Good morning, the summer season is coming to an end meaning politics season is ramping up.
There are many elections to look forward to over the next few weeks.
Sweden goes to the polls early in September, it looks like the Left alliance will win placing the Social Democrats back in government, but the Neo-Nationalist Swedish Democrats are doing very well in polls, and while they can not win due to a lack of coalition partners, they could still place well.
New Brunswick votes later in September, and trends show the PC Party could pose a serious challenge to the sitting Liberals. It will be interesting to see if the Greens hold on to their only seat, or of the Reform-Alliance like Peoples Alliance can manage to pick up a seat.
Quebec votes in October, I've included a prediction map below:
Note this is a "prediction" which means it's not held to the same high standard I hold my projections to, and should be viewed in that context. The map, as well, is a work in progress.
I've had some questions as to why I've "reversed" the colours, using "Federal" colours instead of the more traditional PQ as darker blue and CAQ as lighter blue. The answer is, in part, found in the question.
It's easier to understand if a single template and palette of colours is used, and as such, it is desirable to use this in every province, every time. So when/where/why is that not done?
There are some parties that do not like the 'traditional' colours. The Saskatchewan Party operates as the main right-wing party in Saskatchewan, but due to history (there still is a Saskatchewan PC Party in existence) it does not use blue, and instead, uses Green. Given that it is a major party (the current government) it, as such, has widespread support (meaning people who like the party are more likely to be readers, VS, supporters of the Sask PCs) and as such, I usually will use some sort of Green for the party on maps, but have been known to make them Blue when I can get away with it.
The BC Liberals have a tradition of being right-wing as well, and could claim blue, and even use it sometimes in their own media. The Yukon Party refused to use Blue for a time.
Using a colour the party does not use becomes much easier when that party is smaller. I can, for example, use the "NDP Colour" for QS due to the weakness of the Quebec NDP.
It is therefore directly a result of the PQ doing so poorly that has caused me to use this colour scheme in this election. This kind of Red-vs-Blue, Liberal-vs-Tory story is simply easier for some to understand. It also makes clear a CAQ victory, beyond putting a former (and maybe still current) Separatist in power, would also put a decidedly right-wing party in power in Quebec.