Saturday, October 29, 2016

Icelandic Election: Results

The final results are in.

A few caveats. All the information I could find was in Icelandic, and despite some help from Google Translate, the information I did get was somewhat incomplete. If I understand things, all 6 electoral districts have reported in, but, the math to distribute the seats is complex, and as such, there may still be final movements, as, I'm simply using media estimations based on the vote totals.

Note, the number in brackets are seats yet confirmed. The number outside the brackets are the confirmed seats

21 (0) - Independence (Conservative)
10 (0) - Left-Greens
9 (0) - Pirate
7 (0) - Progressive (Rural Liberal)
6 (1) - Reform (Green-Liberals)
3 (2) - Bright Future (Liberal)
3 (1) - Social Democrats

However, as usual, I have a map:

I've tried to position the logos within each area according to which 'side' I think they may form a coalition with, and even then, to position them within the groupings based on who is most likely to leave said grouping.

The Left-Greens and Pirates are all but sure to try to form a coalition, as are Independence and the Progressives. The two 'swing' parties are Reform and Bright Future. While both have "Liberal" policies, both are "anti-establishment" more than "Liberal" and, as such, are unlikely to back the government.

As a result the two more "Conservative" parties have a combined 28. This is the governing coalition. The two big "Left" parties, have 19. The "reformists" have a combined 12, while the Social Democrats have 4.

If the Social Democrats back the government, this is enough for a majority; but a simple Left-reformist coalition is short by only 1 seat.

Remember, however, that complex math. There are still nuances about this electoral system that are unclear to me, and if just a single seat is flipped, the Social Democrats could form a majority with the government. I am uncertain about current policies, but this party has sat in government coalitions with these parties in the past. While writing this, as the math is worked out, that single seat has indeed flipped, then flipped back again.

The one seat that seems left that's truly undecided is in Reykjavik North, and could go either to the Left-Greens or to Reform.

One truly impressive thing is that Independence has gained seats since the last election, whereas the polls suggested they were set to lose a few.

As such the math currently suggests that Katrin Jakobsdottir, the Left-Greens leader, will become the new Prime Minister, with a possibility of Bjarni Benediktsson the Independence Party leader becoming PM instead.

1 comment:

  1. It should be noted that Independence will have no less than 3 MPs from each district, while no other party will have more than 2 from any district (with the caveat that Reykjavik North could change this when the final seats are distributed*)

    * Each district sends 2 MPs to the Althing that is based (though a complex formula) on the nationwide proportional result, and figuring out this final seat is simply based on which of the two parties requires the seat to create a more proportional caucus.