Monday, September 12, 2016

US Election: "Week 1"

We are a week out from the unofficial start of the election, and not much has changed in terms of events. Oh sure there were minor news stories, but in terms of real game-changers, nothing. Trump has had a bit of momentum, but his momentum seems unfocused, and as such, unable to swing too many states.

There is not much to say specifically about this update, but I want to make something clear about the "odds".

Trump can win this election.
The Republican nominee, no matter who it was, could always have won the election. It was always a possibility. It was, and remains, "possible enough" to make it something that could really happen.

It was the nomination Trump couldn't win. The odds of Trump winning the nomination was below the point of worrying about.

Of course we know from reality that Trump did, in fact, beat the odds and won the nomination. Some people think that means he'll also win the election, as that's more likely, but I'd question when was the last time you rolled two yahtzees in a row?

At this time, Clinton has a large lead where it matters, leading 307 to 231. Even if Florida swung it would only bring things to 276 to 262, still a Clinton victory. Virginia is getting more solidly Democratic, and even North Carolina is more likely to vote Democrat than Ohio.

Still, it remains an open race, and we'll have to see exactly who wins. The only real "news" is that Gary Johnson has failed to break through. It's all but certain he will fail to make the debates, and will likely continue to bleed more support. I'll be talking more about Johnson next week.

No comments:

Post a Comment