Monday, December 14, 2015

Alternate History: 1993, NDP in Quebec

This one took quite some time to work on. In particular, because getting to this point is not easy. I will present the map now and explain some of the difficulties:

The NDP can win in Quebec in 1993. They need a few things to happen, some that I outlined earlier. First, we need the PQ to oppose the creation of any Bloc Quebecois. Secondly, we need the NDP to be openly friendly towards Quebec nationalism and sovereigntism.

This means the original BQ MP's do not defect to start a new party, they defect to the NDP. This would, of course, lower NDP support in anglo Canada, but after research, I've come to the conclusion that the NDP's awful result in 1993 was their floor. As such, despite them being tarred as "seppie", they would still win their 9 anglo seats.

One thing I simply could not avoid is a stronger PC presence within Quebec. While the sovereigntist movement is mostly left, there is a right presence, and there would simply be people in Quebec who are unwilling to vote NDP, despite being sovereigntist. We also end up with a stronger Liberal party due to the vote splits.

In the end, this does make some significant changes. First, without any Bloc, Reform takes the official opposition. Next, both the NDP and Tories have the 12 seats they need for official party status. This likely wouldn't make for much of a difference in the results of the 1995 referendum, but the referendum would certainly have a huge impact on the NDP. I can't see the NDP winning many, if any anglo seats in 1997 with a majority of their caucus supporting a Oui vote. In addition, it's quite likely that a Quebec MP would take over the party. In short, while this alternate history would give the NDP more seats in one election, it could well spell the death of that party.

1 comment:


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