Sunday, October 18, 2015

18OCT2015 Projection - It's all about Quebec

There is some variance in the polls. For example, most polls have the parties running even in BC, usually slightly favouring the Liberals. Ekos, however, has the Liberals far back in BC.

This is a rare case of the polls still disagreeing with one another... outside Quebec.

Quebec is where the story of this election will be made, just as was the case in 2011. At this time, it looks like no party will take over 30% in the province, something which is highly unusual.

As such I've really decided to dig down in Quebec and look at the numbers. What I learned was my Montreal numbers were way off. As such, I made an adjustment, as noted in the previous post, and further adjusted that adjustment a few moments ago when I grabbed the Nanos poll.

Mulcair, thusly, will not be losing his seat, at least, if my adjustment was correct.

The Liberals, however, will still defeat many high-profile MPs from both other parties, and, will buzz around the Majority marker like a bee. Currently, they are under it, but only just.

Expect another projection this evening, and final projections at about this time, or earlier, tomorrow morning. I will try to have my final projection up before the polls open in Newfoundland, but to get the most accurate projection, I need to include the latest polls, and as such, if a poll is released 5 minutes before the polls open, I will need the time to add it to my projection, which could take as much as an hour.