PiS appears to have won with a narrow majority after the Confederation manages to meet the threshold for a party at 5%. Media projections, by TVN24 in particular, are as follows:
239 - PiS
130 - KO
43 - Left
34 - PSL
13 - Confederation
1 - Minority
PiS is thus ahead of the 231 they need for a majority, but behind the 307 they need to amend the constitution.
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