Quebec, Interesting Regions

Caveat: my computer died and I'm writing this from memory. If some of these region names are "weird" or "wrong" I apologize.


Eastern Townships
Sherbrooke, and its neighbour riding ridings (Richmond, St. Francois, Megantic, Orford) are all polling stronger for the PLQ than they are "supposed to". Additionally, the PQ and QS are not as strong her as the math suggests they are "supposed to be" either. Will this turn into PLQ seats stopping the CAQ, or CAQ seats enabling a Majority? We'll have to see.


Far-East Montreal
The CAQ has a potential to take two ridings on the eastern tip of Montreal. In fact my previous tests show the Pointe riding (at the very eastern tip) is the balance-point riding. It is riding number 63, if the CAQ wins it they get a majority. I'm thinking they fail here, but should they get this riding, and the neighboring Bourget riding, the CAQ could not only end up with a majority, but one with MNAs from Montreal


Centre-East Montreal
QS is sitting on 3 seats right now, but is easily on a position to pick up two more in Hochelaga, and Laurier.  The question is if this will be all for them from Montreal. Rosemont - the riding of Lisee, the PQ leader, is within their grasp, and ridings like Maurice-Richard, and others are possible surprise wins.


Quebec City
Some polls have suggested CAQ weakness here. Taschereau, in the core of Quebec City, is all but certain to go QS and elect Catherine Dorion, who, being roughly my age, could well be an MNA for decades to come. QS could even pick up a second seat in Jean-Lesage, while the PLQ is polling well in Jean-Talon. Exactly how many seats the CAQ wins here will go a long way to determining if they take a Majority or nor.


Eastern Quebec
North-Shore ridings like Duplessis and Rene-Levesque combined with south-shore ridings like Gaspe, Bonaventure, and Matane, may be the only stronghold the PQ has left in the province. With the CAQ nipping at their heels in Rimouski and Jonquiere, the PQ could well be limited to a half dozen seats or worse. If so, this would likely be the last bastion of PQ support.


Abitibi-Temiscamingue
This three-riding region has been hard to pin down, and all 3 major parties (CAQ, PLQ, PQ) could do well here. If someone can win all 3 seats it speaks well to their performance this election.


The Holdouts.
Labelle (PQ), Joliette (PQ), Huntingdon (PLQ), and Sainte-Rose (PLQ) are all seats that the CAQ wants, but are difficult to take according to local polling. The CAQ could get a majority without any of them, but a victory in all 4 would go a long way towards solidifying a CAQ majority government.


In Summary:
"Will the CAQ win a majority" is the main question of this election. Should the PLQ win it will be viewed as a bit of a fluke.