Location
Expected Election Date (or, my guess, if a minority)
Summary of results I expect
Federal
This fall
Liberal majority, gain of 2 dozen seats from the Tories.
Expected Election Date (or, my guess, if a minority)
Summary of results I expect
Federal
This fall
Liberal majority, gain of 2 dozen seats from the Tories.
Nova Scotia
Either right after the Federal election, or, Spring 2022
Lib Majority, gain of 4-5 seats from the tories. Houston stays on.
Ontario
Summer 2022
PC minority, Libs second. 50-40-30 seat split, roughly. No deals, no coalition, minority lasts 2 years at most.
Summer 2022
PC minority, Libs second. 50-40-30 seat split, roughly. No deals, no coalition, minority lasts 2 years at most.
Quebec
Fall 2022
CAQ re-elected to another majority, takes seats from PQ. PQ could be reduced to 2 or fewer seats.
Fall 2022
CAQ re-elected to another majority, takes seats from PQ. PQ could be reduced to 2 or fewer seats.
Alberta
Spring 2023
NDP majority, alternative hard-right party takes a few seats as well
Spring 2023
NDP majority, alternative hard-right party takes a few seats as well
PEI
Fall 2023
PC majority. Libs and Greens might tie at 2 or 3 seats each. Possible the combined opposition benches contain less than 3 members.
Fall 2023
PC majority. Libs and Greens might tie at 2 or 3 seats each. Possible the combined opposition benches contain less than 3 members.
Manitoba
Fall 2023
NDP majority, tories down to ~20 seats. Pallister resigns as leader.
Fall 2023
NDP majority, tories down to ~20 seats. Pallister resigns as leader.
BC, NB, NL, SK, YK
Too far in the future to project
Too far in the future to project
Looking at the Senate while I'm here, current standings are as follows:
42 - ISG (centrist and liberal, non-partisan)
20 - Conservative (right-wing, partisan)
12 - CSG (right-wing, non-partisan)
12 - PSG (left-wing, non-partisan)
5 - others (non-affiliated)
14 - vacant
42 - ISG (centrist and liberal, non-partisan)
20 - Conservative (right-wing, partisan)
12 - CSG (right-wing, non-partisan)
12 - PSG (left-wing, non-partisan)
5 - others (non-affiliated)
14 - vacant
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