Monday, August 20, 2018

Summer season ending

Good morning, the summer season is coming to an end meaning politics season is ramping up.

There are many elections to look forward to over the next few weeks.

Sweden goes to the polls early in September, it looks like the Left alliance will win placing the Social Democrats back in government, but the Neo-Nationalist Swedish Democrats are doing very well in polls, and while they can not win due to a lack of coalition partners, they could still place well.

New Brunswick votes later in September, and trends show the PC Party could pose a serious challenge to the sitting Liberals. It will be interesting to see if the Greens hold on to their only seat, or of the Reform-Alliance like Peoples Alliance can manage to pick up a seat.

Quebec votes in October, I've included a prediction map below:

Note this is a "prediction" which means it's not held to the same high standard I hold my projections to, and should be viewed in that context. The map, as well, is a work in progress.

I've had some questions as to why I've "reversed" the colours, using "Federal" colours instead of the more traditional PQ as darker blue and CAQ as lighter blue. The answer is, in part, found in the question.

It's easier to understand if a single template and palette of colours is used, and as such, it is desirable to use this in every province, every time. So when/where/why is that not done?

There are some parties that do not like the 'traditional' colours. The Saskatchewan Party operates as the main right-wing party in Saskatchewan, but due to history (there still is a Saskatchewan PC Party in existence) it does not use blue, and instead, uses Green. Given that it is a major party (the current government) it, as such, has widespread support (meaning people who like the party are more likely to be readers, VS, supporters of the Sask PCs) and as such, I usually will use some sort of Green for the party on maps, but have been known to make them Blue when I can get away with it.

The BC Liberals have a tradition of being right-wing as well, and could claim blue, and even use it sometimes in their own media. The Yukon Party refused to use Blue for a time.

Using a colour the party does not use becomes much easier when that party is smaller. I can, for example, use the "NDP Colour" for QS due to the weakness of the Quebec NDP.

It is therefore directly a result of the PQ doing so poorly that has caused me to use this colour scheme in this election. This kind of Red-vs-Blue, Liberal-vs-Tory story is simply easier for some to understand. It also makes clear a CAQ victory, beyond putting a former (and maybe still current) Separatist in power, would also put a decidedly right-wing party in power in Quebec.



  2. Has Quebec ever elected a government with no seats on the Island of Montreal? If the prediction comes true (and seems quite plausible and reasonable) that could happen. Would be interesting if it did. Happened federally when Harper was PM, but don't recall it ever happening provincially at least not in recent times.

  3. No, though there have been governments without significant presence on the island, and the amount of seats they have had on the island don't necessarily figure into their ability to form a government - the PLQ has had dominance for so long that one could easily form a majority government even if they lost every riding in Montreal, both the 90s wins for the PQ did that.

    1. That is definitely true, just pointing out I don't believe one has ever won without winning seats on the island as even the PQ when in government usually won some on the east side, whereas there is a very real possibility it could happen this time.

    2. Not a bad prediction, however the CAQ is now poised to win 2 seats on the Island of Montreal in the North East of the Island. Also think the CAQ will be able to take one seat in the Outaouais.

      Also come on... Legault is no longer a separatist, he said he wants a strong Quebec in a united Canada, and even if he wanted to the party wouldn't let him, there are now too many federalist candidates running, including former Liberal cabinet minister Marguerite Blais. With Support from people like Marlene Jennings a former federal MP from Montreal, Im convinced the CAQ wont propose any referendum ever.

      To say the opposite is pandering to the liberals fear campaign against the CAQ :)