Monday, October 17, 2016

Being right and personal troubles

As many of you know, I once had a website called ridingbyriding. I lost it because I couldn't pay the bills, in part, because of depression. One thing that aggravated my depression was the fact that I was right when projecting the 2011 election, and 308 was wrong, yet 308 got all the publicity. Why is that? I can't wirte good. Don't get me wrong, I'm great with numbers, but when it comes to writing, I know I lack skills. Beyond that, I honestly don't feel I should need good writing skills. I am here to present, to you, the numbers. I am here to help you understand them. I am not here to write for you.

In 2015 I decided to again do some projecting, and managed only 63 errors, while Earl Andrew of the Canadian Election Atlas managed 62. Earl, I should mention, works for Ekos, while I am unemployed.

Why does any of this matter? Well in part, because of this:
and stuff like it.

Utah is the state to watch.
Why does this upset me? Let me quote from a post I made in August. Early August.
In Utah in particular, it's possible the winner will take under 1/3rd of the vote,
. No other state has such a potential vote split, and so I will continue to keep an eye on Utah.
At the time of the post McMullin had not been able to get on the ballot in Utah.  He since has, and he's been sweeping up all the Anti-Trump and Anti-Clinton voters.

So, for a guy who was "right" about Utah, months ago, I must be doing well. Right?
I average 25 readers. One of them is me.

I was planning on writing a big-long "why you should follow me" post; this was the "big post" I kept eluding to, but the more I think about these things the more depressed it makes me; literally. I've battled depression and suffered from it in the past to the point that I've needed to be hospitalized for my own protection.

Nobody cares if you are right, or have the best insights. The reality is that I have one facebook friend I don't talk to as much as I should and every time he posts a link to my blog my readership doubles, only to drop back to regular levels the very next post. He has so large of a facebook following that he can outclass my blog with a simple link.

For this latest update I've found out about a Hillary Clinton elector in Washington (the state) who says he will not vote for her. He may vote for Sanders, or perhaps even protest and vote for Johnson or McMullin.

Yet even if I show him on the map, and am right, nobody will care once the ballots are all counted. People want to read Nate Silver, because he writes well.

I'm not really sure why I'm writing this; but I do want people to understand why I don't post as much as I could. I often feel as though I'm screaming into a void. Add to that the fact that I've been feeling generally "ill" and can't figure out why.

Either way. I'll end on a happy note. A map:

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