Sunday, September 27, 2015

27SEP2015 Projection - Summary

The NDP is down to only 99 seats at this juncture

However, as noted, that 100th seat belongs to Peggy Nash, who may retain it on personal popularity.

A few notes

First, even if the NDP took 0 seats in Quebec, this projection would still be the 2nd best result for them in the history of the party.
Second, the NDP is facing some real weakness. Momentum is swinging against them in a huge way. So huge that seeing the party at 25% as a poll average a week from now is not out of the question.
Third, with the NDP in trouble, the Liberals stand to gain in a huge way. If the party can break away, with the NDP falling to 25%, and the Tories steady at 31%, the Liberals could become the "clear leader" with 35%. If that happens, it is really only a matter of time before voters who want to stop harper jump on the bandwagon, and we see the real potential for a Liberal majority.

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