This is based largely on riding math; but, there are some important caveats.
This shows, basically, the largest number of ridings that can be won by the Alberta Party. These 5 ridings have "interesting" candidates in them, and, if the party wins 5 seats, it will be these 5. Beyond that, at this time, I can't see any way the Alberta Party wins 6 or more seats.
As such I've simply decided that these 8 seats will be won by their smaller parties without using any polling data.
Beyond that, I've also simply decided the UCP wins 45 seats, as this is a "narrow majority". One to be the speaker, and 44 other members, compared to 42 for the opposition. As such the NDP needs 34.
This is not based on any polling math. It's simply what a "Narrow UCP" majority looks like where the "Smaller parties do well".
Regardless, as a possible outcome - that the UCP could win a narrow majority - I wanted to share this.
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