Thursday, April 19, 2018

Post timeline

Note that I will be making a few posts between the 22nd and 30th, but will likely not have time for any prior to this.

Monday, April 9, 2018

Hungarian Election Results

Lets get right into the results

133 - Firesz - National Conservative - Obran (+-0)
26 - Jobbik - Hard Nationalist (+3)
20 - MSZP - Socialist (-5)
9 - DK - Progressive Liberal (+5)
8 - LMP - Green (+3)
3 - Others (1 independent technocrat, 1 liberal, 1 german minority)

There is some talk of MSZP, DK, and possibly even LMP forming a coalition in opposition to prevent the lead opposition role from going to Jobbik, but weather or not this materalizes remains to be seen.

In short, this is in line with what was expected, and as such, there's not much to say that's not been said already elsewhere.


Expect posts soon on the upcoming election in Mexico, and a post explaining how and why politics now is different from what it was in, say, the 1980s.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Wynne's Challenge

Kathleen Wynne has two major challenges to re-election which I'd like to detail.


CHANGE

The first challenge is that of change, people may simply have decided they've had too much of the Liberals and want some change. Doug Ford is actually an excellent brand ambassador for "Change". He is a populist, and is from Toronto, and area the Tories are seen as being weak in. He is an "outsider" who is viewed by most as understanding some of the issues that those who may not be seen as 'normal' tories have - IE he is "in touch" with "the common man"

This is not to say any of these things about Ford are true, or that they are false, but rather, that this is how people see him. Ford is a real threat to the Liberals and could easily win the election if the variables are right. He is not to be under-estimated as the driver of change, and this, is widely seen as a change election.

Ford is in the drivers seat, but he has a huge threat that I don't know if he realizes, one that even the Liberals may be under-estimating.


TRUST

On the flip side is the question of who people can trust. The Liberals have put themselves in a dangerous position; they've adopted what many view as "NDP policies" and stolen what many see as "NDP ideas". The most recent budget could easily be painted as an "NDP budget" and a lot of the things Wynne has proposed in the past few weeks feel to many voters as being very "NDP"

Again, this is not to say that these are actually "NDP" ideas, or that they are not; just that this is how people view them. This, however, opens up the Liberals to a very dangerous line of attack. If you want NDP ideas, why vote Liberal when you can simply and directly vote NDP?

The problem is Bob Rae and his governments major failings. Being a trust issue, a lot of this will depend on if Ontario voters have forgiven the NDP for Bob Rae, and if they can overlook other supposed failings within the party in other jurisdictions. If they can, all of the multitude of proposals coming out of the Liberals become useless as the NDP simply "does it better" in a way, and this becomes a race between the NDP and the Tories.



This coming provincial election will have two phases that will run alongside one another but impact each other deeply. The first will be who the progressive voter views as the champion of progressive values, and the second will be who change voters view as party they want to be the vehicle for that change. In this way, the fight is similar to the 2015 federal election, but with different players who start in different positions.

In the end, this still anybody's game.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Updates

Not much "new" going on in the world of politics, just more of the same (PCs continue to lead in Ontario, for example)


ITALY

The biggest news is probably from Italy where Berlusconi's FI party is looking to coalition with M5S. While the two do have a lot of policy overlap, M5S's main goal is anti-corruption, and Berlusconi is the symbol of corruption in modern Italy. Any coalition would thus be difficult.


ISRAEL

Not only is there yet another new party on the horizon, but Netanyahu, which is increasingly facing possible corruption charges, only continues to get more popular. Sometimes Israeli politics confound me.


HUNGARY

Hungary votes on the 8th of April. Polls show a landslide victory for the governing Fidesz party. It is interesting to see of Jobbik, a far-right party, can manage to finish second or not.


LEBANON

Lebanon supposedly votes on May 6th, but this date has been suddenly changed before. I will cover this nation in greater detail as we near that date.


IRAQ

May 12th is the day for the Iraqi election and it will be interesting to see what shifts, if any, have occured in the past 4 years. Keep in mind that Iraq has fought "civil wars" against both ISIS and the Kurds in the interim.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Legislature Check

Every so often I like to do a "legislature check" where I look in on all provincial legislatures, and other such things.



ELECTIONS:


Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick will be having elections this year, with Ontario's election in June.



LEGISLATURES:



Senate (I always check on them during legislature checks)

Current standings are as follows:

43 - ISG (Crossbench)
33 - Conservative
11 - Liberal
6 - Other
12 - Vacant



PEI

A liberal quit the party and now sits as an Independent. Standings:

16 - LIB
8 - PC
2 - GRN
1 - IND



Quebec

68 - PLQ
28 - PQ
21 - CAQ
3 - QS
5 - IND



Ontario

55 - LIB
28 - PC
18 - NDP
1 - Trillium
1 - Independent
4 - Vacant (not filled prior to election)



Newfoundland and Labrador

30 - LIB
7 - PC
2 - NDP
1 - IND



Nova Scotia

27 - LIB
16 - PC
7 - NDP
1 - Vacant



New Brunswick

25 - LIB
22 - PC
1 - GRN



Manitoba

39 - PC
13 - NDP
3 - LIB
2 - IND



Saskatchewan

48 - SKP
12 - NDP
1 - Vacant



British Columbia

42 - BCL (Oppo)
41 - NDP (Govt)
3 - GRN (C&S)
1 - IND (Speaker)



Yukon

11 - LIB
6 - YKP
2 - NDP



Alberta

54 - NDP
25 - UCP
3 - ABP
1 - LIB
1 - "PC"
1 - IND

Saturday, March 10, 2018

No result tonight - PC leadership live

Due to the chaos within the PC Party, there will be no result today.

What we know:

I can roughly estimate the ballots


33% - Ford
32% - Elliott
18% - Granic-Allen
17% - Mulroney

41% - Ford
39% - Elliott
20% - Granic-Allen

51% - Ford
49% - Elliott

The problem is what postal codes and ridings. I know of this personally as I happened to live in a riding when I first moved to Ontario that was across the railway tracks from the majority of the riding; as such, my postal code was different from what it normally would be in the riding. I had to argue with the party about which riding was mine.

Due to how close this is, getting all the ballots recorded in the right ridings is important, and that seems to be the key issue.

On a more snarky note; after John Tory's big religious school screw up, and Hudak's missing 100,000 jobs, people thought, "Surely Patrick Brown can not screw up more than that"

Well



He touched some women, refused to quit

Quit

Sparked a leadership race

Got kicked out of caucus

Said he was not going to run

Decided to run

Dropped out

Organize the leadership race

Fail to get verifications to voters

Extend deadline

Extend it again

Get taken to court

Have a big day

Fail to find a winner

Tell entire party to follow mike crawley on twitter



I guess they are trying to make sure that they screw up so badly, they can never screw up "worse than this" ever again.

Doug Ford has won the PC leadership - live

Reports are that Ford has won. Elliott was the one who challenged for a recount. Will have the ballot by ballot results when they come out; but reports are Mulroney finished 4th.