Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Alternate History - a stronger NDP

Our first Patreon request.

I was asked to look at possible alternate history results where the NDP did better than they did in real history. To do that, I want to look at three possibilities.

First, 1988.
During that election, the Liberals nearly screwed the pooch by switching leaders mid-election just prior to the debate. The debate where Turner took the party from 21% to 45% in the polls. The idea was the executive would replace Turner with Chretien in a vain hope to not lose everything. This would be horrible for the party, and there is enough 'evidence' of it that we can consider it real.

As such the 1988 alternate history will look at the possibility that the NDP, not the Liberals, would have managed an official opposition in that election.

Second, 1993.
I'm not going to connect the two officially, but, in short, to get here, we need to ensure that someone friendly to Quebec wins the leadership. We will also need to assume that the party makes a sherbrooke-like declaration. We also would need to neuter the Bloc Quebecois. To do this, I'm going to presume that the PQ intervenes and quashes any Bloc in it's early stages, meaning many of the future Bloc MPs end up joining the NDP.

Finally, 2015.
It may be "too soon" for the supporters of the NDP, but the reality is that 2015 was the best chance for the NDP to form government, ever. In this scenario, I will look at what would have happened if they had done so, and to get there, I again need to change the Liberal Leader. I will presume, simply, that either Justin Trudeau does not run. I could look at what would have happened if he had joined the NDP, but that would require a more radical change, so I will not do so.

These "stories" will come out over the next few days, with maps, and context.

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