For my final projection, click here.
Just some thoughts.
I still think the NDP will outperform expectations, even my own projection, but I have 0 way of proving that with the math.
Additionally, I am hopeful that we (people who do election projections) can find ways to pool resources to help us have access to, for example, riding polls.
I've also decided on a system to help me personally afford these.
Views are always important, as is data and resources. A PEI election will get less views on the blog than a Quebec election will, and, there will be less resources (IE coverage) of a PEI election to begin with. As such, in the 6 "smaller" provinces, even if riding polls do exist, using them is of less use.
In terms of the "big 4" provinces, while I do quite like BC and Alberta politics, the fact is simply that with limited resources (IE my money) I have to make tough decisions, and as such, I will not be getting any riding polls for either of these provinces even if they are available.
Quebec, while always entertaining, is French. Language. Is. Important. As such, with limited understanding, and with a simply "different" political culture, such polls would not be of great use to me.
This leaves us with two. Ontario, and Canada. Traditionally, they each hold elections every 4 years, but even if minority governments half that, this is still only one such election a year. I can afford $60 for these, once a year.
As such, I think this will help solve that issue.