I've managed to become elected Speaker of CMHoC, and setting up my new team will take some time. Additionally, in February, I need dental work done that will take me out of commission either way. I will still try to get regular posts out during this time however.
The next major election is in March, when, on the 4th, Italy goes to the polls. On the 17th, South Australia votes, and on the 18th, Russia votes for President.
I'm also keeping an eye, as always, on various other countries. In Japan the Democrats are starting to move, as I expected, but many are moving more towards KnT, which could allow it to take on the official opposition if successful. In Israel, polling shows a broad centre-left alliance of Yesh Atid, Zionist Union, Meretz, and Kulunu would take between 55-58 seats, just shy of a majority, so I am keeping an eye on if these parties could increase their vote share in the run up to the next election.
The Italian election is potentially going to be very interesting with a possible minority government and a simply chaotic situation.
Updates to follow
Russia is an easy one to predict, Putin by a landslide. Only thing of interest is does he sweep every single oblast and district and does the Communist Party come in second as usual or does another party overtake them.
ReplyDeleteItaly will probably result in a centre-right alliance victory but unlikely they will cross the 40% threshold they need to get a majority so they will have to form either a grand coalition with the centre-left or with the Five Star Movement or perhaps the centre-left and Five Star Movement will form one to keep them out. Wouldn't be surprised if it drags on for a while and my guess is Ontario will know whom its next government is before Italy does despite the election being 3 months later.
Other interesting ones are if Merkel cannot put a coalition together, Germany could go back to the polls as no guarantees the SPD will agree on the final details of the agreement for another Grand coalition. In the UK, always a risk of the government falling, but I think that is more likely to happen next year or 2020 than this year although local elections this year might be the first clues on how things will turn out there. Australia also due to state elections and senate date being earlier than general have an early one this year. Labor is definitely the favourite to win there, but you never know although the Liberal/Nationals would probably have a much better chance at winning again if voting was optional instead of compulsory as Labor like in other English speaking countries does well amongst younger voters but poorer amongst older voters; however unlike elsewhere, younger voters don't have an option of not showing up.