As usual lets start with the ridings I was wrong in
Which as you can see is quite a lot of them.
Additionally even with the proper vote shares, the sheets were off by a massive margin, mostly due to that simple yet complex math error I don't know how to correct. I will make a post later explaining the problem and seeking for help to fix it. When you correct for this math error (which I've done here) the sheets are actually fairly accurate.
The biggest problem, however, was not the sheets, but rather, that I went with my gut and not the math.
My gut does not have a good history in recent elections. To correct for this, I will be focusing much more on the math going forward.
Additionally, the riding polls from Mainstreet ended up being rather accurate, and, with the purchase formula outlined here, I will be buying them when possible.
In the end it's been a terrible night for me, both on a "who I wanted to win" level and a "made bad projections" level; but I will continue on. There are always more elections to look at around the world, and I'll be starting that within a few days by going over recent results in Slovenia.