Thursday, July 25, 2019

Final word on Ukraine and Japan

The full results are below, including the [Proportional + Constituency] results.

253 - President [124 + 129]
43 - Opposition [37+6]
26 - Tymoshenko [24+2]
25 - Poroshenko [23+2]
20 - Voice [17+3]
6 - Opposition (splinter) [0+6]
3 - UKROP [0+3]
1 - Svoboda [0+1]
1 - Self Reliance [0+1]
1 - United Centre [0+1]
1 - Bila Tserkva Razom [0+1]
41 - Independents [0+41]
12 - Crimean seats (no election) [0+12]
14 - Donbass Separatist Held (no election) [0+14]

Historically in Ukraine, the Independents rush to join or form new political blocs once the Parliament opens. I've taken a look at some of the people elected, but not all, as the way the data is presented is very unhelpful to someone who does not speak the language. Using that sampling, and what I know about how things work in Ukraine, I've developed the following possible groupings when parliament starts:

260 - President
59 - United Opposition
33 - Poroshenko
27 - Tymoshenko
23 - Voice
22 - United Independents

This is, of course, just an estimation.



Japan's upper house results are now clear, and adding the half that was up for election to the remaining half, we end up with the following:

113 - LDP
32 - CDP
28 - Komeito
21 - Democratic Party 
16 - Innovation Party
13 - Communist Party
2 - Reiwa
2 - Social Democrats
1 - Anti-NHK
17 - Independents

Assuming the Independents roughly break in a similar proportion to how they did in the past assembly, and grouping the caucuses by how many sat previously, we end up with the following basic groupings:

142 - Government
40 - Progressives
30 - Moderates
17 - Conservatives
13 - Communists
3 - Others (traditional non-partisan posts)


lastly a reminder: this may be the final post for some time (pending a post on Johnson's future as PM)

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