Polish election

Tomorrow, Poland goes to the polls. I want to share my current projection, and I want to give some simple background to help the results, when they come, to be understood.

The 2015 election resulted in the following:

235 - PiS - Law and Justice - Hard Conservative
138 - PO - Civic Platform - Moderate, Liberal, Christian Democrat
42 - K'15 - Kukiz - Populist Right
28 - N. - Modern - Centrist
16 - PSL - Peoples Party - Rural Conservative
0 - ZL - United Left - Left Coalition
0 - KORWiN - Liberty - Right Libertarian
1 - MN - Minority - German


This election, most parties are running in coalitions. Putting the seats won last-election into said electoral coalitions, and you get the following:

235 - ZP - United Right - Hard Conservative (PiS)
166 - KO - Civic Coalition - Moderate Liberal (PO, N.)
58 - KP - Polish Coalition - Rural Conservative (PSL, K'15)
0 - Lweica - The Left - Left Coalition (ZL)
0 - Wolnosc - Confederation - Right Libertarian (KORWiN)
1 - MN - Minority - German

Coalitions require a higher vote (8% vs 5%) to pass the threshold.

Thus leads us to the current election.

This projection has been calculated simply using polls and and adjustment factor to account for the electoral system.

264 - ZP (+29)
138 - KO (-35)
64 - Lweica (+64)
0 - KP (-58) [polling at 7.5%)
0 - Wolnosc (+-0) [polling at 5%]
1 - MN (+-0)

KP will likely not make the threshold, however, should they manage, the results could look as follows:

247 - ZP (+12)
122 - KO (-44)
60 - Lweica (+60)
30 - KP (-28)
1 - MN (+-0)

Regardless, PiS, the current majority government, is expected to win a majority government.