Update, and Nanos

A general update follows, but first, lets deal with Nanos.

They've recently shut off their polls to public access. $48 a year will get you access to all of their polls, affordable even for me, but, and here is the kicker - you are not allowed to tell anybody about what you see.

I try to be reasoned here on the blog as, through patreon, and in addition to disability payments, this is how I "make my living". This is where I "work"

Despite that, let me be utterly blunt about this. Paywalling your base poll content is taking information away from voters. You are making democracy worse. You are pushing politics, and Canada, away from a free country, by locking the information that voters may need to make an informed decision away from them.

There is significant evidence that this has been done explicitly to stop me and people like me from making election projections using these poll numbers. The objective, however, is not to hurt me. It is to hurt you. You, my reader. The objective is to keep this information from you. It is to stop you from knowing about this. To stop you from hearing what I think about it. To stop you from learning.

I don't take kindly to such attacks on my readers, even if there are only a few dozen of you, you are my readers and it is my duty to protect you from such nonsense to the best of my ability.

For this, and other reasons I've previously discussed, I am not going to be doing a projection for this federal election. Nanos now joins Ipsos in its attack on people looking for election projections. With the canadian polling industry as small as it is, we are reaching a tipping point where, if not in the next election then surely before the one after that, these issues will 'explode'

I am going to continue to use my 100% no-math approach to making projections until that happens and we get a final ruling (from a real judge) on these issues; and the polling companies and projectionists settle into whatever the new reality happens to be. At that point and only at that point will I re-examine using mathematical projections. As such, the most recent Alberta election will remain my last projection using said math, and given how wrong it was, this is no tragedy.

now

on to other news

In Israel, Kulanu, as I thought may happen, fully merged into Likud; Kulanu thus no longer exists.

Austrian polls have stabilized around: OVP 37 // SPO 22 // FPO 19 // GRN 11 // NEOS 8

Manitoba, which has not had a poll in over a month, still looks set to re-elect the Tories.

Despite a coming October election, I still don't cover NWT elections on the grounds that I focus on traditional partisan parliamentary systems and NWT is not one of those.

Portugal has seen polls move this summer but the left parties still maintain a solid lead.

Swiss elections in October are likely to not change much.

Polish elections in November likely won't change much of significance either.

And Canadian elections will probably result in a minority of some sort.