tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1539583914578591792024-03-13T12:59:24.102-04:00Teddy on PoliticsTheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.comBlogger1126125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-51283542195134715612022-11-13T13:29:00.001-05:002022-11-13T13:29:25.968-05:00a proper ending<p> I wanted to clarify a few things.</p><p><br /></p><p>1 - No I'm not "afraid of my life because somebody won an election in Israel."</p><p>Rather, it takes effort to keep reminding people that credible news organizations are credible for a reason. It takes effort to keep reminding people that not every conspiracy theory must be met with a well thought out response. It takes effort to keep reminding people that psychology explains why humans do things, not crazy conspiracies. It takes effort to keep reminding people that many of us see little to no difference between a "very religious christian", "very religious jew", "very religious hindu", and "very religious muslim". It takes effort to keep reminding people that those with malicious intent who agree with your policies must still be opposed.</p><p>I'm done with that. I'm done with expending effort into those things. Partly for reasons of personal growth, but also partly because it is super clear that the people I keep explaining these things to, now make up the new "mainstream" of right wing thought. What we one called "far right" thinking. </p><p>That's just normal now. DeSantis, Meloni, Bibi; all are just right-wingers now, at least in the minds of voters.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>2 - I'm not "done with politics."</p><p>But I am done with wanting a political life. I realized a while ago that I'll never be Prime Minister. Ever. It's just not going to happen. I don't have the skillset required, and even if I lucked into a position to grab at the job, I wouldn't even enjoy it. </p><p>Lately I've realized that, for much the same reason, I will not have a political life either. I won't be some super strategist. I won't be on the TV telling you what the election means. I won't be in cabinet, supporting someone who has the skills to be PM. </p><p><br /></p><p>And most importantly</p><p><br /></p><p>3 - I'm trying to be a better person.</p><p>That means seeing people as people. Seeing anti-vaxxers as people. Seeing even anti-maskers as people. People I don't understand, but people.</p><p>The political 'life' I've lived so far has lead me to become too extreme and shut out those I disagree with. That's changing.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Combined, that means I really no longer have a reason to run this blog. You can, and should, follow me on Twitter. <a href="https://twitter.com/Pellaken">https://twitter.com/Pellaken</a> I ask this knowing many people who hate Elon Musk will refuse; and that's a key reason why I'm actually asking this. No only do I want to stop seeing people by just their politics, I want to surround myself with the same. Those who have left twitter due to Elon are exactly the kind of people who I no longer need in my life. </p><p>They can tell themselves I love Elon somehow. I don't really care. Elon is a moron and a jerk. A moron and a jerk with some good ideas, like going to space. He's both. Good and bad. Bad and good. That's possible. That's what humans do, be complicated and complex. That's human.</p><p>And I'm tired of pretending I'm different. I'm human. Just like Elon. Just like Trump. Just like my MP (who is prob my fav politician right now). Just like historic Heroes. Just like historic Villains. I am human. The only way I can see for myself, at this time, to continue to grow as a human, is to stop this blog. Likely forever. Perhaps just for now. But. Likely forever. </p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-22844982844413926312022-11-05T11:48:00.002-04:002022-11-05T11:48:51.350-04:00Netanyahu wins Israeli elections. the end.<p> Bibi has won the Israeli elections. Results are as follows:</p><p><br /></p><p>32 - Likud (Bibi) [X]</p><p>24 - Yesh Atid (Lapid)</p><p>14 - Religious Zionist (Ben Gvir) [X]</p><p>12 - National Unity (Gantz)</p><p>11 - Shas [X]</p><p>7 - UTJ [X]</p><p>6 - Yisrael Beiteinu</p><p>5 - Ra'am</p><p>5 - Hadash-Ta'al</p><p>4 - Labor</p><p><br /></p><p>Parties with [X] will all but certainly form the next government.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>This is where I take a step back</p><p>This is where I point out that the owner of twitter posts conspiracy theories</p><p>This is where I point out that the "Far Right" has won in Italy</p><p>The "Far Right" governs in Poland</p><p>in Hungary</p><p>it nearly won France, and likely will next time</p><p>it's growing in the UK within the tory party itself</p><p>It keeps winning primaries for the GOP in the USA</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Go re-read <a href="https://teddyonpolitics.blogspot.com/2020/05/my-opinion-trump.html">this</a>. all of it.</p><p><br /></p><p>The "Far Right" has established itself as the only valid alternative to the mainstream status quo left.</p><p><br /></p><p>In the post I linked to, I compared Trump and those like him to Gracchus, Robespierre, and Lenin. All three of them lived in times of violence, where people could be killed for their political beliefs. The things people said were held against them. </p><p>When people like Caesar, Napoleon, and Stalin took over, only the "good little boys" got to live a comfortable life. Those who knew when to stop rocking the boat. </p><p><br /></p><p>This Israeli election is simply the straw that broke the camels back. It's just "one too many" examples of the "Far Right" winning. One too many data points. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>I'm closing this blog. Forever. </p><p><br /></p><p>Feel free to call me a traitor. I'm sure you will anyway. Call me anything you want. Tell me that they'll come for me anyway, and it'll be my own fault for not speaking up.</p><p>I'm done trying to warn everyone. Nobody listens.</p><p><br /></p><p>Instead, I'll be a "good little boy"</p><p>A good little boy who knows when to shut up.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-51816146423794248962022-10-31T16:12:00.004-04:002022-10-31T16:12:59.803-04:00Israeli elections tomorrow; one possible result<p> Below, I've created a scenario that is possible. I will caution, the scenario is <u>not likely</u>. I don't possess all the information I'd need to make a likely scenario. Instead, I've put together some core assumptions, and, created the below:</p><p><br /></p><p>28 Likud</p><p>16 Nationalists</p><p>16 Orthodox</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>30 Lapid</p><p>9 Gantz</p><p>5 Lieberman</p><p>4 Labor</p><p>4 Meretz</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>4 Hadash</p><p>4 Ra'am</p><div><br /></div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Sorted by grouping, you can see that pro-Bibi parties would take exactly 16 seats. This is Likud, the Otzma-Zionist alliance (IE the Nationalists), and a combo of Shas and the UTJ (IE the 2 Orthodox parties)</p><p><br /></p><p>Anti-Bibi has Lapid's Yesh Atid taking 30 seats, while the parties lead by Gantz (9) and Lieberman (5) do worse. Labor and Meretz take 4 each.</p><p><br /></p><p>Lastly, both Hadash (technically, a Hadash-Tibi alliance, unlikely to back either side for government) take 4 seats, while Ra'am (who is keen on sitting in any government they can) also take 4.</p><p><br /></p><p>The assumptions I've made are as follows:</p><p><br /></p><p>Likud will continue it's late election trend of bleeding votes, losing them to it's ally parties. The Nationalists will thus take a whopping 16 seats, as will the two Orthodox parties when combined. This happens because of concerns Bibi will invite Gantz back into government.</p><p><br /></p><p>Meanwhile on the progressive side of the ledger, the opposite happens. Voters worried that Gantz or even Labor could be co-opted to join a pro-Bibi coalition, switch to Yesh Atid and vote for Lapid instead, vaulting the party to 30 seats. </p><p><br /></p><p>Otherwise, parties generally take a number of seats that is indicated by their polling average. </p><p><br /></p><p>This means Lapid will have the first crack at forming a new government. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>This is where some key assumptions, <u>perhaps absurd assumptions</u>, occur.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Lapid wants to be PM. However, that is not his primary desire. His primary desire is that Bibi does not become PM. </p><p>Bibi wants to become PM, but his party, by now, would just want to return to government. Bibi knows this. </p><p>Gantz also yearns for the office of PM. </p><p><br /></p><p>As such. Absurdly. </p><p><br /></p><p>Gantz will become PM.</p><p>This would mean a Yesh Atid-Likud-Gantz coalition government. </p><p><br /></p><p>This is not likely to occur whatsoever. </p><p>However. I've decided it's what I'm going to "predict". </p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-9779084682013105112022-10-23T10:04:00.004-04:002022-10-23T10:04:47.937-04:00Sunak, Johnson, and Mordaunt. What it means if they get 100 MPs. Lets look at what happens in the tory leadership if 1, 2, or 3 of them get 100 MPs.<div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Only Sunak does:</h2><div><br /></div><div>Sunak supposedly already has 100 MPs. The ideal situation, the 'best' way for the party to move forward, the most stable thing they can do for the economy; is let this pass. This would be the #1 ideal scenario for the party right now.</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Only Johnson does:</h2><div><br /></div><div>This would likely mean either Sunak has withdrawn, or, his backers have switched to Johnson. Unlikely, but, possible.</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Only Mordaunt does:</h2><div><br /></div><div>This is what she's hoping for. Her campaign makes 0 sense otherwise. Her argument seems to be implying "Sunak and Johnson have to much bad blood and will not accept the other as leader, so, make me leader instead." I can't see this happening.</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Sunak and Johnson do:</h2><div><br /></div><div>This seems the most likely as of the time of writing (10am in Toronto/NYC, [3pm in England] on 23OCT2022). This means we'd go straight to a members vote. I can't see Johnson winning the members vote against Sunak. However. There is a way for him to win, but, that would be another post for another time. (IE monday)</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Sunak and Mordaunt, or, Johnson and Mordaunt:</h2><div><br /></div><div>Extremely unlikely. However, it this does somehow happen, Mordaunt may well win the members vote. Frankly, with Sunak having so much support by now, the only way Mordaunt beats him with members is by a 'unfortunate' campaign. Should this come to pass I'll detail this in greater detail with yet another post.</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">All 3 get 100 MPs:</h2><div><br /></div><div>ahahahahaha. oh god. This would be far worse than the 0 MP option from <a href="http://teddyonpolitics.blogspot.com/2022/10/how-next-uk-conservative-leader-will-be.html">my last post</a>! See below for what this would imply</div><div><br /></div><h2 style="text-align: left;">Somehow, none of them do:</h2><div><br /></div><div>After Sunak has 100 public backers lined up, for him to fail to actually get their support would not just be a disaster for him, but, in this event, where nobody gets 100, would be far, far more damaging than if nobody even reached 100. </div><div><br /></div><div>This, as would the option where all 3 obtain the quota, would mean one thing and one thing alone: <b>The problem isn't the tory leader, <u>it's the tory MPs</u></b>. A party so deeply, deeply divided can not properly govern. </div><div><br /></div><div>For their own sake, I hope tory MPs are smart enough to realize this, because unless you want your party to be in 4th place in seat count in the commons after the next election, you do not want either of these things to happen.</div>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-29467469521247612902022-10-21T12:49:00.002-04:002022-10-21T12:52:43.922-04:00how the next UK conservative leader will be selected<p> In order to make things clear, I'm going to be asking "What if X people get the support of 100 MPs" and answer the question individually from there.</p><p><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">What if 4 people (or more) get the support of 100 MPs</h2><p><br /></p><p>Given that the party has under 400 MPs, this is not possible without some kind of mass defection to the party. As such, we will move on.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">What if 3 people get the support of 100 MPs</h2><p><br /></p><p>This would mean that MP's get exactly one round of voting for these candidates. Whomever happens to get the fewest MPs supporting them would be dropped. Once two remain...</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">What if 2 people get the support of 100 MPs</h2><p><br /></p><p>If this happens, you skip right to the members vote. Members will vote, online, for whom they want to be leader. The person who obtains the most valid votes, wins. Questions remain how members who are offline (IE the elderly and poor) will be able to participate. The vote result is announced next Friday (the 28th of October 2022) and, shortly after the time of said result, (an hour?) the winner becomes Prime Minister</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">What if 1 person gets the support of 100 MPs</h2><p><br /></p><p>They become Prime Minister on Monday. (Oct 24th)</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">What if 0 people get the support of 100 MPs</h2><p><br /></p><p>Ahahahahaha. I'd laugh for starters. This would, however, be an utter disaster for the party. Not sure how they'd recover if this actually plays out. MPs would likely be desperate enough to back someone they hate just to ensure this does not happen. In short, the party may literally break apart if this happens.</p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-60520517434823516802022-10-04T03:39:00.001-04:002022-10-04T03:39:06.471-04:00Quebec election summary<p>The Liberals lost 3 seats on the Island of Montreal.</p><p>The CAQ gained 13 seats from the remainder of Quebec.</p><p>QS is second most popular party.</p><p>PQ loses party status.</p><p>Conservatives fail to win a seat.</p><p><br /></p><div style="text-align: left;">90 - CAQ - 41.0%<br />21 - PLQ - 14.4% <br />11 - QS - 15.4% <br />03 - PQ - 14.6% <br />00 - PCQ - 12.9%</div>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-27061016730964718022022-09-26T16:23:00.004-04:002022-09-26T16:23:56.682-04:00italy election results<div style="text-align: left;">119 FdI (nationalist and hard right)<br />66 Lega (populist and hard right)<br />45 FI (right wing)<br />7 other right<br />total - 237</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />69 PD (progressive)<br />12 GreenLeft (left wing)<br />4 other left<br />total - 85</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />52 M5S (left populist)<br />21 A-IV (moderate liberal)<br />5 others<br />total - 78</div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">The short of it is that FdI and Meloni has won the election, but she will require the support of both Lega (Salvini), and FI (Berlusconi) to form government; but, these parties already agreed to such a thing prior to the election. </p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">Note, the results in the senate are similar. Right wing majority, but, the 3 larger right-wing parties all needed for a majority. </p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-39779880967335454102022-09-25T12:39:00.003-04:002022-09-25T12:39:52.534-04:00Italy election today<p> right wing coalition expected to win. more later. </p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-40133180146616906262022-09-15T10:06:00.001-04:002022-09-15T10:06:15.281-04:00small sweden update<p> The sitting Social-Democrat Prime Minister has resigned, effectively signalling that the right-wing bloc around M (Moderates) has "won" the election. More as it comes. </p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-62812870394993807532022-09-12T11:59:00.002-04:002022-09-12T11:59:52.576-04:00Sep2022 Sweden election results<div style="text-align: left;">24 - V - Hard Left<br />108 - S - Progressive<br />18 - MP - Green Party<br />24 - C - Agrarian-Liberal<br />16 - L - Liberal<br />67 - M - Centre-right<br />19 - KD - Social Conservative<br />73 - SD - Hard Right</div><p><br /></p><p>Unclear what governments can be formed. S+M (the Socialists and the Moderate Party) would also have a majority, but by a single seat. However, the two parties seem to be talking. This would effectively be a "grand coalition" government; and, if I was leader of C (the centre party, which is agrarian-liberal) I would be trying to get in on this, in large part, because my party is between these two policy-wise, and we could not only easily slot in to such a government, but give it boosted numbers.</p><p>SD seems to have been the big "winner", but, as the more "extreme" party, its not likely they'll be in government.</p><p>However.</p><p>SD+M+L+KD technically has a majority by a single seat. SD will push hard for this option. </p><p>My money is on S+M+C, or, another election in a few weeks/months. </p><p>Keep in mind that an implausible V+MP+C+L+M+KD government would not have a majority; meaning either S, or SD, need to be in a government for it to have a majority. </p><p>Lastly, note that Sweden no longer requires a majority for its governments. It is possible for a minority to take office, as has been the case for the last little while. However, like the current government, any new minority could easily 'collapse' and cause a new election.</p><p><br /></p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-68867170151004574612022-09-10T13:59:00.001-04:002022-09-10T13:59:13.894-04:00sweden election tomorrow. poll average; no commentary. <br /><br /> 29 - V - Hard Left<br />98 - S - Progressive<br />23 - MP - Green Party<br />26 - C - Agrarian-Liberal<br />21 - L - Liberal<br />60 - M - Centre-right<br />22 - KD - Social Conservative<br />71 - SD - Hard RightTheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-63052125405939471342022-09-02T11:11:00.000-04:002022-09-02T11:11:01.136-04:00sweden; 3 poll average<div style="text-align: left;">30<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>V<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Hard Left<br />101<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>S<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Progressive<br />19<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>MP<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Green Party<br />26<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>C<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Agrarian-Liberal<br />22<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>L<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Liberal<br />59<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>M<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Centre-right<br />22<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>KD<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Social Conservative<br />70<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>SD<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>-<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Hard Right</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Election is on the 11th. 149 is needed for a majority.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Unclear what kind of coalition could be formed, but a S-V-MP coalition would have a majority; but that's perhaps not likely. </div><div><br /></div>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-3312067890909297682022-08-16T10:11:00.002-04:002022-08-16T10:11:21.580-04:00Update! 16AUG2022<p> Upcoming elections:</p><p>SEP 11 - Sweden - unclear (might not cover)</p><p>OCT 03 - Quebec - likely huge CAQ majority (might not cover)</p><p>NOV 01 - Israel - Bibi is doing well (will cover)</p><p><br /></p><p>So yes, I'm not gone; but, as is likely clear by now, the amount I post here has gone way down.</p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-28754798862181847232022-06-09T12:35:00.003-04:002022-06-09T12:35:45.215-04:00announcement on the future of this blog<p> I'll be short with this. I'm continuing to get my life in order with personal improvements. One of said improvements is to stop wasting time. In some, if not many ways, I feel some, if not most, of what I do on this blog, qualifies, as wasting time. </p><p>The blog is not going away. I plan to continue posting for years to come. </p><p>However, I have made the decision to stop my focus on timing. That means posts will become less often, similar to what you may have seen over the past 6 weeks. I will continue to cover events, but in a far more "short" manner. I'll still point out important things as I see them, but, will no longer feel pressure to report on an election the day after it happens with analysis. </p><p>I am still planning on discussing the Ontario election, and will explain how taking off Del Duca's glasses directly lead to a Ford majority. But. I will not be posting that today. Or tomorrow. Perhaps not even this weekend.</p><p>I will keep you all updated on any other steps in my path to personal improvement that may impact the blog. For now, however, less frequent posts is the result. </p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-41395520135717598232022-06-03T22:56:00.000-04:002022-06-03T22:56:30.578-04:00Ontario election resultsNo analysis today; instead, other stuff.<div><br /></div><div><br /><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_GtMljmJYMYjhFbcVoQy032ZXlT6qq97xNw5N22QsQoaMfZsiuADs-WpBbb1zPxOH04yMaWNZEXQj9DCwqlVeYQlSN27HatT8z8MrssrACkAP1f4_UZA4O1zSFiDU3rhNHwFDJJ5tbZpOQelpnkSLjcg9EaClynn_LYg314akM_18iks22igAG0vK" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="764" data-original-width="652" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_GtMljmJYMYjhFbcVoQy032ZXlT6qq97xNw5N22QsQoaMfZsiuADs-WpBbb1zPxOH04yMaWNZEXQj9DCwqlVeYQlSN27HatT8z8MrssrACkAP1f4_UZA4O1zSFiDU3rhNHwFDJJ5tbZpOQelpnkSLjcg9EaClynn_LYg314akM_18iks22igAG0vK=w547-h640" width="547" /></a></div><br /><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoQu9GQV-_zbV0VXbUexOKh6_4gwTVm5dbKy53goeUzoFqjAF2AmPtcuzjhwlgeHh3LcnsK7I0kypz0iYAq_SOLUnwohSyLRMLoL1CTUjac0GuOuZRrQNtl4TF4qkehUIckMrhJmfSD8Nmrek3RR9hcSjMASwGH47SrZ7SxUYM1qtDZNLXlsWxZUKW/s1182/1ONprov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="1182" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoQu9GQV-_zbV0VXbUexOKh6_4gwTVm5dbKy53goeUzoFqjAF2AmPtcuzjhwlgeHh3LcnsK7I0kypz0iYAq_SOLUnwohSyLRMLoL1CTUjac0GuOuZRrQNtl4TF4qkehUIckMrhJmfSD8Nmrek3RR9hcSjMASwGH47SrZ7SxUYM1qtDZNLXlsWxZUKW/w640-h444/1ONprov.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3GEtQdDJaZnAWqGWDTfsacnyCYAEZgA_XMnzKSJSyctqTG8SBYkPAgk9adyDZBXo8ckDORHxXv2EERZUHOJ9Zeq3tB6xRZ5Jpm2ApQJ-bZ-V7owIiIg5Qc1hr7TwWOZn8bkCaao9af8yOkbm4qh114u44SsF0bnH7blZ_K-Xq0x8dyTc--tvvm-2T/s1200/13prov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1200" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3GEtQdDJaZnAWqGWDTfsacnyCYAEZgA_XMnzKSJSyctqTG8SBYkPAgk9adyDZBXo8ckDORHxXv2EERZUHOJ9Zeq3tB6xRZ5Jpm2ApQJ-bZ-V7owIiIg5Qc1hr7TwWOZn8bkCaao9af8yOkbm4qh114u44SsF0bnH7blZ_K-Xq0x8dyTc--tvvm-2T/w640-h476/13prov.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-47353138418951084592022-06-01T18:48:00.001-04:002022-06-01T18:48:06.745-04:00quick reminder (ontario election)<p> Don't forget to check out <a href="http://teddyonpolitics.blogspot.com/2022/06/ontario-election-tomorrow.html">my post from earlier today</a> if you've missed it.</p><p><br /></p><p>This is simply a reminder that the small dots in the ridings mean that riding is winnable. As such any momentum towards the PC party, could, if they do well enough, look like this:</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEizGAR67t41le81ILezryuWca7PoQNvHCOkhOswEDRI6jBXun6SaKbgK8-4CcDDzVOVvQN1pZLIqcfer-mlDZqCO83NoYzpIlKWPiBb4BPNNujqKJ7rxJ2YP5EgkwNfvE61zkerHxOgwblVD552v5FfllRTqwacjOx0GXTB4k9UK3YnL3Xog4agLb/s1182/1ONprov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="1182" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEizGAR67t41le81ILezryuWca7PoQNvHCOkhOswEDRI6jBXun6SaKbgK8-4CcDDzVOVvQN1pZLIqcfer-mlDZqCO83NoYzpIlKWPiBb4BPNNujqKJ7rxJ2YP5EgkwNfvE61zkerHxOgwblVD552v5FfllRTqwacjOx0GXTB4k9UK3YnL3Xog4agLb/w640-h444/1ONprov.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF7_5w2qmOHQg-9gb9jv_j4kG2Fm9xCA6nHIs43CRRRSNv-YGy69WxspDiKUu0wyQ_Ttj4NNpe1O5KKQmOIrlngA4DuBbhptn2r7XZSrWTPIRf9p3G6WhLAolPYp9FPymHreNJQzG9eJAE-RdjiGGtLWIL5JHB0J9fUwCvC3OX-nQADTooAT--qyIB/s1200/13prov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1200" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF7_5w2qmOHQg-9gb9jv_j4kG2Fm9xCA6nHIs43CRRRSNv-YGy69WxspDiKUu0wyQ_Ttj4NNpe1O5KKQmOIrlngA4DuBbhptn2r7XZSrWTPIRf9p3G6WhLAolPYp9FPymHreNJQzG9eJAE-RdjiGGtLWIL5JHB0J9fUwCvC3OX-nQADTooAT--qyIB/w640-h476/13prov.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>Not saying this will happen. Simply that it could. </p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-58266263884637960922022-06-01T15:29:00.001-04:002022-06-01T15:29:14.228-04:00Ontario election tomorrow<p> Turnout.</p><p><br /></p><p>This election has been boring. I won't mince words. There have been some policy announcements, interesting debates, and differences between the parties; but overall, this election has been quiet, and boring. </p><p>As such, Turnout is going to decide what happens. How, and more importantly, why?</p><p>The Liberals. In 2018, it was time for the Liberal government to take a break. As such, many regular Liberal voters didn't show up to vote. You can see this in turnout of ridings with traditionally high Liberal vote shares. </p><p>As such, to perhaps grossly oversimplify, higher turnout = more Liberal seats.</p><p><br /></p><p>Doug Ford has not done a terrible job; and Andrea Horwath has failed to convince anyone new to give her the Premier's chair. Del Duca has done a bad job at getting people to vote Liberal, but, it's unclear just how bad. This is why things depend on Turnout. There are roughly 250,000 voters across ontario debating if they are going to bother voting tomorrow, and the vast majority would vote Liberal. This is, very roughly, 2K voters per riding, with more in Liberal ridings. If none of them bother voting, the Liberals take perhaps a dozen seats, gaining next to nothing over the last election. If all of them bother voting, the Liberals hold the PC Party to a minority. </p><p><br /></p><p>So, what will turnout be?</p><p><br /></p><p>My guess: moderate.</p><p>Other people doing projection's guess: low</p><p>This is why I have more Liberals winning than they do. </p><p><br /></p><p>As such, this is what my prognosis looks like:</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX6UBsZHDyXpTZeC7zzZqW8lqHEbfzqoyavIrpWu7urggfIRID_8BNVASrri-kDhp_QbnX0NZFkLCGhCS7cvsZoh7gVccoiKxbTiL-6c3LDLw09AclKXgApTMVKvWZgvOqzh0RDUfY4bDLN8qDSnkmo5EDZ8WrCsaTvNuhCKBFmyE-wvyfy9hHx0Js/s1182/1ONprov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="1182" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX6UBsZHDyXpTZeC7zzZqW8lqHEbfzqoyavIrpWu7urggfIRID_8BNVASrri-kDhp_QbnX0NZFkLCGhCS7cvsZoh7gVccoiKxbTiL-6c3LDLw09AclKXgApTMVKvWZgvOqzh0RDUfY4bDLN8qDSnkmo5EDZ8WrCsaTvNuhCKBFmyE-wvyfy9hHx0Js/w640-h444/1ONprov.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjToFp_jqRfJitU5HwSfSVB7sHBjV6sMTJ-_dZnGtcKrsTCANHP8uGCi58bfZ6qLxmL1wbCb3qUMrAmb3WK0NJDx35BpGc75Md1H5sUxFyO6FbELB6hVtrkUGB-0Q6laDPQPMFYxkvGCIVNMNYi_KECrI5FDBTtxZaJJFyzaCMaYy44lBLXFapZ4TCP/s1200/13prov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1200" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjToFp_jqRfJitU5HwSfSVB7sHBjV6sMTJ-_dZnGtcKrsTCANHP8uGCi58bfZ6qLxmL1wbCb3qUMrAmb3WK0NJDx35BpGc75Md1H5sUxFyO6FbELB6hVtrkUGB-0Q6laDPQPMFYxkvGCIVNMNYi_KECrI5FDBTtxZaJJFyzaCMaYy44lBLXFapZ4TCP/w640-h476/13prov.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>You'll notice more dots. You may notice particular ridings, like Peterborough, or Lisa MacLeod's own riding, where I have perhaps controversial calls. This is due to the impact of the recent storm, which, I think may have a heavy impact on the PC vote. I also have all 3 of the larger "far right" candidates listed as possibilities. This is because I'm not certain that their voters are honest with pollsters, and so I have suspicions.</p><p><br /></p><p>Regardless, I'm expecting a PC Majority, but, one that's smaller than many others are thinking for the reasons I've outlined. If turnout is low, expect a larger win, if it is high, a minority could be on the cards. </p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-25977747940107234752022-05-29T14:35:00.002-04:002022-05-29T14:35:13.380-04:00Ontario election prognosis<p> I have a new prognosis (projection) for the ontario election. </p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcHtv31J-QJoaKu148YFLVbyzXskOWcabzxPuPx0JrgsnbPb-E7Nc6AtIdi4QkPc-_Gu9GUlD4KXC5qEKNHdSHKnnyYf-Pmmz2bhYh-QrpTCs7eCBAKZ3XRzf5HSSvmoEeKlciujFt6wJZel52LYRcoOdBdi9dpT4BywcxLmx1kKSscrxqbihew-HD/s1182/1ONprov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="1182" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcHtv31J-QJoaKu148YFLVbyzXskOWcabzxPuPx0JrgsnbPb-E7Nc6AtIdi4QkPc-_Gu9GUlD4KXC5qEKNHdSHKnnyYf-Pmmz2bhYh-QrpTCs7eCBAKZ3XRzf5HSSvmoEeKlciujFt6wJZel52LYRcoOdBdi9dpT4BywcxLmx1kKSscrxqbihew-HD/w640-h444/1ONprov.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgttgaGU5TNDBEl-jQOAcdTi_ekpbJu3Mo5QSejLb7ja59Q4t0cIygdTMe_V2uqBx0m-c_zgiG9beImYGJVRoRj8N1-rUp3zpcswlXUENf2hfdTbYQHN1G5LUh6XDPqjALA26hI7JCmqk6sq26g9T7h8E82K3EZwCOllIzjPBRUSwjeZbFglth7eKoN/s1200/13prov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1200" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgttgaGU5TNDBEl-jQOAcdTi_ekpbJu3Mo5QSejLb7ja59Q4t0cIygdTMe_V2uqBx0m-c_zgiG9beImYGJVRoRj8N1-rUp3zpcswlXUENf2hfdTbYQHN1G5LUh6XDPqjALA26hI7JCmqk6sq26g9T7h8E82K3EZwCOllIzjPBRUSwjeZbFglth7eKoN/w640-h476/13prov.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Not much to say about it, heavily based on math, with the vast majority of the work being shown via twitter posts. Will comment on it's meaning, before the election.</p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-70574721852214708092022-05-22T12:22:00.001-04:002022-05-22T12:22:14.154-04:00Australia election results<p> Just a quick numbers post; on the results of the Australian election, which are still being counted.</p><p><br /></p><p>Current topline results from the ABC show the following:</p><p><br /></p><div style="text-align: left;">72-ALP<br />52-L/NP<br />15-Others</div><p><br /></p><p>but we can do better than that.</p><p><br /></p><div style="text-align: left;">77 - 32.8% - Labor (Progressive)<br />58 - 35.7% - Coalition (Conservative)<br />8 - 2.9% - "Teal Independents" (Eco Capitalist)<br />4 - 11.9% - Greens (Green)<br />2 - 2.6% - Other Independents (One hard left, One right moderate)<br />1 - 0.4% - Katter (Rural Conservative)<br />1 - 0.3% - Centre Alliance (Moderate)<br />0 - 4.9% - One Nation (Nationalist)<br />0 - 4.2% - United Australia (Anti-Lockdown)<br />0 - 1.7% - Liberal Democrats (Libertarian)</div><div style="text-align: left;">0 - 0.2% - Jacquie Lambie Network (Populist, leans right)<br />0 - 2.4% - all others</div><p><br /></p><p>This, I think, is a far more useful way to look at things. It includes the in-doubt seats (1 green, 5 labor, 6 coalition) and breaks the teal independents off from the remainder of the independents (interestingly, the teal flavor seems to have taken more votes than all other independents combined!) I went through the 22 seats they ran, and simply added the first round vote result to determine this. </p><p>Senate, new grand totals, estimated:</p><p><br /></p><div style="text-align: left;">32 - Coalition<br />26 - Labor<br />12 - Greens<br />2 - Jacquie Lambie Network<br />3 - One Nation<br />1 - United Australia<br />0 - "Teal Independents"</div><p><br /></p><p>This makes the same assumptions that the above list for the House result does. Interestingly, the Teal Independents could still win a seat, pending how the count goes in the ACT. If so that seat would come from the Coalition. </p><p>One thing you may notice is the Sensate would be split 36-36 for both the left and the right. If the count holds, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, even if not really unprecedented. </p><p><br /></p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-46400510504187691142022-05-12T11:29:00.003-04:002022-05-12T11:29:54.938-04:00Election Roundup, early may<p> In the Philippines, Bongbong Marcos has been elected as President, along with his running made, Sara Duterte. He's taken roughly 46% of the vote. His main opponent was the sitting Vice President, Leni Roberdo. She ran as an Independent, and took about 22% of the vote. The next closest candidate, Manny Pacquiao, took only about 5% of the vote. All of this is from unofficial tallies. </p><p><br /></p><p>Sara Duterte has been elected Vice President, with ~47%, slightly more than Marcos. Francis Pangilinan took ~13.5%, he was Roberdo's running mate. Tito Sotto is the one who really beat expectations, taking ~12% of the vote. He was the running mate of the 4th placed Presidential candidate. </p><p>Sotto is a Conservative. Pangilinan is where we run into the first complexity in covering Philippine politics; family. Let's look at how this 'works'. </p>For example, Incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte was part of Laban, but founded PFP. Bongbong Marcos backs PFP but both were supported by Lakas. Sara Duterte is running with Lakas, not PFP. This continues historically; Ferdinand Marcos, the dictator, was part of the Nationalist party, which is the same party his opponent Corazon Aquino, the opposition leader he had assassinated. In short, 'party' is not as important here as which 'side' you are on in terms of family disputes.<div><br /></div><div>Knowing who are what "Lakas" is, thus is far less important than knowing which "side" people are on, and the major "side" that won here is "Marcos"</div><div><br /></div><div>Bongbong Marcos is on the "Marcos" side, while people like Roberdo and especially Pangilinan are closer to the "Aquino" side. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Meanwhile in Germany</div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><div style="text-align: left;">The Schleswig-Holstein election, as mentioned, returned the governing CDU as the largest party. One seat short of a majority. By default, the party would want to reach out to the FDP, the Business-Liberal party. However, the local CDU leader may be a moderate, who might wish a coalition with another party. One interesting option is the SSW.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />SSW is an ethnic minority party. In 1947, the party took 9.3% of the vote, and, in 1950, they took 5.5%. Between then and 2022, they never got over the 5% threshold. In 2022, they took 5.7% of the vote. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />As a minority party, the party wins seats regardless of the threshold. The party represents minority Danish interests, and has generally centrist liberal policies. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">If the SSW and CDU can come to an agreement, it could be an alternative coalition. The parties, however, have some distance between them on certain issues. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">It is always possible the CDU will try to sit with the SPD or the Greens for some reason, or, try to govern 1 seat short. Regardless, I am following things.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">In Northern Ireland</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">There's no sign yet that a brand new agreement is in the works. As such, it may be most realistic to look for adjustments to the existing agreement, similar to how the Belfast Agreement upgraded the Good Friday Agreement. There's nothing new to update just yet, but I want to make clear I am following things, and will let you know if and when something develops. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Elsewhere</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">In the UK, local elections were held. It is difficult to judge exactly what these things mean as only certain areas vote at certain times. Comparing this to the 2018 results (same seats), Labour continues to rise. It is in other years that the Conservatives do much better. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">It is far more useful to look outside England. Scotland saw the Tories down, losing ~60 seats, with all the other (major) parties gaining. Wales has a much more direct change, with the Tories losing ~85 seats and Labour taking ~65 of them. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">As always, I continue to monitor polls in various countries. There's nothing to update in Israel, Italy, or the republic of Ireland. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">In Australia, polls seem to think that a 54-46 split may be where things settle. This would result in a Labor government. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Lastly, here in Ontario, I am following things. However, at this time, there's nothing much to comment on. I expect that by this time next week I will have a much clearer view on what may be happening. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><p></p><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-76181119875329270122022-05-08T20:27:00.003-04:002022-05-08T20:27:40.762-04:00Election results, Northern Ireland and more<p> Full Northern Ireland results are in. </p>27-SF<br />25-DUP<br />17-APNI<br />9-UUP<br />8-SDLP<br />4-others<p style="text-align: left;">With these results, there are 3 possible options.</p><p style="text-align: left;">1 - Return to the norm. This would see the basic structure of government outlined in the Good Friday Agreement. (AKA The "Agreement"). This simply means a new 5 party coalition, with a first minister and deputy first minister from Sf and the DUP respectively. </p><p style="text-align: left;">2 - Remain broken. Before the election, there was no sitting executive. The DUP first minister had resigned. This, if it continued for some time (say, more than 6 months) could lead to more extensive negotiations. </p><p style="text-align: left;">3 - A new agreement. This is what I expect. The parties, I think, are ready to talk now, and not wait. Exactly what will change remains to be seen, but I suspect the current double majority system will see an overhaul, if not be replaced by a qualified majority. I plan to address this further in a future post.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">In Schleswig-Holstein the CDU appears to have been re-elected, with 34 of the 69 available seats, meaning it can drop a party from it's existing coalition with the FDP and Greens. The Greens took 14 seats, the SPD 12, the FDP 5, and the SSW took 4. I may expand more on this later.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-27409021790170430382022-05-06T11:00:00.005-04:002022-05-06T12:30:28.332-04:00Northern Ireland, early election results<p> Lets start in Mid Ulster. On the first ballot, SF has gained 1 seat, that of it's leader, Michelle O'Neill. However they have two other candidates very close to the threshold, and, will all but certainly pass the threshold on transfers. More interesting, is the DUP, which is closer to the threshold, under 100 votes. My "projection" had the DUP losing this seat to the UUP. The UUP is far, far behind, behind the TUV even. This likely means the end result is, in terms of party seats won, the same as last time. </p><p>In Strangford, where I expected the DUP to lose a seat to the Alliance, the Alliance has under-performed. Instead, the TUV looks set to gain that seat I expected to go to the Alliance instead. </p><p>In East Belfast, the UUP has outperformed the TUV, and so, it looks like there will be no change in the party makeup here. </p><p>In short; things are "chaotic" vs the simple party vote transfer that I did in my projection. Parties are up in one place, down in another. As such, I'm going to use these early results to make a new "projection"</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>edited to add: updated "projection"</p><div style="text-align: left;">27-SF<br />25-DUP<br />18-APNI<br />9-UUP<br />7-SDLP<br />4-others</div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-1775169191859747962022-05-04T16:24:00.002-04:002022-05-04T16:24:58.138-04:00Northern Ireland Election, "projection"<p> I did some quick math, based on yesterdays post, to make a "projection" of how things may turn out.</p><p>East Londonderry, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Lagan Valley, and Belfast West, would see no change to the party representation of the 5 members they each send to the assembly. South Antrim also would see no change, but, only because the Alliance has failed to run a second candidate. If they'd chosen to do so, these numbers suggest they'd take a seat from the DUP. However, they did not do so, so, no change.</p><p><br /></p><p>North Antrim may see the TUV take a seat from the DUP. However, pending TUV vote strength, there may end up being no change, but, a TUV gain is slightly more likely than not.</p><p>Belfast South is also only "likely" to see a chance, with the DUP likely losing a seat. If it does, the Alliance could take it, or, the UUP may, but, the chances are higher the Alliance does. </p><p>These two changes would see the DUP down by 2, and the TUV and APNI up by 1, with an outside chance the TUV and UUP each gain 1 instead, or, the DUP simply retain both seats.</p><p>Belfast North is another place the DUP may lose a seat. However, the SDLP is also vulnerable. The Alliance will almost certainly win a seat here.</p><p>East Antrim, North Down, and Strangford both are nearly certain to see the DUP lose 1 seat each to the Alliance.</p><p>West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, and Newry and Armagh, are both near certainly going to see the DUP lose 1 seat each to the UUP, simply due to DUP vote weakness. </p><p>Foyle is nearly certainly going to see the DUP lose a seat to PBP. </p><p>The DUP is near certain to lose an East Belfast seat. the question is to whom. I have the TUV pegged as the likely winner of that seat, as the Alliance, which otherwise would win, already has 2 seats here.</p><p>South Down is also a near certain DUP loss, but this time it is the Alliance that is more likely to pick up the seat, over the UUP. </p><p>Upper Bann and Belfast North are both near certain Alliance gains, but the question is, from who. most likely the DUP in both seats, but they could also take the seat from the SDLP. </p><p><br /></p><p>This would see the DUP lose 14 seats. APNI gain 8. UUP gain 3. TUV gain 2. and PBP gain 1. </p><p><br /></p><div style="text-align: left;">SF - 27<br />APNI - 16<br />DUP - 14<br />UUP - 13<br />SDLP - 12<br />TUV - 3<br />GRN - 2<br />PBP - 2<br />INDU - 1</div><p><br /></p><p>This would be a major shift in politics in Northern Ireland. It remains to be seen if this is indeed how things will play out, or, if this over-estimates the number of seats the DUP will lose to the Alliance. </p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-52076290854199205362022-05-04T12:05:00.000-04:002022-05-04T12:05:12.403-04:00Northern Ireland elections tomorrow.<p> Just a quick post, where I'll detail polls for the coming NI election. </p><p>Previous election vs most recent poll</p><div style="text-align: left;">28.1% - 18.2% - DUP<br />27.9% - 26.6% - SF<br />12.9% - 12.1% - UUP<br />11.9% - 10.5% - SDLP<br />9.1% - 18.2% - APNI<br />2.6% - 5.7% - TUV<br />2.3% - 2.9% - GRN<br />1.8% - 2.1% - PBP</div><p>I summarize this as follows:</p><p>SF, UUP, SDLP, GRN, and PBP are all, roughly, where they were last election. As such, in any quick 'rule of thumb' 'educated guesstimation' of an election prediction; you can expect them to maintain the same vote level in each constituency. </p><p>TUV and APNI are up by double. Meaning in such a guesstimation you can expect their vote total to double in each constituency. </p><p>DUP is down by a third. As such, you can guesstimate that in each constituency they will lose one third of their vote. </p><p><br /></p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-153958391457859179.post-34957101918276798252022-04-26T14:47:00.003-04:002022-04-26T14:47:42.585-04:00French and Slovene elections<p> Sorry for the late update; but regardless.</p><p><br /></p><p>Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent President of France, has won re-election, with 58.5% of the vote vs his opponent Marine Le Pen, who took 41.5%. I want to examine this further, and will do so, in a future post about the upcoming legislative elections.</p><p><br /></p><p>In Slovenia, a brand new pro-europe liberal party has won the elections, taking 41 of the 90 seats. In doing so, they've pushed all the other liberal parties out of the legislature. In the last legislature, the various liberal parties had 33 seats. The results are as follows:</p><div style="text-align: left;">41 - GS - 34.5% - Liberal, pro-europe (gain of 41 seats)<br />27 - SDS - 23.5% - Nationalist, anti-europe (gain of 2 seats)<br />8 - NSI - 6.9% - Christian Democrats, pro-europe (gain of 1 seat)<br />7 - SD - 6.7% - Social Democrat, pro-europe (loss of 3 seats)<br />5 - L - 4.4% - Socialist, anti-europe (loss of 4 seats)</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />The most likely coalition is between GS and SD. However, I personally would not rule out one between GS and NSI. NSI however may be tainted by being in the incumbent coalition. </div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>TheNewTeddyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06228483163653481450noreply@blogger.com0