A shorter post today. Until I see more polls that have polled the period of time after Wynne's announcement, there is not much I can do wrt updating the projection.
Instead, I wanted to address another issue. That of riding polls which have been locked behind a paywall.
For new readers; I am on ODSP. This means that I get $1151 a month, which has to cover everything. Half of that goes to rent for my literally 10 foot by 10 foot sized apartment, and after you take off the internet, I have $465 left for the month. If I were to buy access to these riding polls, it would have to come from this; the same budget for my groceries.
I am fortunate, however, in that some people donate to my Patreon. This is currently at $5, almost all of which is taken up by donations to people who provide me with hours upon hours upon hours of free entertainment that I enjoy on a daily basis. I want to give them more.
The riding polls, I know from those who have access to them, show a strong PC result. However, no provincial polls are telling me the PC party is as strong as the riding polls are telling them.
Bluntly, this puts me in a very difficult situation.
Should the riding polls turn out to be correct, I may need to stop projections altogether. I'll literally have been priced from the market. I simply can not justify spending a whopping 12% of my post-rent budget on access to polls. To help understand how much money this is for me, I've done some math.
Supposedly, the median income for Canada is $76,000 per family, while the average rent is $989. Assuming other similar bills (like a car payment) which I will include in rent, this would leave a person with roughly $5000 a month, meaning 12% is equal to $600.
I hope this helps explain exactly why I can not possibly hope to afford this.
In short; if the provincial polls continue to show no rush to the PC Party, the riding polls do, and the PC party does indeed win by the margins the riding polls suggested, then I will have to stop making projections. There's no point in spending hours of research every day to simply embarrass myself.