Sunday, February 28, 2016

Ireland - Teddy's Count

95 of the 158 seats are declared, but I've been able to count up some of the remainder, using what I expect to happen as the counts continue as a base. As such, these numbers are not final.

28 - FG
28 - FF
13 - SF
10 - Independent
4 - Labour
4 - Anti-Austerity Alliance, People Before Profit
4 - Independent Alliance
3 - Social Democrat
1 - Green
0 - Renua

Teddy's Math-based Assumption for the undeclared seats
23 - FG
15 - FF
11 - SF
7 - Independent
3 - Labour
2 - Anti-Austerity Alliance, People Before Profit
1 - Independent Alliance
0 - Social Democrat
1 - Green
0 - Renua

Edited to add in the Independents For Change group, a left-leaning group, as well as other divisions within the Independent camp

Teddy's Count - Presumed Final Results
51 - FG
43 - FF
24 - SF
7 - Labour
7 - Pro-Rural Independent
6 - Anti-Austerity Alliance, People Before Profit
5 - Independent Alliance
4 - Independents For Change
3 - Social Democrat
3 - Left-Wing Independents
2 - Right-Wing Independents
2 - Green
1 - Workers and Unemployed Action
0 - Renua

The Independent Alliance, from what I can gather, seem to be for "good government" and seem, perhaps, to be an alliance of Independents who very much want to be in government. As such, I expect them to possibly fill the gap in any coalition that does not make a majority.

SF has said, as expected, that would not sit in a government where FF or FG is the Sr Partner. Due to their poor showing (vs expectations) I can not see them in any position except opposition.

You need about 80 seats for a majority. Sure you can do it with 79 if you get the math right, but I'm going to use 80 as my number.

FG's options:
They need 29 more seats. They'd never sit with SF though.
With Labour they reach 58, and with the AI they can reach 63. Even if they invited in the SD's, and Greens, they still brings them to only 68. They'd need the support of 13 of the Independents to get a majority and I just can not see that happening. They might try to run a minority government with 68 seats, or more likely 63.

With FF
Together these parties have a clear majority of 95, far above the 80 line. The problem is these are two parties that, a century ago, fought a civil war with one another. It's more nuanced and complex than that, of course, but there will be a lot of effort needed to get these two parties to work together, even if their actual policies are not that far apart.

Other options:
There are none. FF could only cobble a coalition that contains SF and they are unwilling to accept such a thing without being put in the drivers seat. Perhaps if the seat balance was 34 VS 33, but with 43 VS 24 that is not going to happen.

As such there are only two options I see going forward

Minority FG government, likely with support or official coalition with Labour, as well as possible support/coalition from the IA, and SD's, as well as possibly some Independents and Greens.

Majority FG-FF Grand Coalition. Like the last government, I expect such an attempt to result in both parties bleeding TD's through the entire term.

Personally, my money is on the later.

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