Italy; the how

How Italy avoids an election that, as I previously outlined, would lead to a Salvini Majority, is simple but difficult.

M5S needs to form a coalition with the Democrats. They are looking at it. Given what is at stake for M5S (the first step in it's death) it is very likely they will agree to the coalition (which, while it will not stop their death, will likely lead to a much more managed and stable decline)

The two have a majority when combined, and they likely only failed to form this coalition in 2018 due to the fact that it was the Democrats who had been defeated in that election (and thus, were 'tainted' with unpopularity; difficult for a "time for a change" party like M5S to justify propping up with a coalition)

As I said, this is likely to occur. It will result in the League re-joining their right-wing allies in the opposition, and becoming the largest opposition party. This will be a boon to the right-wing coalition.


For reference, the numbers in parliament are as follows:

216 - M5S
125 - League
111 - Democrats
104 - Berlusconi's party
33 - Nationalist (part of the right-wing alliance)
41 - Others


and possible (very rough estimate) results of an election right now:

235 - League
155 - Democrats
125 - M5S
45 - Nationalists
40 - Berlusconi
30 - Others