Thursday, June 9, 2022

announcement on the future of this blog

 I'll be short with this. I'm continuing to get my life in order with personal improvements. One of said improvements is to stop wasting time. In some, if not many ways, I feel some, if not most, of what I do on this blog, qualifies, as wasting time. 

The blog is not going away. I plan to continue posting for years to come. 

However, I have made the decision to stop my focus on timing. That means posts will become less often, similar to what you may have seen over the past 6 weeks. I will continue to cover events, but in a far more "short" manner. I'll still point out important things as I see them, but, will no longer feel pressure to report on an election the day after it happens with analysis. 

I am still planning on discussing the Ontario election, and will explain how taking off Del Duca's glasses directly lead to a Ford majority. But. I will not be posting that today. Or tomorrow. Perhaps not even this weekend.

I will keep you all updated on any other steps in my path to personal improvement that may impact the blog. For now, however, less frequent posts is the result. 

Wednesday, June 1, 2022

quick reminder (ontario election)

 Don't forget to check out my post from earlier today if you've missed it.


This is simply a reminder that the small dots in the ridings mean that riding is winnable. As such any momentum towards the PC party, could, if they do well enough, look like this:





Not saying this will happen. Simply that it could. 

Ontario election tomorrow

 Turnout.


This election has been boring. I won't mince words. There have been some policy announcements, interesting debates, and differences between the parties; but overall, this election has been quiet, and boring. 

As such, Turnout is going to decide what happens. How, and more importantly, why?

The Liberals. In 2018, it was time for the Liberal government to take a break. As such, many regular Liberal voters didn't show up to vote. You can see this in turnout of ridings with traditionally high Liberal vote shares. 

As such, to perhaps grossly oversimplify, higher turnout = more Liberal seats.


Doug Ford has not done a terrible job; and Andrea Horwath has failed to convince anyone new to give her the Premier's chair. Del Duca has done a bad job at getting people to vote Liberal, but, it's unclear just how bad. This is why things depend on Turnout. There are roughly 250,000 voters across ontario debating if they are going to bother voting tomorrow, and the vast majority would vote Liberal. This is, very roughly, 2K voters per riding, with more in Liberal ridings. If none of them bother voting, the Liberals take perhaps a dozen seats, gaining next to nothing over the last election. If all of them bother voting, the Liberals hold the PC Party to a minority. 


So, what will turnout be?


My guess: moderate.

Other people doing projection's guess: low

This is why I have more Liberals winning than they do. 


As such, this is what my prognosis looks like:





You'll notice more dots. You may notice particular ridings, like Peterborough, or Lisa MacLeod's own riding, where I have perhaps controversial calls. This is due to the impact of the recent storm, which, I think may have a heavy impact on the PC vote. I also have all 3 of the larger "far right" candidates listed as possibilities. This is because I'm not certain that their voters are honest with pollsters, and so I have suspicions.


Regardless, I'm expecting a PC Majority, but, one that's smaller than many others are thinking for the reasons I've outlined. If turnout is low, expect a larger win, if it is high, a minority could be on the cards. 

Sunday, May 29, 2022

Ontario election prognosis

 I have a new prognosis (projection) for the ontario election. 






Not much to say about it, heavily based on math, with the vast majority of the work being shown via twitter posts. Will comment on it's meaning, before the election.

Sunday, May 22, 2022

Australia election results

 Just a quick numbers post; on the results of the Australian election, which are still being counted.


Current topline results from the ABC show the following:


72-ALP
52-L/NP
15-Others


but we can do better than that.


77 - 32.8% - Labor (Progressive)
58 - 35.7% - Coalition (Conservative)
8 - 2.9% - "Teal Independents" (Eco Capitalist)
4 - 11.9% - Greens (Green)
2 - 2.6% - Other Independents (One hard left, One right moderate)
1 - 0.4% - Katter (Rural Conservative)
1 - 0.3% - Centre Alliance (Moderate)
0 - 4.9% - One Nation (Nationalist)
0 - 4.2% - United Australia (Anti-Lockdown)
0 - 1.7% - Liberal Democrats (Libertarian)
0 - 0.2% - Jacquie Lambie Network (Populist, leans right)
0 - 2.4% - all others


This, I think, is a far more useful way to look at things. It includes the in-doubt seats (1 green, 5 labor, 6 coalition) and breaks the teal independents off from the remainder of the independents (interestingly, the teal flavor seems to have taken more votes than all other independents combined!) I went through the 22 seats they ran, and simply added the first round vote result to determine this. 

Senate, new grand totals, estimated:


32 - Coalition
26 - Labor
12 - Greens
2 - Jacquie Lambie Network
3 - One Nation
1 - United Australia
0 - "Teal Independents"


This makes the same assumptions that the above list for the House result does. Interestingly, the Teal Independents could still win a seat, pending how the count goes in the ACT. If so that seat would come from the Coalition. 

One thing you may notice is the Sensate would be split 36-36 for both the left and the right. If the count holds, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, even if not really unprecedented. 


Thursday, May 12, 2022

Election Roundup, early may

 In the Philippines, Bongbong Marcos has been elected as President, along with his running made, Sara Duterte. He's taken roughly 46% of the vote. His main opponent was the sitting Vice President, Leni Roberdo. She ran as an Independent, and took about 22% of the vote. The next closest candidate, Manny Pacquiao, took only about 5% of the vote. All of this is from unofficial tallies. 


Sara Duterte has been elected Vice President, with ~47%, slightly more than Marcos. Francis Pangilinan took ~13.5%, he was Roberdo's running mate. Tito Sotto is the one who really beat expectations, taking ~12% of the vote. He was the running mate of the 4th placed Presidential candidate. 

Sotto is a Conservative. Pangilinan is where we run into the first complexity in covering Philippine politics; family. Let's look at how this 'works'. 

For example, Incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte was part of Laban, but founded PFP. Bongbong Marcos backs PFP but both were supported by Lakas. Sara Duterte is running with Lakas, not PFP. This continues historically; Ferdinand Marcos, the dictator, was part of the Nationalist party, which is the same party his opponent Corazon Aquino, the opposition leader he had assassinated. In short, 'party' is not as important here as which 'side' you are on in terms of family disputes.

Knowing who are what "Lakas" is, thus is far less important than knowing which "side" people are on, and the major "side" that won here is "Marcos"

Bongbong Marcos is on the "Marcos" side, while people like Roberdo and especially Pangilinan are closer to the "Aquino" side. 


Meanwhile in Germany


The Schleswig-Holstein election, as mentioned, returned the governing CDU as the largest party. One seat short of a majority. By default, the party would want to reach out to the FDP, the Business-Liberal party. However, the local CDU leader may be a moderate, who might wish a coalition with another party. One interesting option is the SSW.

SSW is an ethnic minority party. In 1947, the party took 9.3% of the vote, and, in 1950, they took 5.5%. Between then and 2022, they never got over the 5% threshold. In 2022, they took 5.7% of the vote. 

As a minority party, the party wins seats regardless of the threshold. The party represents minority Danish interests, and has generally centrist liberal policies. 

If the SSW and CDU can come to an agreement, it could be an alternative coalition. The parties, however, have some distance between them on certain issues. 

It is always possible the CDU will try to sit with the SPD or the Greens for some reason, or, try to govern 1 seat short. Regardless, I am following things.


In Northern Ireland


There's no sign yet that a brand new agreement is in the works. As such, it may be most realistic to look for adjustments to the existing agreement, similar to how the Belfast Agreement upgraded the Good Friday Agreement. There's nothing new to update just yet, but I want to make clear I am following things, and will let you know if and when something develops. 


Elsewhere


In the UK, local elections were held. It is difficult to judge exactly what these things mean as only certain areas vote at certain times. Comparing this to the 2018 results (same seats), Labour continues to rise. It is in other years that the Conservatives do much better. 

It is far more useful to look outside England. Scotland saw the Tories down, losing ~60 seats, with all the other (major) parties gaining. Wales has a much more direct change, with the Tories losing ~85 seats and Labour taking ~65 of them. 

As always, I continue to monitor polls in various countries. There's nothing to update in Israel, Italy, or the republic of Ireland. 

In Australia, polls seem to think that a 54-46 split may be where things settle. This would result in a Labor government. 

Lastly, here in Ontario, I am following things. However, at this time, there's nothing much to comment on. I expect that by this time next week I will have a much clearer view on what may be happening.