Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Australia: first prediction

A quick update on Australia where I've dug a bit into the polls and have a projection for the lower house. It is as follows:

LNP - 71
LAB - 71
NXT - 3
IND - 2
GRN - 2
KAP - 1


LAB gains:
Macarthur
Lyons
Hindmarsh
La Trobe
Corangamite
Stirling
Capricornia
Dunkley
Deakin
Petrie
Swan
Soloman
Burt
Hasluck
Cowan

NXT gains:
Mayo
Grey
Sturt

GRN Gains:
Higgins


I am working on an upper house projection, but this is much more difficult. Canadians are spoiled when it comes to political polls, it's very easy to find province by province breakdowns for any federal poll, while I've had a hell of a time finding similar data from just about any country. If I can find a proper Australian poll, I'll produce a prediction for the Senate as well.

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