Two by-elections were held in BC today. The riding previously held by the NDP was retained, while the riding held by the BC Liberals was won by the NDP. Interestingly, in the NDP-heavy riding, the Liberals fell to third, behind the Greens. I've done some math, a projection, showing how this would impact the next election using the factors determined from the by-election results.
Factors (determined from by-election)
BCL - 0.6837
NDP - 1.0803
GRN - 2.2975
Factors (used in this example)
BCL - 0.6666
NDP - 1.0000
GRN - 2.2500
Balance changes form the By-Election (48-35-1-1)
BCL to NDP
Boundary-Similkameen (47-36-1-1)
Penticton (46-37-1-1)
Vernon-Monashee (45-38-1-1)
Fraser-Nicola (44-39-1-1)
Jamloops-North Thompson (43-40-1-1)
Chilliwack-Hope (42-41-1-1)
Maple Ride-Mission (41-42-1-1)
Maple Ride-Pitt Meadows (40-43-1-1)
Surrey-Fleetwood (39-44-1-1)
Surrey-Tynehead (38-45-1-1)
Delta North (37-46-1-1)
Burnaby North (36-47-1-1)
Port Moody-Coquitlam (35-48-1-1)
Vancouver-False Creek (34-49-1-1)
Vancouver-Fraserview (33-50-1-1)
Vancouver-Langara (32-51-1-1)
North Vancouver-Lonsdale (31-52-1-1)
Comox Valley (30-53-1-1)
Parksville-Qualicum (29-54-1-1)
BCL to GRN
nothing
NDP to GRN
Cowichan Valley (29-53-2-1)
Esquimalt-Royal Roads (29-52-3-1)
Victoria-Beacon Hill (29-51-4-1)
Victoria-Swan Lake (29-50-5-1)
As you can see, this would result in an NDP majority. There is always caution in calling elections this early, so take it with a grain of salt; but with the Greens quintupling their seat count, the government in BC is in danger from attacks on both sides.
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