Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Manitoba: Post Mortem - Manitoba Party

I was expecting to need to write more about this new force in Manitoba Politics. For those who don't know, the Manitoba Party is a party that's far to the fiscal right. They wanted to reduce the PST to 5%, cut income tax to a flat 10%, and other such things. This article explains how they plan to fund the government. Unfortunately, by their own math, if a doubling in tax increases revenue only 60% of what you expect, a cut will still cost you 60% of what you expect it to cost in lost revenue.

That aside, I started to look into the history of Manitoba, and I realized something; this is, in fact, not new at all. Manitoba has always had a presence (a small presence) for parties like Social Credit and Confederation of Regions. Sure there have been times where these parties have not been present, but when they have been, the pattern has been very simple and clear. As such, using the official election results, and with this in mind, I've redone my "Reform Party" map:

These are the ridings that the Manitoba Party could win if they put their mind to it. Their successes in Winnipeg were based either on local candidates, or, lack of a Liberal opponent. I should also note, the above is a fiction. The Manitoba Party is nowhere near being strong enough to win any of these ridings.

As such, the story pretty well ends here. Disappointingly. There is not much more to write. These are the ridings where alternative right-wing parties have always performed well. If I had access to 1993 Federal poll-by-poll results, I'm sure I'd have figured this out earlier.

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