I celebrated by 34th birthday yesterday (the 19th) so I did not finish that 1995 blogpost; but it will be done by monday at the latest.
Just wanted to share some quick thoughts on the provinces, and share something I said to some friends in a discord chat.
I gave some basic guidelines on which provinces I follow politically and why. These are the guidelines.
Don't follow politics in provinces
A - not your own, or
B - does not have an election, or a potential election, in the next 365 days, or
C - has not just undergone a major change such as a party merger, premier or opposition leader change, or, for example, suddenly dismisses its clerk and serjeant-at-arms.
As such, I am not following politics in Nova Scotia whatsoever. I only know the NS NDP leader because I opened the wikipedia page to double check when the next election there is; its 2021.
Ontario has recently had an election, but I live here. Quebec also recently had one; but there is also speculation about some kind of merger of the PQ and QS; plus the PLQ is going to have to pick a new leader, so I'm sort of keeping an eye on things over there.
The Yukon will not have an election in 2019 likely, and will likely go in 2020 or 2021.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan both are scheduled to vote in 2020.
New Brunswick recently held an election but the result was a minority government. As such they could have an election at any time. Polls suggest the Greens are up since the election.
So who IS having an election this year for sure?
ALBERTA:
May 31st is the latest date for an Alberta election; but it could happen as early as March 1st. Wisely, the law for the fixed election date gives some flexibility as to adapt to changing situations such as holidays.
Polls continue to have the UCP in the lead; but the polling trend over the term has seen the NDP rebounding. In the end it's going to come down to what Calgary does as the more rural areas seem more strongly opposed to a lot of what the NDP is up to. The Alberta Party may also play a role in who wins by taking votes away from the stronger party; the NDP in Edmonton, and the Tories in rural areas.
In the end I don't think the NDP will be able to catch up to the UCP in Calgary, but the Alberta Party could well play enough of a spoiler to ensure a minority government; if that happens it is possible that the NDP could form a coalition government with the Alberta Party, or at least, secure some kind of deal from them that would allow them to continue governing.
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND:
On October 7th, PEI goes to the polls. The PC Party will still need to find a new leader between now and then but the big problem is the massive shift in PEI politics.
At one time, the two parties had very similar policies and were thought of as "Team Red" and "Team Blue" with the Liberals frequently having the more right-wing platform. While the two parties still present very moderate platforms, what seems to have changed is that a lot of PEIslanders are fed up with the old two party system. Beyond that, they seem to trust the Greens to be the new "team" in this equation. The Greens have lead 3 of the 4 most recent polls, and have been ahead of the tories in 9 of the past 11 polls. It may simply be that enough Islanders will switch to the Greens to oppose the Liberals that the PC Party wont be able to retake their traditional spot as the go-to "not liberal" party.
If this happens a Green government, especially a minority, is certainly possible. PEI has never had such a minority government before and it would be interesting to see how the Greens would navigate such a system; the internal party culture would likely mean they'd deal with it rather well and this could then lead to a Green party Majority government in that province in an election that happens a year or two later.
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR:
The very next day on October 8th, NL goes to the polls. This will be an interesting election to watch largely based on who the PC leader is.
Ches Crosby is the son of John and grandson of Chesley; his namesake. Chesley was a huge personality in the convention that lead to the two Referendums to join Newfoundland to Canada; in which he very heavily pushed for union with the United States. John was the finance minister under Joe Clark and was a key architect of the NAFTA while a cabinet minister to Brian Mulroney. It remains to be seen if Ches can fill the mukluks left behind by his father and grandfather. If so, he could well win this election.
After the election in 2015, the government had perhaps the worst first few months of any new government, making gigantic cuts to the budget, and dropping from the 57% of the vote they took in the election to 37% in the first post-election poll; 27% in a poll the following month. Since then they managed to rise again, dipping only during May of this year, days after Ches Crosbie election as leader of the PC Party. Crosbie won his seat in October and although the margin has opened back up to 10 points with the Liberals ahead; the PC Party could still win the election.
TO WATCH:
British Columbia's referendum on electoral reform will be interesting to watch.
The Northwest Territories also votes in October (or November?) but for the same reason I don't follow Presidential systems as closely as I do Parliamentary systems - personality vs political parties - I do not really follow politics here.
Thursday, December 20, 2018
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Personal: A quick note on how close I am to losing the internet
When my computer died it was only my windows vista single core laptop that kept me online.
Last night I spilled some water on my desk. It spilled off on to the floor, and on to the router between my desk and the floor below. The internet stopped working.
This morning in a bit of a christmas miracle I was able to get the router working again, but my VOIP phone is not working. I need to try to restart the router again.
The problem is after the water damage, it might not want to restart; but I do need a working telephone.
I have a friend who donated to help get me my new computer who became homeless after family trouble. He was able to stay with a friend.
Another donor lost her job suddenly, and had to get by on credit cards for a month or two while finding a new job.
Another donor in this streak of bad luck crashed his car, totalling it, and had to get a new one with the help of his parents.
My parents dont have the kind of money needed to help me get more than the basics. I don't have any friends in town, in part due to my autism and the impact it has on my social skills. I don't have a credit card in large part due to what happened after I got sick (depression) and had to take months off work.
I don't have the backup resources that even you might if something goes wrong. If the router will not restart when I reset it in a few minutes, I will have no internet, and will only be able to access it from the library, for a maximum of one hour a day.
My father who lives nearby has no internet at home. If my apartment were to burn down I'd also thus lose my internet. The same if ODSP changes mean I can no longer afford rent.
I have no cell phone. I have no backups. I have no alternatives. If the router breaks, I wont have internet. Beyond that since these are teksavvy routers, its likely I wont have internet for weeks while they mail me a new one (that I need to somehow find money for) during the xmas holidays.
Even if that happened, I could still finish that 1995 post, from the library; at least, I should be able to. More and more places are requiring 2-factor authorization which requires a cell phone. Thus if I cant update it, it will autopost on the 31st, only half finished.
The TLDR of this is simply that things beyond my control may mean I suddenly vanish from the internet. I'm writing this because if that happens; either now with this router or later via some other calamity, that I will start working on day 1 to get back online, but that this might not be possible for days, weeks, or even months. I want you to know that I've not abandoned this blog, nor have I abandoned any online communities I am in, nor have I abandoned my twitter. If I suddenly vanish, I will be back. The only reason I wouldn't be is if my poor health decisions finally catch up with me; and in that case, I will be asking people to try to get the word out that this has happened. As such, you may need to search for someone tweeting at me to let my followers know what's happened.
Last night I spilled some water on my desk. It spilled off on to the floor, and on to the router between my desk and the floor below. The internet stopped working.
This morning in a bit of a christmas miracle I was able to get the router working again, but my VOIP phone is not working. I need to try to restart the router again.
The problem is after the water damage, it might not want to restart; but I do need a working telephone.
I have a friend who donated to help get me my new computer who became homeless after family trouble. He was able to stay with a friend.
Another donor lost her job suddenly, and had to get by on credit cards for a month or two while finding a new job.
Another donor in this streak of bad luck crashed his car, totalling it, and had to get a new one with the help of his parents.
My parents dont have the kind of money needed to help me get more than the basics. I don't have any friends in town, in part due to my autism and the impact it has on my social skills. I don't have a credit card in large part due to what happened after I got sick (depression) and had to take months off work.
I don't have the backup resources that even you might if something goes wrong. If the router will not restart when I reset it in a few minutes, I will have no internet, and will only be able to access it from the library, for a maximum of one hour a day.
My father who lives nearby has no internet at home. If my apartment were to burn down I'd also thus lose my internet. The same if ODSP changes mean I can no longer afford rent.
I have no cell phone. I have no backups. I have no alternatives. If the router breaks, I wont have internet. Beyond that since these are teksavvy routers, its likely I wont have internet for weeks while they mail me a new one (that I need to somehow find money for) during the xmas holidays.
Even if that happened, I could still finish that 1995 post, from the library; at least, I should be able to. More and more places are requiring 2-factor authorization which requires a cell phone. Thus if I cant update it, it will autopost on the 31st, only half finished.
The TLDR of this is simply that things beyond my control may mean I suddenly vanish from the internet. I'm writing this because if that happens; either now with this router or later via some other calamity, that I will start working on day 1 to get back online, but that this might not be possible for days, weeks, or even months. I want you to know that I've not abandoned this blog, nor have I abandoned any online communities I am in, nor have I abandoned my twitter. If I suddenly vanish, I will be back. The only reason I wouldn't be is if my poor health decisions finally catch up with me; and in that case, I will be asking people to try to get the word out that this has happened. As such, you may need to search for someone tweeting at me to let my followers know what's happened.
Monday, December 17, 2018
CMHoC election
More about CMHoC from this blog:
https://teddyonpolitics.blogspot.com/2017/10/cmhoc-9th-election.html
https://teddyonpolitics.blogspot.com/2017/07/results-of-fictional-election.html
Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Sweden may face new elections
Earlier today, the right-wing parties in Sweden managed to pass a budget. Sweden still does not have a new government however, but developments in the past few days have made it unlikely that any grouping can manage to form a government. The Social Democrats and Centre parties are pointing the finger at one another, and the traditional 4 party right-wing coalition is starting to slowly fall apart. The most likely outcome beyond an election is a Conservative lead government backed by the Neo-Nationalists, but the Conservatives are still saying they refuse to work with the Neo-Nationalists.
As such, Sweden may be headed back to the polls sooner before later.
Current polls suggest the Moderate Party (Conservatives) and their close allies the Christian Democrats are down, as well as the Liberals. Other parties are near their election level of support while the Sweden Democrats are up by 2 to 3 points. Such a result would not change the coalition math, and, instead, strengthen the position of the Sweden Democrats (Neo-Nationalist) handing them a potential second place finish. It may, however, convince some of the other right-wing parties to be more willing to bend to the demands of the Social Democrats.
What could change the math is if either the Liberals or the Greens fail to reach the 4% threshold, which some polls suggest is possible. the November 1-7 Sentio poll has both under the threshold. A single poll projection would see the Social Democrats take 108 seats, the Neo-Nationalists take 78, the Conservatives take 71, both the Centre and Left parties take 36, and the Christian Democrats take 20. 144-127-78 would be the new coalition math based on those numbers. If either the Greens or Liberals did pass the threshold, it would give them roughly 15 or more seats, and 15 is not enough to take either alliance over the top and bring them to 175 for a majority.
In short; the impasse will continue, past any election, until one of three things happen.
1 - A coalition between parties not traditionally allied occurs.
2 - A party announces its willing to work with the Sweden Democrats.
3 - The agreement from after the last election is continued; which would see a minority government permitted.
Given the current balance is 144-143-62, it is far more likely for option 3 to occur after an election where one side loses more seats than the other.
My personal expectation is that there's still a chance for a coalition, but that we will have no idea what until the moment as it will depend on exactly when the Social Democrats in particular 'break' and offer compromise, and who happens to be offering that compromise to them at that time. Failing that, the Social Democrats will "win" the next election and option 3 as suggested above will be brought back.
Regardless, refusing to work with the Sweden Democrats can not continue in the long term (IE 20 years from now) so long as they maintain these levels of support, and shutting them out will only see their popularity continue to grow. It is my expectation that the right-wing will eventually agree to work with them, but, likely not until 2022 at the earliest.
On a side note, my alternate history post about 1995 is still half finished. I've been busy with the CMHoC election recently, and this may delay that post slightly.
As such, Sweden may be headed back to the polls sooner before later.
Current polls suggest the Moderate Party (Conservatives) and their close allies the Christian Democrats are down, as well as the Liberals. Other parties are near their election level of support while the Sweden Democrats are up by 2 to 3 points. Such a result would not change the coalition math, and, instead, strengthen the position of the Sweden Democrats (Neo-Nationalist) handing them a potential second place finish. It may, however, convince some of the other right-wing parties to be more willing to bend to the demands of the Social Democrats.
What could change the math is if either the Liberals or the Greens fail to reach the 4% threshold, which some polls suggest is possible. the November 1-7 Sentio poll has both under the threshold. A single poll projection would see the Social Democrats take 108 seats, the Neo-Nationalists take 78, the Conservatives take 71, both the Centre and Left parties take 36, and the Christian Democrats take 20. 144-127-78 would be the new coalition math based on those numbers. If either the Greens or Liberals did pass the threshold, it would give them roughly 15 or more seats, and 15 is not enough to take either alliance over the top and bring them to 175 for a majority.
In short; the impasse will continue, past any election, until one of three things happen.
1 - A coalition between parties not traditionally allied occurs.
2 - A party announces its willing to work with the Sweden Democrats.
3 - The agreement from after the last election is continued; which would see a minority government permitted.
Given the current balance is 144-143-62, it is far more likely for option 3 to occur after an election where one side loses more seats than the other.
My personal expectation is that there's still a chance for a coalition, but that we will have no idea what until the moment as it will depend on exactly when the Social Democrats in particular 'break' and offer compromise, and who happens to be offering that compromise to them at that time. Failing that, the Social Democrats will "win" the next election and option 3 as suggested above will be brought back.
Regardless, refusing to work with the Sweden Democrats can not continue in the long term (IE 20 years from now) so long as they maintain these levels of support, and shutting them out will only see their popularity continue to grow. It is my expectation that the right-wing will eventually agree to work with them, but, likely not until 2022 at the earliest.
On a side note, my alternate history post about 1995 is still half finished. I've been busy with the CMHoC election recently, and this may delay that post slightly.
Monday, December 10, 2018
Greyhound, what next?
In this previous post I examine what will happen now that Greyhound has decided to shut down operations in Western Canada.
In it, I made a number of predictions.
As we've passed the shut down and near the end of the year I'd like to look at how well (or poorly) I did. Lets go through this point by point.
No new rail service has been announced.
Nobody is buying the entire Greyhound network in the area as happened in the Maritimes.
Alberta company, myEbus has started a service between Vancouver and Kelowna, that continues on to Kamloops. Ebus says sales are slow and need to pick up if the route is to be maintained.
Alberta company Red Arrow, mentioned on my earlier post, is picking up the route from Edmonton to Grand Prairie. Despite my expectations, they are not expanding outside of Alberta much.
BC Bus North, a public company, will, for the time being, run routes in Northern BC, with a hub out of Prince George.
I can't find any information on connections from Vancouver to Prince George, beyond that a company based out of Merritt is trying to set up a route. What I'm reading leads me to believe there is a company already providing this service but I can not seem to find out who.
A first-nations owned company will be running buses from Thompson to Winnipeg.
Kaspar offers a service from Thunder Bay to Winnipeg, and Thunder Bay to White River, connecting that portion of the network.
The backbone of the network however will be taken over by Rider Express, the small Saskatchewan company. They will be running buses from Vancouver to Winnipeg. They are also opening a route connecting Edmonton to Winnipeg via Saskatoon.
In the end, the large majority of routes I outlined as "expected to be replaced" have been replaced; and a large number of other private services also exist that go into communities that I did not expect to retain service.
A nation-wide bus trip will not be easy however. My understanding is between Winnipeg and White River you may have to transfer as many as 4 times total. This makes the train a much more attractive option for those wishing to travel between Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal and Winnipeg.
Also take note that I'm working on a long blogpost, alternate history, about a "yes" side victory in the 1995 referendum. It's about half written, and will rank among the longer posts I've made for this blog.
In it, I made a number of predictions.
As we've passed the shut down and near the end of the year I'd like to look at how well (or poorly) I did. Lets go through this point by point.
No new rail service has been announced.
Nobody is buying the entire Greyhound network in the area as happened in the Maritimes.
Alberta company, myEbus has started a service between Vancouver and Kelowna, that continues on to Kamloops. Ebus says sales are slow and need to pick up if the route is to be maintained.
Alberta company Red Arrow, mentioned on my earlier post, is picking up the route from Edmonton to Grand Prairie. Despite my expectations, they are not expanding outside of Alberta much.
BC Bus North, a public company, will, for the time being, run routes in Northern BC, with a hub out of Prince George.
I can't find any information on connections from Vancouver to Prince George, beyond that a company based out of Merritt is trying to set up a route. What I'm reading leads me to believe there is a company already providing this service but I can not seem to find out who.
A first-nations owned company will be running buses from Thompson to Winnipeg.
Kaspar offers a service from Thunder Bay to Winnipeg, and Thunder Bay to White River, connecting that portion of the network.
The backbone of the network however will be taken over by Rider Express, the small Saskatchewan company. They will be running buses from Vancouver to Winnipeg. They are also opening a route connecting Edmonton to Winnipeg via Saskatoon.
In the end, the large majority of routes I outlined as "expected to be replaced" have been replaced; and a large number of other private services also exist that go into communities that I did not expect to retain service.
A nation-wide bus trip will not be easy however. My understanding is between Winnipeg and White River you may have to transfer as many as 4 times total. This makes the train a much more attractive option for those wishing to travel between Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal and Winnipeg.
Also take note that I'm working on a long blogpost, alternate history, about a "yes" side victory in the 1995 referendum. It's about half written, and will rank among the longer posts I've made for this blog.
Monday, December 3, 2018
New party in Spain
Spain has a new political party of sorts.
It's actually an "old" party that was founded 5 years ago; Vox. Many call the party far-right, and others say it is right-populist; so that puts it in line with people like Donald Trump, Mario Salvini, Marine Le Pen, Nigel Farage, and Viktor Orban. This is known to some as Neo-nationalism, which is likely the term I will stick to when discussing such parties.
I'll keep this short.
Yesterday, elections were held in Andalusia, a large region of Spain. This region is known for being left-wing. The Socialists held a majority from the reintroduction of democracy in Spain to the 1994 election, where they were 10 seats short; but still managed to take government and win a plurality. In 1996 they managed to win additional seats, being only 3 short; this time managing a deal with a left-wing opposition party, with the 2000 election being more of the same. In 2004, the Socialists won a majority again, and held it in 2008. 2012 saw the Conservatives win a plurality of the vote; but the united-left party form a coalition with the Socialists to keep them in government. 2015 would see the Socialists win a plurality, with the Liberals supporting them.
The TL;DR is that this is a left-wing region, known for not being friendly to far-right parties.
And yet; Vox managed 11% here, beating most polls, which had them closer to 6%. 55 seats are needed for a majority; the election resulted in the following:
33 - Socialist (PSOE)
26 - Conservative (PP)
21 - Liberal (Cs)
17 - Left (AA)
12 - Neo-nationalist (Vox)
The only two-party coalition that has a majority is a grand coalition, and that is extraordinarily unlikely. PSOE wants a coalition of the left; them with AA and Cs, while PP wants a coalition of the right; them with Cs, and Vox. Cs is not keen on working with Vox and has proposed a centrist coalition of Cs, PP, and PSOE, with them in the lead.
Why this is important is how well Vox did, and how their votes seem to have come from the Left. Polls had Vox 5 points below what they eventually took in the election; while PSOE was polling 5 points above. Cs, PP, and AA all had results in line with polling.
Using the ratio method; this meant that 15% of the PSOE vote went to Vox. Applying this nationally, it would peg Vox somewhere around 10%, and push PSOE into second. The attention drawn by this "win" for Vox will also likely boost their poll numbers; likely drawing votes from the right and impacting the PP numbers; this could push Cs into first.
Interestingly, it puts things in spain in a new light. Formerly there were two "old" parties and two "new" parties. PSOE and PP were old, while Cs and Podemos (which is allied with AA) were new. Both of the new parties were to the left of an old party. Now, with Vox, there is a new party to the right of PP, and voters may feel comfortable parking their vote there.
Where this goes remains to be seen. I'll keep an eye on nation wide polling in Spain for the next month or so and let you all know where things stand once Vox's poll numbers start to stabilize after their expected jump.
It's actually an "old" party that was founded 5 years ago; Vox. Many call the party far-right, and others say it is right-populist; so that puts it in line with people like Donald Trump, Mario Salvini, Marine Le Pen, Nigel Farage, and Viktor Orban. This is known to some as Neo-nationalism, which is likely the term I will stick to when discussing such parties.
I'll keep this short.
Yesterday, elections were held in Andalusia, a large region of Spain. This region is known for being left-wing. The Socialists held a majority from the reintroduction of democracy in Spain to the 1994 election, where they were 10 seats short; but still managed to take government and win a plurality. In 1996 they managed to win additional seats, being only 3 short; this time managing a deal with a left-wing opposition party, with the 2000 election being more of the same. In 2004, the Socialists won a majority again, and held it in 2008. 2012 saw the Conservatives win a plurality of the vote; but the united-left party form a coalition with the Socialists to keep them in government. 2015 would see the Socialists win a plurality, with the Liberals supporting them.
The TL;DR is that this is a left-wing region, known for not being friendly to far-right parties.
And yet; Vox managed 11% here, beating most polls, which had them closer to 6%. 55 seats are needed for a majority; the election resulted in the following:
33 - Socialist (PSOE)
26 - Conservative (PP)
21 - Liberal (Cs)
17 - Left (AA)
12 - Neo-nationalist (Vox)
The only two-party coalition that has a majority is a grand coalition, and that is extraordinarily unlikely. PSOE wants a coalition of the left; them with AA and Cs, while PP wants a coalition of the right; them with Cs, and Vox. Cs is not keen on working with Vox and has proposed a centrist coalition of Cs, PP, and PSOE, with them in the lead.
Why this is important is how well Vox did, and how their votes seem to have come from the Left. Polls had Vox 5 points below what they eventually took in the election; while PSOE was polling 5 points above. Cs, PP, and AA all had results in line with polling.
Using the ratio method; this meant that 15% of the PSOE vote went to Vox. Applying this nationally, it would peg Vox somewhere around 10%, and push PSOE into second. The attention drawn by this "win" for Vox will also likely boost their poll numbers; likely drawing votes from the right and impacting the PP numbers; this could push Cs into first.
Interestingly, it puts things in spain in a new light. Formerly there were two "old" parties and two "new" parties. PSOE and PP were old, while Cs and Podemos (which is allied with AA) were new. Both of the new parties were to the left of an old party. Now, with Vox, there is a new party to the right of PP, and voters may feel comfortable parking their vote there.
Where this goes remains to be seen. I'll keep an eye on nation wide polling in Spain for the next month or so and let you all know where things stand once Vox's poll numbers start to stabilize after their expected jump.
Sunday, December 2, 2018
Follow my twitter for additional content
I made a tweet today that you may find interesting. I will often tweet various things I do that are not big enough for the blog. If you want some additional content, following my twitter is a good way to get it.
If you are picky about who you follow on twitter (I am) then I simply recommend bookmarking the account and checking in on it every so often.
If you are picky about who you follow on twitter (I am) then I simply recommend bookmarking the account and checking in on it every so often.
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