Sunday, May 22, 2022

Australia election results

 Just a quick numbers post; on the results of the Australian election, which are still being counted.


Current topline results from the ABC show the following:


72-ALP
52-L/NP
15-Others


but we can do better than that.


77 - 32.8% - Labor (Progressive)
58 - 35.7% - Coalition (Conservative)
8 - 2.9% - "Teal Independents" (Eco Capitalist)
4 - 11.9% - Greens (Green)
2 - 2.6% - Other Independents (One hard left, One right moderate)
1 - 0.4% - Katter (Rural Conservative)
1 - 0.3% - Centre Alliance (Moderate)
0 - 4.9% - One Nation (Nationalist)
0 - 4.2% - United Australia (Anti-Lockdown)
0 - 1.7% - Liberal Democrats (Libertarian)
0 - 0.2% - Jacquie Lambie Network (Populist, leans right)
0 - 2.4% - all others


This, I think, is a far more useful way to look at things. It includes the in-doubt seats (1 green, 5 labor, 6 coalition) and breaks the teal independents off from the remainder of the independents (interestingly, the teal flavor seems to have taken more votes than all other independents combined!) I went through the 22 seats they ran, and simply added the first round vote result to determine this. 

Senate, new grand totals, estimated:


32 - Coalition
26 - Labor
12 - Greens
2 - Jacquie Lambie Network
3 - One Nation
1 - United Australia
0 - "Teal Independents"


This makes the same assumptions that the above list for the House result does. Interestingly, the Teal Independents could still win a seat, pending how the count goes in the ACT. If so that seat would come from the Coalition. 

One thing you may notice is the Sensate would be split 36-36 for both the left and the right. If the count holds, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, even if not really unprecedented. 


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