I may not be able to make an update on the 9th, so, I'll do some updates here.
Bulgaria:
Since the last update, the lead party has changed their mind, and decided to go it alone in a minority; then, changed their mind, and decided for a coalition again. It looks like they are considering the socialists over the Turkish minority liberal party.
Russia:
No 'prediction' changes since July, Instead, I wanted to look, quickly, at some of the parties not expected to win seats.
First; there are a number of parties that are overtly anti-administration. They include, but are not limited to, the liberal Yabloko party, the Green Alternative, and the Communists of Russia. All are expected to do very poorly. There are also parties that seem very pro-establishment. One is the New People party, that I will talk about later. Others include the left wing Party of Freedom, green Ecological Party, Lastly are parties that are only moderately pro-establishment, like the right-wing Party of Growth, moderate Civic Platform, the Pensioner party, and the hard right Rodina party.
New People, which is moderate, but leans slightly right, has been polling well; and by that I mean, at about 3%, where the threshold is 5%. It is possible they could enter the Duma; being a counterpoint to the more progressive Just Russia party.
Lastly, I want to go over the upcoming elections, and, the other elections I'm still following:
Norway - Sep 13
Russia - Sep 19
Iceland - Sep 25
Germany - Sep 26
German Lander - Sep 26
Czechia - Oct 9
Iraq - Oct 10
Japan - Oct 22
Montreal - Nov 7
Argentina - Nov 14
Post Election:
Bulgaria - gov formation
Israel - unstable? coalition
Monitoring:
France - spring 2022
Italy - summer 2023
This will make the coming fall quite a "big" year, in terms of elections. Germany, Japan, and Russia are all large, powerful nations voting this year. I will detail more about these upcoming elections in future posts. Note, however, that just because something is on the list here, does not guarantee I will cover it; and, conversely, I may decide to cover things not listed.
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