Quebec - what's most likely to happen

Now that I've had some time to look at the polls in Quebec, I feel comfortable saying the CAQ will take between 55-65 seats, and could manage a very narrow majority.

The PQ is dropping the few vital points they need to hold on to some of their weaker seats, and will likely end up with between 5 and 12 seats.

The PLQ is still strong and will probably take between 35-45 seats, and form a strong opposition.

QS is maintaining their strong position at 16%-17%, and will most certainly at least take 5 seats, and could even take 10 seats if the ballots fall in the right order.

So, what happens after this?

A PQ-PLQ government is very unlikely. It does not matter if it is an outright Coalition, a Confidence and Supply deal (C&S) or some other arrangement that allows the PLQ to govern. First, as the sitting Government there is not much draw for an opposition party like the PQ to back them, and secondly, as the party 'furthest out' on Identity issues, the PLQ will have difficulty working with either the PQ or QS.

A CAQ-PQ government is more likely. Even then, the PQ would be loathe to back a party like the CAQ and would require some significant policy concessions to even consider it. The CAQ may be willing to give those up for a solid agreement for a stable government. The CAQ may also be willing to deal if the PLQ wins more seats, but CAQ+PQ=Majority. Either way the CAQ would need to give up a lot to get the PQ on side; but, its still the most likely route to a majority if nobody takes 63 seats.

A simple CAQ minority, however, may be what we end up with; without any backing from the PQ or other parties. This is probably the most likely on the numbers we currently see. If this happens we can expect another election in a year (if the CAQ goes up in the polls) or two (if the PLQ goes up in the polls) or even three (if the PQ sinks like a stone in the polls)

Any subsequent election to that would likely produce either a CAQ majority, or, return the Liberals to a majority. The PQ would be in deep trouble either way.

In the event of a CAQ majority, the PQ is likely finished as we know it. My money is on some kind of merger with QS - probably resulting in QS merging into the PQ and keeping the PQ name and branding but with the structure of QS (dual leaders for example) replacing the structure of the PQ. Should the PQ take fewer seats than QS this becomes much much more likely.

Such a merger would likely have won this election, so, it is in the interest of both parties to explore it, and since QS seems most interested in social justice, and the PQ most interested in its prestige as the "Party of Quebec" a deal to merge PQ branding with QS policies could well be the path back to office.