Friday, October 14, 2016

Wide-Ranging Update

Lets start at home, with this very blog. I am gearing up for a long post on Monday morning. Stay tuned for that. I also thought I'd go around the world and look at various countries, and provinces, and give updates on how things are going there; as they've fallen a bit to the way side given the news out of the USA.

Australian Capital Territory:
The next election to occur will be here, which will happen tomorrow. No polls have been released but there is some expectation that the Liberals will do well in this traditionally Labor area. If they win it will be the first Liberal government in the territory since 2001.

In November, the Yukon goes to the polls. Like ACT, due to it's small size, polls are spotty. Historically, polls have not been of much use in the territory. There are some thing the "political experts" agree on, one of which is the Liberals are doing well. As such I predict that all three ridings with "North" in the name will be taken by the Liberals. Not because they are northern, but because none of them has an incumbent running, and all of them are in Whitehorse, where a swing to or from a party is more commonplace. All three are currently held by the Yukon Party, so if nothing else changes, the assembly would have a 9-6-4 makeup, and thus, a minority. Despite the fact there are no significant polls, it is my opinion a minority is probably the most likely outcome of this election.

The only other election that catches my interest prior to the US election. My current projection is as follows:

19 - Independence (Conservative)
9 - Progressive (Rural Liberal)
28 - Government (minority)

15 - Pirate
10 - Left-Greens
7 - Green-Liberals
5 - Social Democrats
4 - Bright Future (Green Liberal)
41 - Opposition (majority)

This would allow the opposition to force a new coalition should they wish to work together. The Pirate Party, Left-Greens, and Social Democrats together would take 30 seats, more than the Government's 28. 35 is what's needed for a majority. The Green-Liberals could thus provide that for either side, but with the Progressives in scandal, it's quite possible that the opposition may simply form their own government.

In terms of possible elections, Spain could go to the polls this december. The Socialist PSOE is in chaos right now as the party is tearing itself apart deciding weather or not to force another election or to allow the conservative PP to form a minority government. Polls suggest the PSOE is suffering due to this infighting.

There are also a number of other countries that I passively follow.

It's always a good idea to keep an eye on Iraq. Unfortunately information is sketchy at the current time, but the existing parliament does continue to sit.

Polls show that FF is up by a few points from the last election, and also show SF is up (but polls did the same last time and the SF vote did not increase by nearly as much as suggested) The one thing that polls do generally agree on is the vote for "others" is down a few points, while some of the tiny parties from the last election are polling at or near 0.

What's interesting here is the 5 star movement has effectively replaced Berlusconi's party as the main opposition to the socialist government. Not much about Italy's politics makes much sense in context to standard Canadian politics, so comparisons can be difficult at best.

As predicted, the 'deal' struck to avoid a snap election in 2014 has only caused support for the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats to rise. Currently the two main parties are neck and neck, and their alliances are very close in the polls as well, but neither is anywhere near being able to take a stable majority, as the SDs sit on 20% or so of the vote.

United Kingdom:
Polls generally remain stable with the Tories at or above 40%, Labour at or below 30%, and UKIP between 10% and 15%. The other parties are below that. Leadership elections and decisions have not significantly impacted polling numbers as of yet.

Due to the hybrid nature of France's elections, it's difficult to say one party is "winning". The Ultra-nationalist FN is doing well, but will likely not form a government. LePen (FN leader) does poorly against other leading contenders for President, but should she end up in a 1-on-1 race against the right person, she could easily win. In Parliament FN could take 70 or more seats, but would be far from a majority, which would require an additional 200 seats. Due to France's "two round" system (like a ranked ballot where FPTP skips all but the final step, so the F2PTP go to the final round) very small changes can have very large impacts.

The CDU/CSU is down from the last time I looked at Germany. They remain outside of striking distance to take government with their traditional coalition partner, the FDP. On the flip side, the SPD also remains far outside striking range with their traditional coalition partner as well. The up-side to this is the existing CDU/CSU - SPD coalition continues to retain 50%+1 support in polls, and as such, the coalition could easily be re-elected. The only question is weather or not to continue such a coalition given that both parties, combined, have around 55% in recent polls, while they had a combined 70% of the vote when they first formed the coalition in 2005.

There has only been one poll since Renho's election as DP leader, and it saw the party increase it's standing while the government fell back. While the governing DPJ could likely retain a majority in parliament on these levels, they would no longer be guaranteed the 2/3rds majority they won in the last election. It remains to be seen if this gain is permanent or temporary.

The Majority in Parliament is somewhat thin, especially due to lack of control in the Senate, so an early election is possible. If it were to happen, Labor would probably win based on current polling numbers. We could also expect an increase in the vote for NXT.

New Zealand:
the final country on the list, polls in New Zealand remain very stable. Long term trends, however, indicate the Nationals could lose a few seats to Labour and NZF.

No comments:

Post a Comment