Thursday, April 21, 2016

Manitoba Port-Mortem: Projection

The bad news is I was wrong in 14% of ridings

The good news is that Federally, I was wrong in 18.5% of ridings, and even the best of the best, were off by similar amounts.

While a failure rate nearing 1 in 5 is not a positive thing, it does mean that Manitoba can be added to the provinces in which I can and will do projections.

Over the next few days I will be looking at how the projection math actually handled the real polls, and digging into the actual polls to see if there are signs as to which ones were wrong in advance.

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