Saturday, April 9, 2016

Manitoba Prediction: Liberals in deep trouble.

Manitoba's election is more exciting than the one over in Saskatchewan.

The short of it, for those who do not know, is as follows.

First, the NDP has formed the government for quite some time. Prior to that the province had a PC government, prior to that an NDP government, and so on. The Liberals, while present, have not been able to form a government in quite some time.

Secondly, the current NDP Premier was expected to lose the last election, but managed to squeeze out a victory that some say was fueled by news of the return of the Winnipeg Jets. The NDP has, as such, been "on the way out" for years.

Third, the current NDP Premier was challenged from within his own party, and while he managed to defeat that challenge, it has hurt him and the party, and he's not been able to recover.

Fourth and finally, just as Jack Layton boosted provincial NDP Parties in 2011, Justin Trudeau has had a similar impact on provincial Liberals. Like the earlier example, this did not turn into results, but rather, only poll numbers. The difference is that an increase in poll numbers can mean attention, and at a time when centre-left voters in Manitoba were being disgruntled with the NDP, the Liberals suddenly came into the spotlight.

There had been polls earlier in the campaign suggesting that - with just a bit more momentum - the Liberals could win. Since then we've seen them losing support.

As such, this is where I currently feel things are headed

You may wonder why such a large change over a short time. The answer is simple; information. I do not live in Manitoba, nor is Manitoba one of the "big 4" provinces (which I make an effort to keep up on) and as such, my information on Manitoba politics is limited. I've been learning more (and plan to continue learning more) and what I've learned has indicated the Liberals are doing poorly. Added to that, but separate from that, is the poll showing that this feeling is accurate.

I'll be keeping an eye on things, and make posts between now and the election on the 19th, but from what I can tell, this seems to, generally, be where things are headed.


  1. I'd keep Gerrard's seat red, that's it.

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  3. I agree Gerard wins reelection, even though he is no longer leader. He has a ton of personal vote going back for years.

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