Election Reform - Ontario under different systems

There are a number of systems we can look at, lets start with some of the simpler ones

Alternative Vote (Instant Runoff Voting)

The Liberals would lose their seat in Thunder Bay, but gain Eglinton-Lawrence.

The Tories would not gain any seats. The Tory loss in Eglinton-Lawrence to the Liberals is offset by the NDP gain from the Liberals in Thunder Bay, meaning we begin the counter with the NDP up by 1.

The NDP further takes the following ridings:

The soo
Ottawa West
Peterborough
Rouge Park
Brampton West
Conestoga
Hespeler
Cambridge

and quite possibly also

Scarborough Centre
Etobicoke Lakeshore
and Brantford Brant

For a total of 12 NDP gains from the Tories, pushing our numbers to a final result of:

64 PC
52 NDP
7 LIB
1 GRN

A narrow PC Majority. Note as well that the last three ridings I listed were quite iffy on the math, and its quite likely that in the event the real election had used IRV, these three would have remained PC, pushing our split from 64-52 to 67-49, a much more comfortable majority.

Pure PR (Proportional Representation)

A pure PR system would see a single province-wide "riding" that elects 124 candidates. According to the popular D'Hondt method of counting (and the method whose online calculator is most user friendly in my experience) the results are as follows:

51 - PC
43 - NDP
25 - LIB
5 - GRN
0 - LBT

The Libertarians fail to win a seat even without a threshold.

NOTE TO THE READER

This post originally was going to examine STV and other systems; and maps have been prepared for that purpose. However, other bloggers are dealing with STV, and as such, I've decided to truncate this post and end with an examination of a Parallel PR system.

Parallel PR

A Parallel PR system mixes the benefits and drawbacks of both PR and FPTP. Unlike a supplementary or "fill up" system, a parallel system is additive.

Longtime readers will know this is my reform of choice for Canada and its provinces. Two arguments seem to carry the most weight in Canadian debates about electoral reform. First, people want to be able to keep majority governments, even if they are, as some in the NDP have tried to classify them "false majorities". And second, Canadians are concerned about representation of the opposition; first that the main opposition party can, often, find itself without representation from certain entire regions, and secondly, that the third party and lower, can find itself with very few, if any, elected representatives. Parallel deals with both of these in ways Canadians want to see.

I also want to note that a true Parallel PR system would not see the total number of seats change much, but that I am using a larger number of seats as this saves about 6-8 hours worth of calculation of manually re-drawing every riding, and makes the calculation time for the Parallel system total around 2 minutes for calculating how popular vote turns into additional seats won. I use this d'hondt calculator for that purpose.

Additionally, most of the systems I propose for Canada have only a small number of PR MPs, as, polls do show Canadians are iffy on the concept of a mixed-member system, and having a smaller number is more likely to succeed. As such, to the 124 ridings, I am adding an additional 24 proportional seats.

Of these seats, the PC party wins 10, the NDP wins 8, the Liberals win 5, and the Greens take 1.

As such the final end results are as follows:

86 - PC
48 - NDP
12 - LIB
2 - GRN

As an example of how this may play out in reality, we could expect to see the 10 new PC MPPs from all over Ontario, including London, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa, Northern Ontario, and various more rural areas. The NDP is more likely to see members elected from Mississauga, the York Region, and various rural areas, while the Liberals could easily end up with representation not just from Toronto and Ottawa, but in places like Windsor, Kitchener, Mississauga, and both rural eastern and southwestern Ontario. This would mean that all 3 parties have members from Mississauga, for example; and given how Parallel systems are usually implemented, this is extremely likely.

Turkish election results

While some of the results are somewhat disputed, the two sets of numbers are similar enough to produce a results post.


PRESIDENT

52.6% - AKP - Erdogan
30.6% - CHP - Ince
8.4% - HDP - Demirtas
7.3% - IYI - Aksener
1.1% - all other candidates

Erdogan has won a first round victory. Even the disputed results show that, even if it is not a first round win, his lead is large enough to overcome any second round challenge.


PARLIAMENT

293 - AKP
50 - MHP
343 - Government Alliance

146 - CHP
44 - IYI
0 - SP
190 - Opposition Alliance

67 - HDP

In sum, while the government retains its majority, the AKP loses its majority by a few seats. As such, this is not as big of a victory for Erdogan as it could have been. Again, while there are a set of dispute figures, they too show a government majority with an AKP minority.

Very quick summary on Turkey

As my long-time followers will know, I sometimes get long bouts of writers block; this is one of them. As such to give everyone a very quick run-down of today's Turkish election, I've decided to post a very quick summary on the grounds that having something up is better than nothing.

Turkey's recently changed its constitution to give the President a lot more power.

In the Presidential race, Erdogan (the guy who has run the country for the past decade) is likely to win. His two main rivals are Ince from the CHP and Aksener from IYI.

While Aksener does better in polls against Erdogan in a second round than Ince does, Erdogan still has the clear edge, and will likely emerge as the winner no matter what.

Erdogan's power is the AKP, and, as mentioned, he and his party have been the government since 2003. Erdogan's coalition partner is the MHP, a nationalist party.

MHP, however, suffered a major split recently, and IYI is the splinter party. It is more moderate and anti-Erdogan. Mrs. Aksener is its presidential candidate. The CHP is the "founding" party of Turkey, and the party Ataturk belonged to; it is considered social-democratic in nature.

Turkey has a notoriously high threshold in order to get elected to Parliament, 10%. In the last election, HDP, which is supported by most Kurds, passed the threshold. HDP is expected to do so again. HDP is not contesting this election in any coalition.

AKP and MHP, the government, is contesting in a coalition called the People's Alliance. By doing so, MHP will win seats despite polling near 6%.

Facing them is the National Alliance coalition, which includes both the CHP and IYI. Also included are SP and DP.

The most interesting thing about the DP is its logo is based on a mispronunciation of its name, as in Turkish, the "Demokrat" is similar to "Demir Kirat", or, Iron White Horse. It is not expected to win many, if any, seats, even with the coalition deal, with perhaps 5 being an extremely optimistic number.

SP is a splinter party from the same old and banned party AKP was once part of; SP is avowedly Islamist in nature.

The Government alliance is expected to win somewhere between 45% and 55% of the seats in Parliament, while the main Opposition alliance, between 35% and 45%. HDP would make up the remainder.

Erdogan has worked with the HDP before, and in the event he fails to win a majority in Parliament, we could expect to see this again to some degree.

In summary, Erdogan is expected to win, and its only a matter of by how much.

Upcoming Turkish Election

Just a quick heads up that I'm following the upcoming Turkish election this weekend.

A new law means that electoral alliances will be able to pool votes for the purpose of passing the threshold. Two main alliances have thus formed.

According to a month long poll average, the AKP lead alliance would win 300 seats, 258 to the AKP and 42 to MHP, while the CHP lead alliance would win 230; 154 to the CHP, 64 to IYI, and 12 to SP. HDP wold take 70.

The presidential race is setting up to be a battle for second between Mr Ince from the CHP and Mrs Aksener from IYI. Aksener seems to have better chances of defeating Erdogan in the final round, but Ince seems to be leading her on the first preferences.

A more full post on the election will come within 48 hours.

various threads

From time to time I'll get various threads of information that may go somewhere or may not.

This morning for example, it was presented that the Premier of Nunavut may fall to a VoNC (Vote of Non Confidence). This just happened. A new premier has yet to be selected.

However; there are other threads I am following.

Merkel may be out in Germany as her sister party the CSU, may withdraw from the 'permanent' coalition they have with the CDU.

Italy's new government may refuse to ratify the Canada-EU free trade agreement.

Spain's government fell to a VoNC a few weeks ago, and the new government is from the socialist party.

Greece and Macedonia may have come to an agreement on the name of the latter country.

None of these are large enough for their own full post at this stage, but, I wanted to keep readers up to date on what is going on around the world nonetheless.

Ontario, combined

One of the thing I like to do after elections, especially in Ontario, is compare the results to Federal results.

In order to do this I've combined the results in both Federal and Provincial ridings, treating both the 2018 and 2015 elections as though they were a single election.

Keeping the parties separate, we find the following results:

62 - Liberal Party of Canada
21 - Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
14 - Conservative Party of Canada
14 - Ontario New Democratic Party
1 - New Democratic Party of Canada

However, if we combine the results by party we end up with the following.

61 - Tories
37 - Liberals
14 - NDP

In particular, doing it this way, leads to some very close results. Mississauga Lakeshore is won by 40 votes, Oakville by 17. The Waterloo riding is very close, with the Liberals winning 36,329 votes over the Tories at 36,291, and the NDP at 36,243.

Northern ridings, which differ from their Federal counterparts, were not compared.

Here are some popular vote figures to mull over:

Note for this, OND stands for NDP, and GPO for the Ontario Greens; Federal parties are those without the letter O. This is compared popular vote for Ontario only, both Federally and provincially, going back to 1995. All entries over 111,000 votes are recorded. GOVernment, Official Opposition, and X for Other are also indicated, as is the name of the party leader in the given election.

2,929,393 - LPC - 2015 - GOV - Trudeau
2,583,065 - LPC - 1993 - GOV - Chretien
2,457,463 - CPC - 2011 - GOV - Harper
2,324,742 - PCO - 2018 - GOV - Ford
2,294,594 - LPC - 1997 - GOV - Chretien
2,293,393 - CPC - 2015 - OO - Harper
2,292,075 - LPC - 2000 - GOV - Chretien
2,278,875 - LPC - 2004 - GOV - Martin
2,260,024 - LPC - 2006 - GOV* - Martin
2,090,001 - OLP - 2003 - GOV - McGuinty
2,020,641 - CPC - 2008 - GOV - Harper
1,985,242 - CPC - 2006 - OO* - Harper
1,978,059 - PCO - 1999 - GOV Harris, M
1,925,512 - OND - 2018 - OO - Horwath
1,870,110 - PCO - 1995 - GOV - Harris, M
1,869,271 - OLP - 2007 - GOV - McGuinty
1,862,907 - OLP - 2014 - GOV - Wynne
1,751,472 - OLP - 1999 - OO - McGuinty
1,743,241 - LPC - 2008 - OO - Dion
1,625,102 - OLP - 2011 - GOV - McGuinty
1,607,337 - CPC - 2004 - OO - Harper
1,559,181 - PCO - 2003 - OO - Eves
1,530,076 - PCO - 2011 - OO - Hudak
1,509,506 - OND - 1990 - GOV - Rae
1,506,267 - PCO - 2014 - OO - Hudak
1,417,435 - NDP - 2011 - OO - Layton
1,400,302 - LPC - 2011 - X - Ignatieff
1,398,806 - PCO - 2007 - OO - Tory
1,291,326 - OLP - 1995 - OO - McLeod
1,203,134 - OLP - 1990 - OO - Peterson
1,124,381 - LPO - 2018 - X - Wynne
1,114,576 - OND - 2014 - X - Horwath
1,100,366 - NDP - 2006 - X - Layton
1,085,916 - NDP - 2015 - X - Mulcair
1,051,209 - ALL - 2000 - OO - Day
982,065 - REF - 1993 - OO* - Manning
981,508 - OND - 2011 - X - Horwath
944,564 - PCO - 1990 - X - Harris, M
937,921 - NDP - 2008 - X - Layton
921,240 - NDP - 2004 - X - Layton
886,797 - REF - 1997 - X* - Manning
871,616 - PCC - 1997 - OO* - Charest
859,596 - PCC - 1993 - X - Campbell
854,163 - OND - 1995 - X - Rae
741,465 - OND - 2007 - X - Hampton
660,730 - OND - 2003 - X - Hampton
642,438 - PCC - 2000 - X - Clark
551,009 - OND - 1999 - X - Hampton
495,155 - NDP - 1997 - X - McDonough
409,936 - GRN - 2008 - X - May
368,709 - NDP - 2000 - X - McDonough
354,891 - GPO - 2007 - X - de Jong
291,658 - NDP - 1993 - X - McLaughlin
264,094 - GPO - 2018 - X - Schreiner
263,400 - GRN - 2006 - X - Harris, J
233,269 - GPO - 2014 - X - Schreiner
226,812 - GRN - 2004 - X - Harris, J
207,435 - GRN - 2011 - X - May
185,992 - GRN - 2015 - X - May
126,651 - GPO - 2003 - X - de Jong
126,021 - GPO - 2011 - X - Schreiner


* = Reflects the first, second, or third/fourth status of the party in terms of seats in ontario, and not total federal seats.

New "electomatic", crazy map shows where Libertarians can win

Note that "can win" is very generous. It shows where, in 2-3 decades, if the demographics do not change (which they will) where a Libertarian party could actually win seats.

you can view the sheets here, page 4 "projection machine" is what you want.

Note that it's not currently hooked up properly in terms of making your own projections; but the base data is all there, and as I said in my previous posts, that base math was far better at making projections than I was.

Anyway, this is all part of a series of 4 maps I plan to present, the first set of two I've decided to present now, as, I was so interested in the results:

This answers the question of "what would happen if all 5 parties which ran over 100 candidates tied in the number of seats won"

So we have 25 Tories, 25 NDPers, 25 Liberals, 25 Greens, and 24 Libertarians, as, 124 is not perfectly divisible by 5.

What's most interesting is how well the Libertarian vote matches expected vote patterns from Libertarian voters. Note that Hillier's riding goes Libertarian, as does the belt in Toronto north of the 401, west of Yonge st; both areas I've personally identified before as strong small l libertarian parts of Canada. Peel region too sees a heavy Libertarian presence, wich has been shown in the party's past performances.

We also get an idea of places a future Green government may find core voters, and see where both the Liberals and PC Party have their cores as well.

More to come.

Terrible error

I found an error on the sheets that actually potentially ruined everything. It was a single letter I mis-typed, but as a result, the NDP's ratio total needed for vote calculation was actually being pulled from the PC Party; which is why the AFF was so high.

When I fix it
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nRdNOdXUtW0F0hKHcNXnNwzveTxeYOxcmgoBo7bG-78/edit?usp=sharing
I end up with more errors however, 20.

The last time a projection went this disastrously for me was also the last time I tinkered with the sheets as much as I did (Quebec in 2012)

The math was smarter than me

Still going through my check of "what went wrong" and one thing I've already discovered is the pure unadulterated math is smarter than me.

The pure math, with 0 adjustments (such as upping ford's vote in his riding, or increasing the liberal vote in the few ridings they could have won) had 16 errors.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N_L5r7hxrKGT0zPhPT1dieVUbGgf8BsllU2wCYCY8HQ/edit?usp=sharing

whereas the adjusted math, had 19
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1w07nUt6m8aw1KL0QrMv72jGHeTn2VLvPOUnUbeZJcjU/edit?usp=sharing

In short, I am going to be quite a bit more conservative with any fancy formulas I develop in the future to make the sheets "better" as clearly the pure math itself did a far better job than I did with this election.

Post Mortem

As usual lets start with the ridings I was wrong in

Which as you can see is quite a lot of them.

Additionally even with the proper vote shares, the sheets were off by a massive margin, mostly due to that simple yet complex math error I don't know how to correct. I will make a post later explaining the problem and seeking for help to fix it. When you correct for this math error (which I've done here) the sheets are actually fairly accurate.

The biggest problem, however, was not the sheets, but rather, that I went with my gut and not the math.

My gut does not have a good history in recent elections. To correct for this, I will be focusing much more on the math going forward.

Additionally, the riding polls from Mainstreet ended up being rather accurate, and, with the purchase formula outlined here, I will be buying them when possible.

In the end it's been a terrible night for me, both on a "who I wanted to win" level and a "made bad projections" level; but I will continue on. There are always more elections to look at around the world, and I'll be starting that within a few days by going over recent results in Slovenia.

Ontario; counting continues

The maps show where things stand as counting continues.

So what went wrong?

In short; my gut was wrong and the math was right.

Post-mortem tomorrow morning.

PC Party under Doug Ford to win Majority

More to come.

Ontario E-Day commentary; ridings for an NDP majority

If the NDP wins these ridings:

Whitby
Mississauga East--Cooksville
Mississauga--Erin Mills
Mississauga--Centre
Flamborough--Glanbrook
Peterborough--Kawartha
Hastings--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
Huron--Bruce

They may win a majority.

Ontario E-Day commentary; PEI Projection

For fun, to pass the time as we all wait, I thought I would do a little PEI Projection:

Not much commentary; just that this is where things probably stand given the polls.

E-Day commentary, 2pm

For my final projection, click here.

Just some thoughts.

I still think the NDP will outperform expectations, even my own projection, but I have 0 way of proving that with the math.

Additionally, I am hopeful that we (people who do election projections) can find ways to pool resources to help us have access to, for example, riding polls.



I've also decided on a system to help me personally afford these.

Views are always important, as is data and resources. A PEI election will get less views on the blog than a Quebec election will, and, there will be less resources (IE coverage) of a PEI election to begin with. As such, in the 6 "smaller" provinces, even if riding polls do exist, using them is of less use.

In terms of the "big 4" provinces, while I do quite like BC and Alberta politics, the fact is simply that with limited resources (IE my money) I have to make tough decisions, and as such, I will not be getting any riding polls for either of these provinces even if they are available.

Quebec, while always entertaining, is French. Language. Is. Important. As such, with limited understanding, and with a simply "different" political culture, such polls would not be of great use to me.

This leaves us with two. Ontario, and Canada. Traditionally, they each hold elections every 4 years, but even if minority governments half that, this is still only one such election a year. I can afford $60 for these, once a year.

As such, I think this will help solve that issue.

Final Projection: Ontario

I present to you, for this election, my final projection

This has honestly probably been the single most agonized over decision with regard to a final projection that I've had to make. All the data tells me that people want a majority PC government, lead by Andrea Horwath.

There's actually a lot less I have to say on this than I otherwise thought. People don't want Doug Ford, but they do want the PC Party. The problem is that this sort of thing has occurred before, and, generally, what happens is people vote for the party and not for the leader. This is not always the case, and the leader can drive the vote, but I'm not seeing that being enough here.

The other problem is that there is a lot of evidence that many people don't trust the PC Party, and, they do generally trust the NDP with another chance to govern.

In short what we are seeing happen is just enough Liberals going NDP to give Doug Ford a government, without enough Liberals staying with that party to block such a government. The NDP would need either 5 more points from the Liberals for their own Majority, or, 5 less points from the Liberals for a minority (as, many of the Liberal seats are ones that would be won against the Tories, not the NDP)

That being said, I am unconvinced that the PC lead is as strong as many people think. Ford is weak. Additionally, most of the polls showing the PC party far ahead have very uneven weightings for age. In short; I am unconvinced the people these polls are reaching are actually representative of the voting population.

Despite that, I can not ignore the overwhelming evidence that the PC party is doing well, and is likely to win tomorrow evening.

However, again, the evidence that the NDP will outperform expectations. When they ask people how they are going to vote, the same number of people say they are voting PC as say Ford is the best premier. Less people are undecided on the best premier than on the vote. To explain, look at these fictionalized numbers I've provided as an example.

1000 people polled
300 are voting PC
250 NDP
150 Liberal
300 are undecided

Same 1000 people also polled
350 think Horwath is best premier
300 think Ford is
150 think Wynne is
200 are undecided

What this tells me is the NDP will likely take a larger than expected share of the undecided voters.

Regardless, the PC lead is significant, and as such, my final projection, is as follows:

SPREADSHEETS

60 PC 37.86%
55 NDP 36.80%
8 LIB 20.89%
1 GRN 4.45%

Ford, and Wynne, both will be (re)-elected in their seats.

Mississauga will be where the election is decided. Had Ford won all of Mississauga he would have 62 seats, enough for a barebones majority, especially if he can convince an opposition MPP to become speaker. Had the NDP won the 3 seats they will be close in, they would have finished head of Ford. Mississauga really ends up becoming the city that decided the winner, and that winner, is Doug Ford.

Regardless, with only 60 seats, there remains a chance that a NDP-OLP coalition will take office instead. The two parties would need to agree to a solid "deal" before this happens, no informal deal will do, not with a 5 seat lead in the legislature. This means either a Peterson-Rae style "accord" or an outright coalition. Given the way the election has played out, this could well be easily possible.

Do not ignore the Greens either. They may offer Ford a way out, carbon taxes bring in a lot of revenue, revenue he will need to pay for his tax cuts. He could make the excuse that he requires Green support, and thus, needs to delete the carbon tax "later" and not now. Consider that if I'm off by even a single seat, anywhere, all of the math could be very different. A 61 seat PC party and a 1 seat Green party could form a majority, with an opposition speaker.

In the end there are two winners. Andrea Horwath, and the PC Party. It only remains to be seen whose win is bigger.

Penultimate Projection

I've added my "gut" back into the math.


62 N 38.52%
54 P 34.86%
7 L 20.64%
1 G 5.98%

This evening, the final projection (which will be much more wordy)

sheets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B5E3KyuL0X9LudhYES-DbAl8UkeNV_LaJVuBOszJ4_I/edit?usp=sharing

(math note, after the speaker selection, which normally comes from the governing party, there would be 61 NDP seats, 61 from the Libs+PC, and 1 Green)

Pre-Penultimate Projection

This will be my Pre-Penultimate Projection. Tomorrow morning, my Penultimate projection will come out, followed by the final projection which will post at 11:59pm on the 6th.

Since my last post, I've been directly contacted by Quito Maggi, who leads Mainstreet, and given access to the riding polls. I am deeply thankful for this and wish to make note of this for all readers.

I've used these to fine tune my spreadsheet. I note, however, that I've adjusted no riding to match the riding polls. The only riding that was changed, at all, was Guelph, and only in response to the other changes I made to the sheet. My information that "The Greens are leading by probably 1,000 or so votes" comes from a source in the Green Party that I trust, and not from the riding polls. All other changes are simply based on a far more accurate province-wide vote translation. In particular, the FF has been reduced to 0, and this has created far more realistic projections, including (somehow, and oddly) a better showing in urban areas. The LSD has been significantly toned down, and the AFF toned down as well as a result. All of this is why Guelph required an adjustment.

Note as well this projection has 0 "gut" in it. My penultimate, and final projections, will have far more of my intuition and judgement based into the numbers.

61 PC 36.91%
56 NDP 36.69%
6 LIB 20.64%
1 GRN 5.76%*

*Note that the "pop vote" for the Greens includes votes for all other parties, and as such, should be read as being reduced by 1 or 2 points.

The result of this would likely see a Ford minority, with the Libs abstaining on the throne speech, in return for a (public or private) commitment that the budget will not come until spring 2019. This would give the party time to find a new leader, for people to look at and re-judge all 3 (now 4 I suppose) parties, and allow the opposition to force an election on an actual Ford budget, one where any cuts he may need to make are public. For Ford it gives him time to get used to the position and put any party scandals behind him, and allows him to build up some experience in provincial politics.

Monday Morning Update - Ontario

A shorter post today. Until I see more polls that have polled the period of time after Wynne's announcement, there is not much I can do wrt updating the projection.

Instead, I wanted to address another issue. That of riding polls which have been locked behind a paywall.

For new readers; I am on ODSP. This means that I get $1151 a month, which has to cover everything. Half of that goes to rent for my literally 10 foot by 10 foot sized apartment, and after you take off the internet, I have $465 left for the month. If I were to buy access to these riding polls, it would have to come from this; the same budget for my groceries.

I am fortunate, however, in that some people donate to my Patreon. This is currently at $5, almost all of which is taken up by donations to people who provide me with hours upon hours upon hours of free entertainment that I enjoy on a daily basis. I want to give them more.

The riding polls, I know from those who have access to them, show a strong PC result. However, no provincial polls are telling me the PC party is as strong as the riding polls are telling them.

Bluntly, this puts me in a very difficult situation.

Should the riding polls turn out to be correct, I may need to stop projections altogether. I'll literally have been priced from the market. I simply can not justify spending a whopping 12% of my post-rent budget on access to polls. To help understand how much money this is for me, I've done some math.

Supposedly, the median income for Canada is $76,000 per family, while the average rent is $989. Assuming other similar bills (like a car payment) which I will include in rent, this would leave a person with roughly $5000 a month, meaning 12% is equal to $600.

I hope this helps explain exactly why I can not possibly hope to afford this.

In short; if the provincial polls continue to show no rush to the PC Party, the riding polls do, and the PC party does indeed win by the margins the riding polls suggested, then I will have to stop making projections. There's no point in spending hours of research every day to simply embarrass myself.

Narrative Change: Ontario

Wynne's announcement has focused the narratives around the election. By explicitly asking those swing voters who can't make up their mind on the NDP or the Tories, there is a good chance that she will bolster her own party in places where they could stop the other two parties.

How, you may wonder, would you ever calculate which ridings this would work in? The anwer goes to something I've had on my projection sheets for quite some time.

Download your copy of the updated sheets:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B5E3KyuL0X9LudhYES-DbAl8UkeNV_LaJVuBOszJ4_I/edit?usp=sharing

The LSD, or Liberal Swing Drop. This replicates the exact vote pattern you would expect to see should Wynne's gambit pay off.

As such I've raised the LSD to 7, which is extremely high given what the formula actually does. This is so high, in fact, it's impacted the AFF in a minor way, and, has forced me to use the higher of the two FF numbers. To compensate I've increased the Greens in Guelph yet again (though the current projection still shows them behind)

52 - NDP - 37.17%
49 - PC - 36.65%
23 - LIB - 21.83%

Two tales of election: Ontario

There seem to be two different tales of this election occuring at once.

One in which Doug Ford can not be trusted and people are swinging away from him to vote NDP.

One in which Doug Ford can be trusted, and is maintaining his standing among those wanting Change.

To that end, today, I present not one, but two projections. One in which Ford maintains his position, and one in which he fails to do so.

FORD HOLDS

64 P 39.27%
48 N 35.61%
12 L 21.53%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WvTuHrZOiqcVBQ4VNWPMO03oqfPJCY1H9DGliUtsgL4/edit?usp=sharing
remember to make your own copy to make your own projections

FORD FAILS

66 N 40.88%
42 P 34.05%
16 L 21.46%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V9YHBfCF8VdGZAGb9H6zOUWzM13XUZMzvhzYGn0rqgI/edit?usp=sharing
different from the sheet above only in topline numbers.