Update - Change in Spain, Israel, and more

Japan: the old Democratic Party has managed to snatch up another upper house member, breaking the tie with the CDP for second place in that chamber. Elections are coming up in July for that chamber where, unless the polls are very wrong, the CDP will solidify a second place.

Italy: M5S seems to be rushing to meet PD in the polls with a recent Noto poll on March 5th suggested only a single point separates them.

Ukraine: No new polls yet; but some minor Presidential candidates have dropped to endorsed various others. The top three seem to continue to be Poroshenko the incumbent, Zelensky, who wants to negotiate directly with Russia to end the donbass situation, and Tymoshenko, who wants Ukraine to join NATO and the EU. Boyko is 4th in most polls, and is famous for being called a russian puppet, and for physically assaulting someone after being called a russian puppet. Boyko's polling makes it unlikely he would be in any runoff between the final two. The election takes place at the end of this month. I will be posting more about it before then.

South Africa: Polling does suggest EFF is going to do better in the next election; but also suggests DA is going to retain its second spot.

and in the big two

Spain: Vox has been polling better and better while Podemos has been falling in the polls; it is now to the point that Vox is overtaking Podemos in some polls. With Podemos falling, they no longer are expected to win enough seats to push PSOE over the edge into a majority; however Vox, even when combined with C's and PP, also do not have a majority, keeping both the obvious left and obvious right alliances outside of majority territory. That being said, a grand coalition of PSOE and PP would have a majority easily.

Israel: Yisrael Beiteinu has fallen too far below the threshold too often to be considered by me a "party that will win seats". As such I am projecting them to take 0 seats from this election. On the flip side, Zehut, the Libertarian Party, has been inching towards the threshold and has even managed to pass it in a TNS/Kan poll. I'm still not counting them among the seat winners, but if trends continue, I may have to.

Projection thus updated to:

35 - Blue & White
30 - Likud
9 - Arab Opposition
7 - Labour
7 - UTJ
6 - Union
6 - Right

6 - Meretz
5 - Shas
5 - Kulanu
4 - Arab List