Saturday, February 17, 2018

One way the Ontario PC leadership may play out (the numbers)

From what I can gather from the way the current campaigns are carrying themselves, the below is a possible first round ballot result:


Points Share
3900 Ford 32%
3000 Elliott 25%
2250 Brown 19%
2000 Mulroney 16%
1000 Granic-Allen 8%


First, some may think Granic-Allen's total is high, but I point out that Trost and Lemieux took a combined 20% in Ontario federally running on socially conservative platforms.

Second, Mulroney has proved (at least to me) to be thoroughly unimpressive just about every time I've seen her, and Elliott too just does not truly seem to want the job badly enough, while Ford, somehow, has positioned himself as the progressive candidate.

Where would things go from here? Most of Granic-Allen's voters would probably go to Ford, but as usual, a number will scatter to the winds.


Points Share
4400 Ford 36%
3100 Elliott 26%
2350 Brown 19%
2300 Mulroney 19%


Mulroney voters are likely to go to Elliott


Points Share
5050 Ford 42%
4500 Elliott 37%
2600 Brown 21%


This leaves Patrick Brown voters as Kingmakers. They, I strongly suspect, will heavily favour Ford.


Points Share
7050 Ford 58%
5100 Elliott 42%


Thus Ford wins by a near 3-2 margin over Elliott. 

Thursday, February 8, 2018

General look ahead (projections)

I sometimes get the idea that when I do not post, people think I am not following politics around the world. This post is to dispel that. It is short, and to the point. Not much blah blah, many numbers. These are my projections of upcoming elections all around the world. Note that, as usual, my interest lies in Parliamentary systems, as such, my numbers are for Parliamentary elections, especially the lower house.


UNITED STATES

A lead of 5 or so points in the polls for the Dems over the GOP for Congress likely means a "real lead" of 2 or so points given the past history of congressional polling VS results. A lead of 2 points would - because Dem support is in cities more than any gerrymandering - still result in a GOP win.

219 - GOP
216 - Dem


HUNGARY

The sitting government is very popular. In fact the Socialist leader resigned saying his own party didn't want to win and were only positioning to be the stronger opposition.

141 - Fidesz
25 - Jobbik
17 - MSZP
8 - LMP
8 - DK

(comparison, LMP+DK combined with MSZP for comparison purposes, last time VS projected)

131 - 141 - Fidesz
43 - 33 - Left
23 - 25 - Jobbik



ITALY

Berlusconi's conservatives have allied with the Lega Nord, the 'halfway separatist' party that wants a highly autonomous northern Italy. Together, the two parties are set to win a plurality in both the House and Senate.

259 - 129 - Right
173 - 87 - Left
170 - 85 - M5S
28 - 14 - LeU

Short by 57 - 29

They will be short in both houses however on current numbers.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Nick Xenophon continues to make a big splash in his home state and is set to hold the balance of power.

31% - LIB - 21
28% - ALP - 16
25% - BST - 9
7% - GRN - 0
7% - OTH - 1

ALP-BST coalition government expected

Xenophon is unlikely to be Premier, but may make Deputy Premier.



ONTARIO PC

Our 3 top contestants are:

Doug Ford
Christine Elliott
Caroline Mulroney

At this time, all 3 are sitting on 25% of the first round vote, however, should one of them run a particularly weak campaign, they number could drop closer to 15%. They may also be joined by one of four people:

Steve Clark and Sylvia Jones - deputy leaders of the party, unlikely to run.
Frank Klees - has run before for leader, 66, out of politis for 4 years, unlikely to run.
Ross Romano - MPP for Sault Ste. Marie, may run to increase profile, won't win.

In the end, this is likely a Ford vs Elliott final ballot, on which, Ford likely has the edge.


TASMANIA

11 - LIB
10 - ALP
4 - GRN

This was a very hard projection due to the system used, it remains an open game as to who wins the most seats, however, the Greens have never supported a Liberal government when a Labor government has been a realistic alternative, so Labor has the edge here.



ISRAEL

I won't pretend to understand the nuance behind the recent accusations and 'charges' against Netanyahu for corruption, however, polls from before the official declaration of those "charges"

The current 67 seat government is polling at 63 seats.

25 Likud -5 (from last time)
12 Jewish Home +4
8 Kulanu -2
7 UTJ +1
6 Yisrael Beiteinu +-0
5 Shas -2

The opposition meanwhile has seen some major shifts

25 Yesh Atid +14
15 Zionist Union -9
11 Joint List -2
6 Meretz -1

It is possible though unlikely that should Kulanu drop from the coalition and force an election, they could form a new coalition lead by Yesh Atid that also contains the Zionist Union (Labour) and Meretz. They would only then need a half dozen or so additional seats that could come through a strong election result, or, from parties like Shas, UTJ, or Yisrael Beiteinu.





And a few nations without any explicit projection at this time:




SPAIN

The liberal C's party is doing rather well, both they and the conservative PP with whom they govern in a coalition are ahead of either of the two left alternatives. 



JAPAN

Still waiting for the dust to settle on the Democrats. Polls show the LDP sitting on 32.9% "approval" the CDP on 10.6%, and the next 8 largest parties on 10.4% combined. 



POLAND

After some drastics ups and downs in the 2 or so years since the last election, polls have generally stabilized to look similar to the last election with the exception of the conservative government having taken roughly 4 points directly from the liberal official opposition. 



GREECE

Tsipras may not survive the next election at this rate, with his socialists far behind the conservatives; however the conservatives do not have the 40% or so they need for a majority in the greek winner-bonus PR system. 



SOUTH AFRICA

The ANC chose Cyril Ramaphosa as their next candidate for President, and is currently fighting among itself to dump current President Jacob Zuma ahead of the election. Should Zuma fight back and lose, he could lead a new party against the ANC which could demolish the ANC majority.

Regardless, it is unlikely anyone except the ANC would be in a position to govern and they'd simply have to form a coalition. It is near impossible for any other party to "win" the coming elections in 2019. 



IRELAND

FF is polling near where they were in the last election, while SF and FG are both up. FF may be more transfer friendly than they were last time meaning all 3 parties could see seat increases at the next election.


Thursday, February 1, 2018

PC Leadership shaping up to be a two horse race

Doug Ford and Christine Elliott have either announced, or, are about to announce. The two are personal friends of a degree, and it is likely they will dominate the entire race. Phillips and Mulroney would be smart to withdraw and not run, and instead endorse Elliott. Should that happen it will very quickly become a two way race between two distinct points of view.

Saturday, January 27, 2018

PC Leadership race has few likely candidates

After reading the tea leaves and seeing what the general feeling is, I've been able to determine the 6 people most likely to run, and among them, only 3 are very likely.


Likely:

Vic Fedeli
Caroline Mulroney
Rod Phillips


Unlikely:

Christine Elliot
Doug Ford
Lisa MacLeod


Of those, I could only see Ford realistically running, and he's likely to be blocked on the grounds he's not a candidate. 

Fedeli has Caucus behind him, Mulroney has the party brass. Mulroney, however, is still undecided on running. Phillips may have a shot if the brass decides to back him should Mulroney decline.

Friday, January 26, 2018

PCs to hold leadership race prior to election

Fedeli has been named interim leader, but the Mulroney faction has successfully called for a leadership race prior to the election.

We'll see how this plays out.

Next Ontario PC leader, the two factions

From what I can tell there are two factions growing in the Ontario PC Party. Fedeli vs Mulroney.

Caucus - The caucus mostly seems to want Vic Fedeli to lead the party through the election. Historically, when an Interim is selected and asked to helm a party through an election, this person becomes the "full time leader" and as such this would be a coup de grace for Fedeli.

Executive - The party brass itself however seems to be lining up behind Caroline Mulroney and is pushing for a convention. There's certainly time for one (The 1988 Manitoba NDP had the government collapse, a full convention, and a general election within a 60 day period, the Ontario PC party has 132 from today)

So far it remains Fedeli vs Mulroney, but we'll have to see if both sides can not agree on a compromise candidate.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Greens headed for a majority on PEI - poll

A recent mainstreet poll shows the PEI Green Party in first place with 36.1% support compared to 30.2% for the PC Party, 28.6% for the Liberals, and 5.1% for the NDP.

Assuming this poll is accurate and correct, and, that this feeling manages to last until the next election in 2019, the results may look like this:


This is the first time that a purely mathematical based projection has shown a majority Green government anywhere in Canada, and possibly, anywhere in the OECD.