New year elections

Israel is going to the polls on April 9th. The polls there have seen a radical and drastic change that does need to be noted.

Before this November the polling average looked a bit like this:

33 - Likud (Conservative, Netanyahu)
19 - Yesh Atid (Liberal)
12 - Zionist Union (Progressive)
12 - Joint List (Arab)
10 - Jewish Home (Neo-Nationalist)
7 - United Torah (Ultra Orthodox)
6 - Kulanu (Centrist)
6 - Meretz (Left)
6 - Yisrael Beiteinu (Right-Populist)
5 - Gesher (Centre-Right)
4 - Shas (Ultra Orthodox)

Current poll averages however look like this:

29 - Likud (Conservative, Netanyahu)
12 - Yesh Atid (Liberal)
12 - Joint List (Arab)
10 - Jewish Home (Neo-Nationalist)
9 - Zionist Union (Progressive)
7 - United Torah (Ultra Orthodox)
6 - Kulanu (Centrist)
6 - Meretz (Left)
6 - Yisrael Beiteinu (Right-Populist)
4 - Gesher (Centre-Right)
4 - Shas (Ultra Orthodox)
15 - Benny Gantz (New)

Benjamin "Benny" Gantz is a General in the IDF who is starting a new political party. There is suspicion among some the new party would join with either Yesh Atid, or Zionist Union; and, given what the polls look like when his new force is counted separately (as I've done here) it is quite clear that these two parties is where his votes will be coming from; as such its fairly safe to call him a progressive liberal politically.

Looking at past polls, Orly Levy, who re-started the Gesher party, polled at around the current level of support for that party when it was first announced, and, Kulanu when founded years ago, also stayed relatively close to its initial polling after its foundation. As such it is quite likely that Gantz can actually take 12 to 15 seats. There are a number of ways this could then play out.

It is possible Gantz would be willing to work with Bibi, but would wish to hold him on a leash; if so, a Gantz-Netanyahu coalition would give them 44 seats, only 17 short for a majority. The outgoing government was made up of Likud, Jewish Home, Kulanu, Shas, and UTJ; after Yisrael Beiteinu withdrew. It would be much easier for a smaller number of parties to present a stable coalition.

Perhaps more likely is a new Gantz lead centre-left government. Yesh Atid and the Zionist Union have a somewhat friendly working relationship, and added to the 15 seats Gantz could take, they could start counting at 36. The problem is growing from here. Kulanu would likely be willing to work with them, but after that the only other left-wing option is Meretz, and combined this is only 48. Even then it might not be easy to get Kulanu and Meretz to agree on a coalition.

In short; to get a better idea what will happen we will need to follow polling trends between now and April.





In Sweden, it has been decided that Parliament will vote on the 16th and 23rd of January to try to form a new government; if these votes fail, the country will head back to the polls for an April 21st election.



In Germany polls have somewhat stabilized with the CDU/CSU at 30, the Greens at 20, the SPD and AfD each at 15, and the FDP and Linke at 10; all roughly of course; but no party has strayed more than 3 points from this in December, and even then, each party has only strayed that far once. There likely will not be an election in Germany in 2019, but, I always endeavour to keep everyone updated. On that note;



In Italy and Spain previously mentioned trends continue; in Spain Vox remains at around 10% as polls are trying to find the new stabilization point, while in Italy Lega continues to ever so slowly rise in the polls.