Saturday, September 3, 2016

Urban PR, what that might look like

You may have noticed some errors with the last set of maps, as such, I've done updated maps, and these maps include what I see as likely PR/STV districts.

As eluded to in the description, I expect these would be STV, like Ireland, Australia's Senate, or the previous "BC-STV" proposal.

You'll note that for Montreal and Toronto, the colours indicate the multi-member ridings, while for the other maps, those multi-member ridings are shown in grayscale. Most provinces have both rural (single member) ridings and urban (multi member) ridings. Newfoundland and New Brunswick have no such 'urban' ridings, and Prince Edward Island has no such 'rural' ridings.

Nova Scotia and Manitoba both have a single "urban" riding, containing the capital. Saskatchewan has two, one for each large city. Alberta has 4 such ridings, two for each large city, while BC has 5, 4 in the greater Vancouver area, and one on part of Vancouver Island.

Quebec has 8 such ridings, none of which contain under 4 members, while Ontario has a whopping 16 urban ridings. All of these ridings in all of these provinces have between 3 and 9 members, trying to aim for 5 as a good balance. This is what's recommended for STV.

I'd like to examine how this would impact the last federal election. I'm going to make the presumption that rural ridings will be FPTP (though as I'll make clear in my next post, this isn't likely, but it is easier to calculate) and as opposed to straight out STV, I will presume the urban ridings use d'hondt PR, as that's easier to calculate as well. I will then compare this to both straight FPTP (IE the real results) and straight PR (IE nation-wide d'hondt) to show what this means.

Lets start at sunrise, in Newfoundland. Without any "urban" ridings, nothing changes. In Nova Scotia we have 4 ridings rolled into one. As such we lose 4 Liberal MPs to be replaced by the proportional results, which are 4 Liberals, and 1 New Democrat. This moves us on to PEI, which has a single province-wide riding. The 4 Liberal MPs are replaced with 3 Liberal MPs and a Tory MP.

As a result, in the Atlantic, we go from 32 Liberals to, to 30 Liberals, 1 Tory, and 1 New Democrat. The Atlantic, however, is not known for it's large urban areas, so, we'll hop over to the Prairies. Manitoba loses all 7 Liberal MPs and 1 NDP MP in Winnipeg, which is replaced with, 5 Liberals, 1 NDP MP, and 2 Tories.

In Saskatchewan we have two ridings. In Saskatoon, we replace 1 Tory MP with a Liberal (the other Tory, and New Democrat remain). In Regina the current balance would not change.

As a subtotal, we are currently down by 3 Liberals, and up by 2 Tories and 1 New Democrat. However, we've yet to hit urban areas that are both large and solidly for one party or another. As such, you can expect more change as we go.

In Alberta we have 4 multi-member ridings. South Calgary we exchange 1 Tory for a Liberal, and we do the same for the rest of Calgary, which gains 1 Liberal at the expense of a Tory. South Edmonton produces the same result, 1 additional Liberal at the expense of a Tory, while North Edmonton shakes things up by gaining us not only 1 Liberal, but also 1 New Democrat, both at the expense of Tories. As such Alberta produces 4 additional Liberals, and 1 additional New Democrat, whole losing 5 Tories, for a new subtotal of +1 Liberals, +2 New Democrats, and -3 Tories.

In BC we have a number of multi-member ridings. In the Capital Region, the Liberals gain 1 seat from the NDP. The sprawling north-shore coquitlam area would gain 2 Tories at the expense of the Liberals, white it's southern counterpart in the surrey-abbotsford area would gain 1 New Democrat from the Liberals. The Richmond-Delta-Burnaby area would gain 1 Tory at the expense of the New Democrats. Lastly Vancouver, which gains us a Tory at the expense of the Liberals, for a new subtotal of -2 Liberals, +1 New Democrats, and +1 Tories.

In Quebec City, we have the NDP gain 1 from the Tories. Our first big change comes from Laval, where the Liberals would lose a whopping 3 seats, one each to the NDP, Tories, and Bloc. The North Shore would also see huge changes. The Liberals would retain their seats, but the Bloc would lose 2 to the NDP, and 1 to the Tories. In the northern Monteregie area, the only change is 1 Bloc gain from the Liberals. This compares to the northern Monteregie area, where both the NDP and Bloc gain 1 from the Liberals. This brings us to a new subtotal of -8 Liberals, +6 New Democrats, +2 Tories, and +-0 Bloc

The Island of Montreal is large. The northern riding sees the Bloc and NDP gain 1 seat each from the Liberals. The Eastern riding sees the Bloc gain 1 from the NDP. The Western riding sees the Tories gain 1 from the Liberals. This brings us to a new subtotal of -11 Liberals, +6 New Democrats, +3 Tories, and +2 Bloc

In Ontario we have a large number of such ridings. Windsor sees the Liberals and Tories each gain 1 from the NDP. London gains 1 Tory from a Liberal, and Simcoe would gain 2 Liberals from 2 Tories. However Simcoe highlights a problem, as the NDP almost just wins a seat here, but on the math I'm using, just barely does not. Ottawa would see a gain of 1 each (NDP and Tory) from the Liberals. Durham would see 1 NDP gain from the Liberals, and they would do the same in the Niagara region. Both the Waterloo and Halton regions would see 1 NDP gain from the Liberals as well, while Hamilton sees no changes. Brampton sees 1 gain each, Mississauga sees 2 Tories and 1 NDP gained, all from Liberals. This brings us to a new subtotal of -20 Liberals, +11 New Democrats, +7 Tories, and +2 Bloc

The York Region and Toronto are all that's left. In the former we see a change with the NDP gaining 1, and the Tories gaining 2 from the Liberals. This leaves only Toronto, where the Liberals hold all the seats, and all gains will be from them. Etobicoke would see the Tories gain 1, while Scarborough sees 1 NDP gain, and 2 Tories. North York has 3 Tory gains, while the rest of Toronto has 3 New Democrat gains, and finally, a Tory gain. This brings us to a new subtotal of -35 Liberals, +16 New Democrats, +17 Tories, and +2 Bloc

The "election result" is thus:
149 - Lib
116 - Con
60 - NDP
12 - BQ
1 - Grn

The difference from this to the real results (and PR results) are as follows:
-35 (-14) Liberal
+17 (-7) Conservative
+16 (+7) New Democrats
+2 (+4) Bloc Quebecois
+-0 (+10) Green Party

As you can see this does have some of the impact of STV, in that smaller parties (IE the Greens) do not do well. Beyond that, our results are pretty close, we get "about 2/3rds" of the way towards a fully proportional system. (Unsurprising, as this is "about 2/3rds" of ridings that are impacted)

Tomorrow I'll explain the "politics" around this, and why each party could gain.

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