Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Update; Canada round up, 05MAY2021

 Location
Expected Election Date (or, my guess, if a minority)
Summary of results I expect

Federal
This fall
Liberal majority, gain of 2 dozen seats from the Tories.

Nova Scotia
Either right after the Federal election, or, Spring 2022
Lib Majority, gain of 4-5 seats from the tories. Houston stays on.

Ontario
Summer 2022
PC minority, Libs second. 50-40-30 seat split, roughly. No deals, no coalition, minority lasts 2 years at most.

Quebec
Fall 2022
CAQ re-elected to another majority, takes seats from PQ. PQ could be reduced to 2 or fewer seats. 

Alberta
Spring 2023
NDP majority, alternative hard-right party takes a few seats as well

PEI
Fall 2023
PC majority. Libs and Greens might tie at 2 or 3 seats each. Possible the combined opposition benches contain less than 3 members. 

Manitoba
Fall 2023
NDP majority, tories down to ~20 seats. Pallister resigns as leader. 

BC, NB, NL, SK, YK
Too far in the future to project

Looking at the Senate while I'm here, current standings are as follows:
42 - ISG (centrist and liberal, non-partisan)
20 - Conservative (right-wing, partisan)
12 - CSG (right-wing, non-partisan)
12 - PSG (left-wing, non-partisan)
5 - others (non-affiliated)
14 - vacant


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