At this time my current thinking is there is a good 48% or so chance of an NDP victory, with a 46% or so chance of a large PC Majority, and all other results combined being the remainder.
What's going to really nail it down is what the polls do by, say, May 19th. If by then the NDP is not a strong second and growing, then we are looking at a huge PC Majority. I simply suspect the NDP will, by May 19th, likely, be at 30% and increasing.
Should the NDP not take off, we are all but certain to have a very large PC majority, with the Liberals likely to be reduced to a dozen MPPs or less.
Also, yes the other previously mentioned blogposts are coming. May will be a much more full month with many posts. I've been dealing with more personal drama which has mostly wrapped up.