Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Lebanon Election "Results"

It is still difficult to find precise results, but I will share what I have been able to find.

28 - FPM/Libnan al-Kawi (P) Christian - Nationalist
21 - Future Movement (A) Sunni - Moderate
16 - Amal Movement (P) Shia - Conservative
14 - Lebanese Forces (A) Christian - Christian Democrat
13 - Hezbollah (P) Shia - Nationalist
9 - Progressive Socialist (A) Secular - Socialist
4 - Al-Azem/Glory (P) Secular - Centrist
3 - Syrian Social Nationalist Party (P) Secular - Nationalist
3 - Tashnaq (P) Armenian - Socialist
3 - Kateb (A) Christian - Hard Right
3 - Marada (P) Christian - Right Wing
2 - National Alliance (A) Secular - Moderate
1 - Al-Ahbash (P) Sunni - Islamic
1 - PNO / Nasserist (P) Sunni - Nasserism
1 - Union Party (P) Christian? - Nasserism
1 - National Dialogue Party (A) Secular - Capitalist
1 - Lebanese Democratic Party (P) Druze - Conservative
1 - Independence Movement (A) Christian - Conservative


74 - Pro-Syria, 'Anti-west', 'Pro-Shia', "Hezbollah Allies"
51 - Anti-Syria, 'Pro-west', 'Pro-Sunni', "Hariri Allies"

46 - Nationalists
39 - Conservatives
36 - Others

Shia united strongly
Sunni mostly united, only a few seats voted the "other way"
Christians swung heavily towards Hezbollah allies

The momentum/power is with the FPM, Amal Movement, Hezbollah, and Lebanese Forces. 

A good election for President Aoun.

Hariri has been weakened, but will likely remain Prime Minister, as, the PM needs to be Sunni, and he still took the overwhelming share of the Sunni vote (21 of 27 seats)

Nabih Berri is likely to remain the Speaker of Parliament, a position that must be held by a Shiite. Together with Hezbollah, his Amal Movement took 30 of the 27 Shia seats; as, clearly, non-Shia voters voted for his party. 


With all the various parties and alliances it is as of yet unclear exactly how things will play out. When more concrete details are available, I will update the situation.




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