Upcoming elections

The next local elections I may look at are in Brandenburg and Saxony, in Germany.

I am still keeping track of the Danish election, which is complete, to see who forms the next government; and, still trying to find ways to present the EU election data.

Greece votes on the 7th of July, a little over a month from now.
Polls have been fairly stable and suggest a victory by ND, the more Conservative party, which could win a majority on its own.

Ukraine votes on the 21st, but polls have been somewhat sparse. What we do have suggests a strong finish for Zelensky, the new President. His party may take 45% of the vote, which, due to thresholds, could be enough for an outright majority. The Pro-Russia opposition sits at a little over 10%, while both Poroshenko and Tymoshenko are polling consistently above the threshold (parties in Ukraine tend to rally around a single person rather than a single ideology) The only other party to pass the threshold recently is Voice, a new Liberal party lead by Svyatoslav Vakarchuk.

Japan will hold upper house elections some time in July, the 21st currently appears most likely. This will see half the upper house elected. Polling in Japan is strange. Take the 2017 election, where the final full poll showed the LDP at 32%. They took 33% in the election. However the CDP polled at 7% and took 20%. Kibo polled at 6% and took 17%. Komei at 4%, but took 13%. so what gives? The answer is that polls in Japan tend to ask not "how are you planning to vote" but "what party do you most approve of". The result of this is that votes for the LDP tend to be what is shown in the poll, but opposition parties need the "other/don't know/none" distributed. Distributing this to the LDP as well simply makes the poll inaccurate. Applying this to the coming election we can expect to see the LDP take between 40%-45% of the vote, and their coalition partners Komei between 10%-20%. CDP, the main opposition, could take 20%-25% while both Ishin and the Communists could take around 10%. This would mean a result similar to the last upper house election. I will look at the election in more detail and provide a 'guess' of the result at that time.

August is an off month, and we return in September with an election on the 17th in Israel. Given how far out we are from the election, polls are not yet frequent, but polling suggests that Bibi could form the government he wanted (the one that was voted down causing this election) on these results.

Austria is next, perhaps, as their election is simply 'sometime' in September, and, may, in fact, be before Israel. The OVP is up, while both the SPO and FPO are down. The coalition math, however, does not change for the OVP. It could however if NEOS, a Liberal party, and the OVP, can increase their combined vote total.

This takes us to October, which is over 110 days away. The next elections will then me Portugal, and Switzerland, followed, of course, by the Federal elections here in Canada. Then it is off to Poland in November.