posts.

The NDP's biggest long term problem: Left in the wrong way

The NDP is Left in the wrong way.

It wasn't until reading this great article in the Toronto Star that I was finally able to put to words the reason the NDP has charged headlong into failure so many times at so many levels. The NDP is Left in the wrong way.

To quote the article
Mulcair was heading into an Edmonton convention after expressing an open mind on ...(being)... anti-oil sands...

There are a number of positions on issues that horrify mainstream voters. Not simply that they oppose the idea, but that they very strongly oppose the idea. The NDP has a history of taking these ideas up and running with them. While many mainstream voters are willing to bend on Pipelines, those who are not are going to be concentrated in the resource-rich provinces of Western Canada.

There are a few other ideas the NDP has had, past and present, that strike this same horror into the minds of voters. They include but are not limited to...

  • Withdrawing from NATO
  • Withdrawing from NORAD
  • Opposition to a Jewish State in the Middle East
  • Nationalization of Industry
  • Repeal of NAFTA

As you can see, while some of these issues can be classified as economic, or foreign affairs related, all 5 have a similar theme in common of 'culture'

The NDP is culturally left. Not just socially left and economically left. This is the key difference between the NDP and the Liberals, and the key reason why the NDP fails when it fails.

Economic ideas like a basic income, helping the working class, and taxing the 1% are all popular with Canadians and could easily win elections. Social ideas like entrenching Trans rights, Refugees, and Immigration are also places the NDP can easily win.

The problem comes when you get into cultural issues; issues that rely on the worldview of the voter. while most voters do want to do something about climate change, it is not a top priority - most people are more worried about if their Trans child will get beat up today, or if they'll be able to put enough food on the table that evening. The NDP's position on climate change is not problematic, their focus on it is. The NDP has reached a point where they make more noise about climate change than the Green party does. Indigenous rights is another similar issue, most Canadians do think something needs to be done, but have their priorities elsewhere.

Governments campaign and govern in different ways. An NDP government that focuses on climate change and indigenous rights is not something that will turn off voters; an NDP campaign that focuses on these things, will.

It gets worse.

The NDP opposes pipelines, something that most Canadians understand is the safest way to transport oil. The NDP consistently supports public sector unions; in particular ones whose workers provide support to the most needy. People who make $25,000 a year are not going to take your side when you argue the people providing their services shouldn't make $75,000 a year, they should make $85,000 a year; no matter how hard you try to tell them that this is to their benefit. Some NDP parties have even pushed hard for herbicides over pesticides, and debated policy that would see the latter banned outright; farmers like to use what is cheap and effective and don't like others telling them how to do their jobs, no matter how much you tell them the environment will be better off for it.

It gets even worse.


Take a look at the NDP's own policy documents.

Almost all of these issues, and related issues, are in section 1, or the upper half of section 2. Fighting poverty is section 3.4

Seniors is 3.7
Refugees is 4.4
Ethics is 5.8
Trans Rights is 6.3

The NDP's problem is they have everything backwards. Rather than going out every day and saying that people need economic help in these hard times; that Trans people need protection; that Refugees need our help - they are going out every day and saying that the Climate is changing; they are going out every day and saying that Native peoples need help; they are going out every day saying that Proportional Representation needs to happen.

I think you'll find that while a good 70% of Canadians, if not more, think all 6 of these thing either need to happen, or, they wouldn't mind if they did happen, you'll also find that within that 70%, a good 80% think the first 3 need to happen before the second 3.

Trudeau won because he was Left in the proper way. Mulcair was Left in the wrong way. The things you say, and the order you say them in, matter. If you are talking to someone about serious issues, you are generally going to pick the things most important to you to discuss first. The NDP's problem is these things are all issues Canadians just frankly don't care that much about. Sure they want them to happen, sure they support them, but they are other, bigger issues that need to be faced in the here and now.

The NDP has not failed because they are Left.
They've failed because they are Left in the wrong way.

Dutch Elections

Elections are tomorrow; my predictions are as follows:

26 - VVD (Conservative)
22 - CDA (Christian Democrat)
20 - PVV (Nativist)
19 - GL (Green Left)
18 - D66 (Liberal)
15 - SP (Socialist)
10 - PvdA (Labour)
5 - CU (Social Conservative)
5 - PvdD (Pro Animal / Environmentalist)
5 - 50+ (Pensioner) 
3 - SGP (Christian Right)
2 - Others (Including Pirate Party)

A coalition between VVD, CDA, and D66 is what I've been expecting for some time now. If this prediction comes true, they would have a strong minority; and, with the help of PvdA, a majority. 

However, if, as I've previously said (#3) I've am also trying to correct for the number of racial-minded voters. As such, here is a prediction with that in mind:

25 - PVV (Nativist)
24 - VVD (Conservative)
20 - CDA (Christian Democrat)
19 - GL (Green Left)
17 - D66 (Liberal)
15 - SP (Socialist)
10 - PvdA (Labour)
5 - CU (Social Conservative)
5 - PvdD (Pro Animal / Environmentalist)
5 - 50+ (Pensioner) 
3 - SGP (Christian Right)
2 - Others (Including Pirate Party)

This would weaken my expected coalition, but still not allow PVV to form a coalition of its own as there are enough other parties at strong enough levels to prevent it.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Western Australia Election

An apology; I've been quite busy as of late.

Western Australia's election was held today.
As expected, Labor gained a majority of seats

Monday, March 6, 2017

Netherlands Update

Next week the Netherlands goes to the polls. I wanted to do a quick update of changes that have occurred.

Both the Nativist party, and Pensioner party leaders have gotten themselves in trouble with the courts. Both the parties have suffered as a result. The Nativists have dropped from 18.7% to 17.1%, while the Pensioners have dropped from 6.3% to 4.1%. This is, as always, based on poll averages. The remaining parties are stable, gaining or losing less than 0.3%, however, three parties have gained more than this; the three parties I've suspected for some time will form the next government.

The Conservatives hare up to 16.9% from 16.0%
The Liberals now sit at 11.2% from 10.7%
And the Christian Democrats are at 12.2% from 11.3%

This would give the potential coalition 40.3%, compared to 57.3% for the other parties combined. Minority governments have happened before in the Netherlands, however it would only take Labour staying in the government to  give this grouping a majority. Additionally, the momentum is with this grouping, and even the best polls can be off by a point or two per party; meaning it is possible this potential coalition could obtain their own majority.