Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Endorsement Map - Conservative Party Leadership

It is presumed that MPs are endorsing themselves. Note as well, since neither area elected any Conservative MPs, the Atlantic and Montreal are not on these maps. Grey seats are those not represented by a sitting Conservative MP.

The choice of colours was mostly random, so don't read anything in to that.

I've also doubled up on colours for those candidates who only have endorsements in a single province.

What I find interesting is how O'Toole has endorsements in many vulnerable ridings. Scheer meanwhile has endorsements from areas that traditionally had a strong Reform/Alliance base. This is not true in every case; Sarnia was never a hotbed of Reform support, nor is Banff likely to be lost in the next election, but in general, that is the trend.

This suggests to me that Scheer is "the right-wing candidate" while O'Toole is "the moderate" and that when it comes time to count 2nd round ballots, and so on, that it could turn into a Right vs Moderate battle with these two candidates going into the final round.

Alternatively, should one or both of them be knocked off prior to this, it could be indicative of where their supporters will go; to other moderates like Raitt and Chong, or to other right-wingers like Bernier and Leitch.

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