Sunday, January 14, 2018

Second schedule update

The CMHoC election is over. Results below if you are curious.

However, the speaker has resigned.

The CMHoC moderation/administration team runs, in a way, like a mini canadian government.

The Governor General, with all his reserve power, and all his not otherwise sticking his nose into the governments business, is the headmod.

While the speaker, who is technically able to be vetoed by the GG, is like the "Prime Minister" of the administration team.

I am running for speaker.

As such until that election ends, I will have a strong time commitment to cmhoc.

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Schedule and tech notification

I am taking a week off in order to run the elections in CMHoC, the political sim I participate in. This will mean very few to no posts during that period. However; I am working on a number of posts that will be posted before the spring.

Additionally, a weird notification. There is a problem with some intel processors that allows for a security exploit. Normally I wouldn't even mention such a thing, but if I understand what I am reading, and I understand my audience, about 65% of you will be reading this on an impacted device, and a grand total of 95% of you will own at least one device that will be impacted. I won't try to explain the tech details here, simply give you a heads up to watch the news in the coming 2 weeks for more details. Until then: do not panic. You are not the prime target. This video is good for understanding the context of that statement. There are bigger fish to fry, in particular, all those cloud servers you use.

Thursday, December 28, 2017

Ontario projection

Math based projection from the 4 most recent polls:

62 - PC
33 - LIB
28 - NDP
1 - GRN

62 seats for the Tories and 62 for the other parties combined.

edited to add:

Saturday, December 23, 2017

personal post

This past week has been the most emotionally difficult and draining week I've had in over a decade. I apologize for not making more posts. I will work to get one out over or after xmas.

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

By-Election applied to country

I wanted to determine how the swing in the by-election would play out on a national scale. To do so, I equally weighted 3 factors.

First, the most recent poll (picked over a poll average as it had a higher NDP number, and I wanted to compensate for the NDP's poor showing)

Second, the popular vote change from the last election in all 4 of the ridings.

Third, the popular vote change from the last election in the region each riding was in, the Pacific, the Prairies, Central Canada, and Atlantic Canada.

The final step was simply applying that ratio to all ridings in Canada, which produced this projection.

Note that I presumed that Singh would win his seat, as, his running, changes the math, and that previous by-election victories are applied to replace last-election results, which is how the Liberals retain Lac Saint Jean.

With this we get national totals of:

195 Lib
115 Con
15 NDP
11 BQ
2 Grn

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Plan for December

Currently the plan for December is to make 7 back-to-back "large" posts.

I need 7 of these in order to do what I wish to achieve. I already know what 4 of them will be.

Introductions, and comparisons, of Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia.

In between each is going to be a total of 3 other posts. Currently I am trying to figure out what they will be. Suggestions are welcome.

Friday, December 8, 2017

Patreon Changes

Just a heads up, Patreon has made some changes recently. This will impact me negatively, my pledges will increase by 30% and those who donate to me will now be asked by patreon to donate more.

I have updated my goals to reflect this.

$6 will cover my patreon donations. It good piece of mind to not have to always worry about having a few dollars left in my bank when patreon comes for money

$43 will enable me to increase my donations to my fav creators tenfold, which I'd like to do but can not afford to do at this time.

$300 will enable me to double my daily cash budget, which I use to purchase things like groceries.

$1025 would replace my entire current non-patreon income with patreon income.

$5750 would, if my math is right, be $60,000 after tax, Canadian, after all fees.

None of this will impact my core mission of providing ad free content.