Why Trump has such a difficult path to victory

One week and one day to go before the polls open.

I want you to take a look at this map http://www.270towin.com/maps/r7Nlo

Every state in blue on this map has (as of the time of writing) not had a poll showing a Trump lead in weeks.

Maine, the only state where Trump has had one poll showing a small lead in that period, is already showing one EV going to him. If he were to win the entire state, the EV would spit 50/50

However, recall that the top 3 candidates go to the vote in the House. While Republicans do control congress, they do not like Trump. It would only take a half dozen faithless electors to vote for a candidate much more acceptable to them, and, as one of the top three, the house could simply vote for that person to be President. It's possible this person could simply be Mike Pence. Since someone can not be both President and Vice President; President Pence would then get to appoint someone else to the VP job, and the Senate (with whom I'm sure he would consult, should it be won by Republicans) would confirm it. Then again, Paul Ryan might win a few Electoral Votes, and thus, moving from the job of unwilling Speaker to unwilling President.

Remember too that in the above map, Trump is winning any state where he is currently competitive. The current math suggests that he will win far, far fewer states and electoral votes.

I simply wanted to remind everyone how far behind he is and how much he has to overcome if he intends to win.

Iceland Election - Final results (counting complete)

With the possible exception of ever-more translation misunderstandings, the final counts are complete and the results are in:

21 - Independence (Conservative)
10 - Left-Greens
10 - Pirate
8 - Progressive (Rural Liberal)
7 - Reform (Moderate Reformist)
4 - Bright Future (Left Reformist)
3 - Social Democrats

The big shocker is that the "government" has done so well. Expectations were that they would win roughly 5 fewer seats total, and the Opposition parties would win these 5 additional seats. It seems, however, that Icelandic voters think the government is doing an okay job, at least, when compared to the possibly "scary" options offered by the opposition.

The Government has won 29 seats, down 9, while the opposition has taken 27, up 2.

The remaining 7 seats have been won by the new Reform Party.

Reform, known as Vidreisen in Icelandic (also translatable as Revival or Regeneration) is the big winner, gaining 7 seats and entering Parliament. Their leader, Benedikt Johannesson, is a former member of Independence. He is also CEO of a large publishing company, and is the chief editor of Iceland's largest English newspaper. 

Lets also remember that something like 4 in 5 Icelanders speak English, and it's mandatory in School, (therefore, demographically leans young) meaning nearly any Icelandic visitor to this blog will be able to understand most if not all of it (Hello Iceland!) Not relevant to the election so much, but something I thought I should point out.

Bjarni Benediktsson, Independence leader, is now in the drivers seat. The opposition's unofficial coalition seems to be lead by Birgitta Jonsdottir, the Pirate Party leader, but her party has finished 3rd behind the Left-Greens, who are lead by Katrin Jakobsdottir. (I should point out that Icelandic surnames tend to follow a specific pattern, with dottir or sson being appended to the end of the father's first name, in fact, only 6 of the 63 MPs elected have other last names.)

Regardless, the result is that the Government might return to power with a new coalition partner. 

One interesting thing I see is media reports about the election. Any media that had been following the election is reporting that this election has been a failure for the Pirates; and given that the party was sitting on a whopping 29 seats in a poll on April 5th, it certainly seems that way. Media that have not been paying attention only see the change from the last election, more than tripling the seat total, and as a result, report it as a massive victory. 

The clear result, however, can be seen in the change from the poll average of the 5 most recent polls, seen on the right below, and the results, seen on the left hand side below:

29.0% - Independence - 24.7%

15.9% - Left-Greens - 16.4%

14.5% - Pirates - 19.4%

11.5% - Progressives - 10.1%

10.5% - Reform - 9.8%

8.3% - Bright Future - 7.1%

5.7% - Social Democrats - 6.5%

Or combined into the 'coalitions' outlined above:

40.5% - Conservative - 34.8%

44.4% - Opposition - 49.4%

10.5% - Reform - 9.8%

I should note here that while the Social Democrats and Left-Greens were very receptive to Pirate offers of a post-election coalition, both Reform and Bright Future hedged their bets. However, I am lumping Bright Future in with the Pirates et al for 3 key reasons.

1 - Their leader was the lead singer of a rock band and still looks like one. Most "respectable" (read: conservative) Icelandic politicians do not have long beards

2 - Their leader, and most of their party, comes from the "Best Party". A joke party that could be compared to the Rhino Party, that was formed out of protest, and won the Reykjavik elections; then proceeded to govern from an "outsider-left" platform

3 - The party had seats in the outgoing Parliament, and thus, was officially part of "the opposition" whereas Reform is a new party that had no members.

Bright Future supporters may disagree, but I do not see a realistic chance of the party entering into a coalition with Independence and the Progressives, whereas Reform may well do so, and, any left-wing coalition will require their support; meaning as a functional bloc, they are either not needed to get a majority, or needed in the opposition coalition.

Lastly, a note to readers. I've spoken to quite a few Americans about this election, and have given links to my blog. There's been some question from them about various "Liberal" parties that I noted. Please keep in mind that I write for a Canadian audience (this is something for Europeans who read as well). As such, when I use Liberal, I use it in the Canadian context. This means it's more right-wing than Americans think, and more left-wing than Europeans think. It's also why I, for example, chose "Reform" when presented with 3 options, as, Canada has indeed had a Reform party with some right-wing leanings; Though this party is nowhere near that right-wing. 

Context is always important, and I feel that sometimes that specific context - who I write for - is lost. As such, I wanted to ensure everyone was on the same page with regard to that issue. 

Iceland's continuing Election

An update from earlier posts; something had indeed been lost in the translation. Iceland continues to count ballots. I've also been reading up on the two potential coalitions that have been setting themselves up for power overnight.

The updates numbers, coalitions, and maps, are as follows:

RESULTS

While counting continues (as far as I can tell) the current results are as follows:

21 - Independence (Conservative)
11 - Left-Greens
9 - Pirate
8 - Progressive (Rural Liberal)

7 - Reform (Green-Liberal-Reformist)
4 - Bright Future (Liberal-Reformist)

3 - Social Democrats

COALITIONS:

The Social Democrats have, unlike my earlier estimation, committed strongly to a coalition with 3 other left-wing parties. The Pirates, Left-Greens, and Bright Future.

Reform, however, has not made such a commitment. The party, in fact, is quite pro-europe, and has appealed to many small c conservative voters. The Party could enter into a coalition with the existing government.

29 - Government

27 - Opposition

7 - Reform

MAP:

As such the update map is as follows:

Note the one "undecided" seat. Iceland has two major media sources that I've been using, their main TV network, and their main newspaper. The two disagree about the final numbers. The Newspaper, however, has been far more conservative about it's calls all night, not "declaring" winners until quite late. As such, I've used it for this map.

Icelandic Election: Results

The final results are in.

A few caveats. All the information I could find was in Icelandic, and despite some help from Google Translate, the information I did get was somewhat incomplete. If I understand things, all 6 electoral districts have reported in, but, the math to distribute the seats is complex, and as such, there may still be final movements, as, I'm simply using media estimations based on the vote totals.

Note, the number in brackets are seats yet confirmed. The number outside the brackets are the confirmed seats

21 (0) - Independence (Conservative)
10 (0) - Left-Greens
9 (0) - Pirate
7 (0) - Progressive (Rural Liberal)

6 (1) - Reform (Green-Liberals)

3 (2) - Bright Future (Liberal)

3 (1) - Social Democrats

However, as usual, I have a map:

I've tried to position the logos within each area according to which 'side' I think they may form a coalition with, and even then, to position them within the groupings based on who is most likely to leave said grouping.

The Left-Greens and Pirates are all but sure to try to form a coalition, as are Independence and the Progressives. The two 'swing' parties are Reform and Bright Future. While both have "Liberal" policies, both are "anti-establishment" more than "Liberal" and, as such, are unlikely to back the government.

As a result the two more "Conservative" parties have a combined 28. This is the governing coalition. The two big "Left" parties, have 19. The "reformists" have a combined 12, while the Social Democrats have 4.

If the Social Democrats back the government, this is enough for a majority; but a simple Left-reformist coalition is short by only 1 seat.

Remember, however, that complex math. There are still nuances about this electoral system that are unclear to me, and if just a single seat is flipped, the Social Democrats could form a majority with the government. I am uncertain about current policies, but this party has sat in government coalitions with these parties in the past. While writing this, as the math is worked out, that single seat has indeed flipped, then flipped back again.

The one seat that seems left that's truly undecided is in Reykjavik North, and could go either to the Left-Greens or to Reform.

One truly impressive thing is that Independence has gained seats since the last election, whereas the polls suggested they were set to lose a few.

As such the math currently suggests that Katrin Jakobsdottir, the Left-Greens leader, will become the new Prime Minister, with a possibility of Bjarni Benediktsson the Independence Party leader becoming PM instead.

Iceland Elections - Counting Contiunues

If I understand this (and it's all in Icelandic, so I likely don't) the final results are as follows:

21 - Independence (Conservative)
11 - Left-Greens

9 - Pirate
7 - Reform (Green-Liberals)

7 - Progressive (Rural Liberal)
4 - Social Democrats
4 - Bright Future (Liberal)

The Coalition (Independence and Progressive) looks to have won 28 seats, but needs 32 for a government, meaning it's possible, but not likely, they could remain in government. 

Will make another post in the morning with more information.

Iceland Election - Early Counts

Votes are still being counted, but the early results in the Iceland election are as follows:

19 - Independence (Conservative)
12 - Pirate
11 - Left-Greens
6 - Progressive (Rural Liberal)
6 - Reform (Green-Liberals)
5 - Social Democrats
4 - Bright Future (Liberal)

This suggests a 4 party coalition headed by the Pirates and Left-Greens

How much will the new e-mail scandal hurt Clinton?

Figuring some of my readers may be asking this, I thought I'd provide an answer.

"Not much"

Perhaps a few points, 1 or 2, maybe even enough to swing 2 or 3 swing states (ALL of which are currently leaning towards Clinton) but not enough to swing the election.

If Clinton loses, it will be because of more than just this latest e-mail scandal.


Edited to add: How bad could it be? This bad:

Icelandic Election

Tomorrow, Iceland goes to the polls.

Before I get to the future, I'll look at the past:

In 1937, prior to Independence of the country, the election produced the following result:
11/6 - Independence Party
12/7 - Progressive Party
6/2 - Social Democrats
2/1 - Communist Party
2/0 - Farmers Party

At the time, there was an upper house, results show after the slash.

There were two elections in 1942, during the middle of WW2 and the Allied Occupation (which was designed to deter a NAZI occupation) The second of those elections had the following results:

13/7 - Independence Party
10/5 - Progressive Party
7/3 - Socialist Party (Communistic)
5/2 - Social Democrats

By late 1959, the elections were producing results like this:

16/8 - Independence Party
11/6 - Progressive Party
7/3 - Peoples Alliance (Hard Left)
6/3 - Social Democratic

Finally, in 1991, the two houses merged, and the 1995 election produced the following results:

25 - Independence Party
15 - Progressive Party
9 - Peoples Alliance (hard left)
7 - Social Democratic
4 - National Awakening (left)
3 - Women's List

By this time, coalitions had taken a few forms.
Independence preferred to form alliances with the Social Democrats, while the Progressives liked to form alliances with the Peoples Alliance. However, there were times when both Independence and Progressive would sit in coalition as well. Starting in 1995, however, IP/PP Coalitions were more common, and while the lead of the coalition would change, it would last until 2007.

25 - Independence
18 - Social Democratic Alliance (merger of some earlier parties)
9 - Left-Greens
8 - Progressives
4 - Liberal Party

As you can see, the Progressives had lost quite a bit of popularity, being seen as simply a part of coalitions including the

The Great Recession hit Iceland hard. An election had to be held by 2009.

20 - Social Democratic Alliance
16 - Independence Party
14 - Left-Greens
9 - Progressives
4 - Citizens Movement (Liberal/Populist/Protest)

Despite the new left-wing government (SDA/LG) things continued to get worse for Iceland, and by the next election, in 2013 (the final election before the current one) the Progressives had made a strong recovery, being seen as a possible alternative to the then major parties.

19 - Independence
19 - Progressive
9 - Social Democratic Alliance
7 - Left-Greens
6 - Bright Future
3 - Pirate Party


This brings us to the current time.

Over the past elections, Iceland had been dominated by only a small number of parties. Except for a small period in 1959 where tight competition between the two major parties allowed the Social Democrats to form a government, most governments had either been lead by Independence or the Progressives. This continued until 2009, when the Social Democrats and Left-Greens formed a government of their own.

Things, however, changed.
The political damage done by the great recession can easily be seen by a poll during the crisis earlier this year.

In April, on the eve of a possible snap election, the polls showed this was the most likely result:
28 - Pirate
16 - Independence (Conservative)
7 - Left-Greens
7 - Social Democrats
5 - Progressive (Rural Liberal)

Since then we've seen some changes. Important among them is that two other parties, both liberal in outlook, have risen. Additionally, the Progressives, hard hit by scandal, have recovered. Finally, the Left-Greens have gained support as well.

My current prediction is as follows:

16 - Independence (Conservative)
12 - Pirate
11 - Left-Greens
8 - Progressive (Rural Liberal)
6 - Reform (Green-Liberals)
6 - Social Democrats
4 - Bright Future (Liberal)

There are 63 seats in the Parliament, so a majority of 32 is needed. The Pirates and Left-Greens have a combined 23 on these numbers. This is, of course, just a prediction, and could be off. However, there are little to no chances that a simple two or even three party coalition can govern.

I am, however, fairly certain the left is set to win. The Progressives are behind the scandals of the past government, and the Independence Party has already said they'd refuse to with with the Pirate Party (who feels the same about them) As such, the chance that either of the two current government parties gets into government is minimal.

I'll keep you updated on the results; if possible, as the numbers come in.

US Projection Update

States are beginning to solidify

US Update; roughly 2 weeks to go

I've updated the map with additional features:

Note the potential faithless elector in Washington is now considered to be leaning Clinton, as, in my judgement, we'll hear from this person again prior to the election if they do vote for someone else, and, we've not heard from them again at this point.

"Polls"

A quick post. I wanted to expand a bit on some feedback I got from an earlier post I had made about the polls possibly being wrong.

In particular, people's responses to me were that because polls have different methodologies... and the such, which indicates to me that I've not been being very clear.

When I say "Polls" or "The Polls" I am not referring to one poll, or a small collection of polls, I mean all the polls. Not just all the polls, but all the polls taken together as one. To me even things like this are inaccurate. What matters is the trend. If Clinton has been leading by a wide margin, according to not just one poll aggregator and averager, but many, and have done so over a period of time, then, and only then, do "the polls say" that Clinton has a lead, according to me.

I wanted to clear up that context for not only past but future posts as well. When I say "polls" I use that term very strictly, and if I am referring to an individual poll, I will always point it out.

UK Projection Update

Less of an update and more of a new projection; I've done a trend based projection.

I expect a few changes from recent polls. The Tories should be expected to rise, especially as people come to terms with the options. UKIP meanwhile is almost certain to implode. There are a few things that could save UKIP from that fate, but at this time, I don't see them happening. (Many of them involve Farage returning as leader) The LibDems also could well do better. Corbyn was never fully committed to the EU, nor was May. The LibDems, however, are. I expect that a good portion of Pro-EU voters will rush to the LibDems as an alternative option.

I'm also abstaining from a Northern Ireland projection. I do see a possibility of APNI regaining a seat, but I've not put the time in to properly dig into the facts, so, for now, I'm simply projecting "18 NI seats".

You may notice that means I'm using the current/old map. This is true. I expect an election this (coming) spring that will use the old map, and not the new one, where brexit is the main issue. As a result, I not only expect the Tories will do better, but that they will do very well in the North, due to UKIP voters (many of whom were past Labour voters) going for the Tories this time.

As such, this is my current projection:

A bit of caution; some of these numbers don't exactly add up. I'm unsure where I went wrong, but the error should not be more than a few seats, one way or another.

A few things to note.

Compared to a national uniform swing, the Tories are expected to gain seats in the North, Scotland, and Wales, while compared to a uniform national swing, Labour is expected to gain (or more accurately, lose fewer) seats in London. The SNP is also expected to retreat slightly, only by a few points, but it will be enough for more non-SNP seats to poke through. This will increase the number of non-SNP MPs (from Scotland) from 3 to 10.

Either way the result is the same, roughly 55% or more of the seats won by the Conservative Party.

US Projection Update

Just updating the existing trends:

USA: how the polls could be wrong

There are three "ways" the US election could play out from here. We've seen that Trump support is relatively solid despite recent events, but that this level of support is not great enough to win.

As such I want to examine 3 scenarios that are all plausible and possible.



1 - The polls are right

This is the simplest one. Polls are correct, and the states that people expect will be won by one or the other candidate, will, in fact, be won by that candidate. Not much more to say beyond that.



2 - The polls are over-estimating Clinton

This presumes that a lot of people like Trump, but given all the negative coverage, are unwilling to admit it either to others or themselves. If this is correct, Trump could still win the Presidency. The explanation is simply that there are enough "old white male racists" who vote to push him over the top.



3 - The polls are over-estimating Trump

The basis for this conclusion is that a lot of Republicans think Trump is insane, but like above, don't want to admit to others or themselves that they are willing to vote for Clinton to stop him. If this is correct, the reason would simply be that people are "willing to vote for a crook" to stop Trump.




The fact that we have two candidates that are so controversial is why I'm unwilling to call a winner with any certainty. I'm thinking the polls likely are wrong, however, if both 2 and 3 are happening at the same time, the end result would likely be similar to what we are expecting. One way to see if we are seeing event #1 or event #2+3 is what happens in the "solid" states. States like Alabama, California, Oklahoma, and New York are all expected to be won by a lead of between 20 and 30 points. If these states are only won by 10 points, or even less, and that is not biased to one side (IE both 'losing' parties do better, not just one of them) then we can say that we are actually looking at the polls being wrong twice.


Either way, this chaotic election won't be decided until election day, and, as always, there's a chance that even then, we won't get our final answer.

Being right and personal troubles

As many of you know, I once had a website called ridingbyriding. I lost it because I couldn't pay the bills, in part, because of depression. One thing that aggravated my depression was the fact that I was right when projecting the 2011 election, and 308 was wrong, yet 308 got all the publicity. Why is that? I can't wirte good. Don't get me wrong, I'm great with numbers, but when it comes to writing, I know I lack skills. Beyond that, I honestly don't feel I should need good writing skills. I am here to present, to you, the numbers. I am here to help you understand them. I am not here to write for you.

In 2015 I decided to again do some projecting, and managed only 63 errors, while Earl Andrew of the Canadian Election Atlas managed 62. Earl, I should mention, works for Ekos, while I am unemployed.

Why does any of this matter? Well in part, because of this:
http://heatst.com/world/exclusive-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll-independent-conservative-ties-trump/
and stuff like it.

Utah is the state to watch.
Why does this upset me? Let me quote from a post I made in August. Early August.

In Utah in particular, it's possible the winner will take under 1/3rd of the vote,

. No other state has such a potential vote split, and so I will continue to keep an eye on Utah.

At the time of the post McMullin had not been able to get on the ballot in Utah.  He since has, and he's been sweeping up all the Anti-Trump and Anti-Clinton voters.

So, for a guy who was "right" about Utah, months ago, I must be doing well. Right?
No.
I average 25 readers. One of them is me.

I was planning on writing a big-long "why you should follow me" post; this was the "big post" I kept eluding to, but the more I think about these things the more depressed it makes me; literally. I've battled depression and suffered from it in the past to the point that I've needed to be hospitalized for my own protection.

Nobody cares if you are right, or have the best insights. The reality is that I have one facebook friend I don't talk to as much as I should and every time he posts a link to my blog my readership doubles, only to drop back to regular levels the very next post. He has so large of a facebook following that he can outclass my blog with a simple link.

For this latest update I've found out about a Hillary Clinton elector in Washington (the state) who says he will not vote for her. He may vote for Sanders, or perhaps even protest and vote for Johnson or McMullin.

Yet even if I show him on the map, and am right, nobody will care once the ballots are all counted. People want to read Nate Silver, because he writes well.


I'm not really sure why I'm writing this; but I do want people to understand why I don't post as much as I could. I often feel as though I'm screaming into a void. Add to that the fact that I've been feeling generally "ill" and can't figure out why.


Either way. I'll end on a happy note. A map:

Delay in schedule

Due to personal illness I'm delaying my "big" post to a later date. I will try to maintain somewhat regular posts however during this period.

Wide-Ranging Update

Lets start at home, with this very blog. I am gearing up for a long post on Monday morning. Stay tuned for that. I also thought I'd go around the world and look at various countries, and provinces, and give updates on how things are going there; as they've fallen a bit to the way side given the news out of the USA.



Australian Capital Territory:
The next election to occur will be here, which will happen tomorrow. No polls have been released but there is some expectation that the Liberals will do well in this traditionally Labor area. If they win it will be the first Liberal government in the territory since 2001.



Yukon:
In November, the Yukon goes to the polls. Like ACT, due to it's small size, polls are spotty. Historically, polls have not been of much use in the territory. There are some thing the "political experts" agree on, one of which is the Liberals are doing well. As such I predict that all three ridings with "North" in the name will be taken by the Liberals. Not because they are northern, but because none of them has an incumbent running, and all of them are in Whitehorse, where a swing to or from a party is more commonplace. All three are currently held by the Yukon Party, so if nothing else changes, the assembly would have a 9-6-4 makeup, and thus, a minority. Despite the fact there are no significant polls, it is my opinion a minority is probably the most likely outcome of this election.



Iceland:
The only other election that catches my interest prior to the US election. My current projection is as follows:

19 - Independence (Conservative)
9 - Progressive (Rural Liberal)
28 - Government (minority)

15 - Pirate
10 - Left-Greens
7 - Green-Liberals
5 - Social Democrats
4 - Bright Future (Green Liberal)
41 - Opposition (majority)

This would allow the opposition to force a new coalition should they wish to work together. The Pirate Party, Left-Greens, and Social Democrats together would take 30 seats, more than the Government's 28. 35 is what's needed for a majority. The Green-Liberals could thus provide that for either side, but with the Progressives in scandal, it's quite possible that the opposition may simply form their own government.



Spain:
In terms of possible elections, Spain could go to the polls this december. The Socialist PSOE is in chaos right now as the party is tearing itself apart deciding weather or not to force another election or to allow the conservative PP to form a minority government. Polls suggest the PSOE is suffering due to this infighting.



There are also a number of other countries that I passively follow.



Iraq:
It's always a good idea to keep an eye on Iraq. Unfortunately information is sketchy at the current time, but the existing parliament does continue to sit.



Ireland:
Polls show that FF is up by a few points from the last election, and also show SF is up (but polls did the same last time and the SF vote did not increase by nearly as much as suggested) The one thing that polls do generally agree on is the vote for "others" is down a few points, while some of the tiny parties from the last election are polling at or near 0.



Italy:
What's interesting here is the 5 star movement has effectively replaced Berlusconi's party as the main opposition to the socialist government. Not much about Italy's politics makes much sense in context to standard Canadian politics, so comparisons can be difficult at best.



Sweden:
As predicted, the 'deal' struck to avoid a snap election in 2014 has only caused support for the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats to rise. Currently the two main parties are neck and neck, and their alliances are very close in the polls as well, but neither is anywhere near being able to take a stable majority, as the SDs sit on 20% or so of the vote.



United Kingdom:
Polls generally remain stable with the Tories at or above 40%, Labour at or below 30%, and UKIP between 10% and 15%. The other parties are below that. Leadership elections and decisions have not significantly impacted polling numbers as of yet.



France:
Due to the hybrid nature of France's elections, it's difficult to say one party is "winning". The Ultra-nationalist FN is doing well, but will likely not form a government. LePen (FN leader) does poorly against other leading contenders for President, but should she end up in a 1-on-1 race against the right person, she could easily win. In Parliament FN could take 70 or more seats, but would be far from a majority, which would require an additional 200 seats. Due to France's "two round" system (like a ranked ballot where FPTP skips all but the final step, so the F2PTP go to the final round) very small changes can have very large impacts.



Germany:
The CDU/CSU is down from the last time I looked at Germany. They remain outside of striking distance to take government with their traditional coalition partner, the FDP. On the flip side, the SPD also remains far outside striking range with their traditional coalition partner as well. The up-side to this is the existing CDU/CSU - SPD coalition continues to retain 50%+1 support in polls, and as such, the coalition could easily be re-elected. The only question is weather or not to continue such a coalition given that both parties, combined, have around 55% in recent polls, while they had a combined 70% of the vote when they first formed the coalition in 2005.



Japan:
There has only been one poll since Renho's election as DP leader, and it saw the party increase it's standing while the government fell back. While the governing DPJ could likely retain a majority in parliament on these levels, they would no longer be guaranteed the 2/3rds majority they won in the last election. It remains to be seen if this gain is permanent or temporary.



Australia:
The Majority in Parliament is somewhat thin, especially due to lack of control in the Senate, so an early election is possible. If it were to happen, Labor would probably win based on current polling numbers. We could also expect an increase in the vote for NXT.



New Zealand:
the final country on the list, polls in New Zealand remain very stable. Long term trends, however, indicate the Nationals could lose a few seats to Labour and NZF.

Check out the competition

538 has a great article about Evan McMullin and has added him to their projections for Utah.

the 538 projections are a massive part of my own projections, but they are not all of it.

Quick Update on Utah

http://www.270towin.com/news/2016/10/12/poll-finds-clinton-trump-tied-in-utah-independent-mcmullin-within-striking-distance_394.html#.V_4zuPkrJpg

A recent poll puts Trump and Clinton in a tie at 26% each, with McMullin behind at 22%, and Johnson in 4th place on only 14%.

We'll have to see if this sticks or not.

Clinton has the momentum

Just a quick update, I've added trends (IE momentum) to the projection.

This is the result:

On these numbers, Clinton wins Utah

Trump takes major fall

It's finally occurred, people have started to hit Donald Trump with stuff that actually sticks. After a year of trying to point out all his outright lies, we've finally seen his actions used to attack him, and boy have those attacks hurt.

As a result, Trump has taken a major fall, so major it's broken the way I've been doing projections to this point. As such I present a new map:

You may notice the Green. I'll get to that.

Many "solid" states have been moved out of the Trump column, something I reserve for extreme events. We will likely not see all of the 'strong' Trump states go to Clinton, but it is possible.

Trump does have a floor, but even that is at risk with news that another equally damaging revelation is set to come out when the group who holds it feels the time is right, and that they have a 3rd, even more damaging revelation set to fire as well.

One thing that came to my attention in my research is that Michigan is becoming a swing-state very quickly, and that by 2020, it could well become one of the swing states targeted by both candidates. This is contrasted with Texas which still has a few more election cycles to go before it becomes a swing state, and Virginia, which is becoming less and less of a swing state and more reliable for the Democrats.

Now, on to the others.


As mentioned a few times before, Utah is the state I'm playing the most attention to this election.

Polls indicate a new candidate has a chance to do well, Evan McMullin. He is not only a local (from Utah) but also mormon, and, pro-life. Contrast this with Johnson who is seem as silly (at best) and is pro-choice. Also in the running in the state is Darrell Castle, the Constitution Party candidate; but he is polling at 2%, at best. Even when pollsters try to force people in Utah to pick only between Trump and Clinton, they still end up with at least 15% of the voters. When polls simply ask who people support, at least a third do not support Clinton or Trump. Currently many of them are split between McMullin and Johnson, but Trump's most recent comments (which are too recent to show up in the polls; the polls that are so bad that I've had to totally change how I do projections) especially hit him socially. It's difficult to imagine a devout mormon who already has been questioning Donald Trump will be able to hold out till election day. These comments seem almost designed to drive Utah voters towards McMullin. The 'problem' for him is he is not well known whatsoever, and voters who are unaware of his presence, may lean towards Johnson.

Regardless, at this time, my current numbers indicate that either McMullin or Johnson are leaning in Utah, if only narrowly, over Clinton.

Projects resuming

Projects here on my professional blog are resuming starting now; however, all my video projects will remain halted. The amount of stress the video projects are giving me is only being added by other personal issues I've been facing for the past 2-3 weeks, and as such, the videos will be stopped for the time being.

Tomorrow morning at 7:30am I will release a significant update to the US election projection.

Projects on hold for the time being.

Projects on hold for the time being. Due to personal reasons, all current projects on my professional blog are on hold indefinitely.

Update on videos: a roadmap

I think I've been able to hammer out the structure I want in my videos. This is what I'm thinking of as a blueprint. I should start recording these soon and hopefully will have them all up by the end of the week.

Weekly Update - October 3rd 2016

This is a weekly update. Consider it a blog post you can listen to:

Copyright Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk862BbjWx4&ab_channel=CGPGrey

36 days to go

A quick update.

First, I'm still considering videos and how to make them and what to put in them.

Second, there are 36 days to go before the US election. 36 days are the minimum period that elections take place in, in Canada. Here is the current projection for this week, a day early.