Monday, October 31, 2016

Why Trump has such a difficult path to victory

One week and one day to go before the polls open.

I want you to take a look at this map

Every state in blue on this map has (as of the time of writing) not had a poll showing a Trump lead in weeks.

Maine, the only state where Trump has had one poll showing a small lead in that period, is already showing one EV going to him. If he were to win the entire state, the EV would spit 50/50

However, recall that the top 3 candidates go to the vote in the House. While Republicans do control congress, they do not like Trump. It would only take a half dozen faithless electors to vote for a candidate much more acceptable to them, and, as one of the top three, the house could simply vote for that person to be President. It's possible this person could simply be Mike Pence. Since someone can not be both President and Vice President; President Pence would then get to appoint someone else to the VP job, and the Senate (with whom I'm sure he would consult, should it be won by Republicans) would confirm it. Then again, Paul Ryan might win a few Electoral Votes, and thus, moving from the job of unwilling Speaker to unwilling President.

Remember too that in the above map, Trump is winning any state where he is currently competitive. The current math suggests that he will win far, far fewer states and electoral votes.

I simply wanted to remind everyone how far behind he is and how much he has to overcome if he intends to win.

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