Ontario projection

Math based projection from the 4 most recent polls:

62 - PC
33 - LIB
28 - NDP
1 - GRN

62 seats for the Tories and 62 for the other parties combined.

edited to add:

personal post

This past week has been the most emotionally difficult and draining week I've had in over a decade. I apologize for not making more posts. I will work to get one out over or after xmas.

By-Election applied to country

I wanted to determine how the swing in the by-election would play out on a national scale. To do so, I equally weighted 3 factors.

First, the most recent poll (picked over a poll average as it had a higher NDP number, and I wanted to compensate for the NDP's poor showing)

Second, the popular vote change from the last election in all 4 of the ridings.

Third, the popular vote change from the last election in the region each riding was in, the Pacific, the Prairies, Central Canada, and Atlantic Canada.

The final step was simply applying that ratio to all ridings in Canada, which produced this projection.

Note that I presumed that Singh would win his seat, as, his running, changes the math, and that previous by-election victories are applied to replace last-election results, which is how the Liberals retain Lac Saint Jean.

With this we get national totals of:

195 Lib
115 Con
15 NDP
11 BQ
2 Grn

Plan for December

Currently the plan for December is to make 7 back-to-back "large" posts.

I need 7 of these in order to do what I wish to achieve. I already know what 4 of them will be.

Introductions, and comparisons, of Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia.

In between each is going to be a total of 3 other posts. Currently I am trying to figure out what they will be. Suggestions are welcome.

Patreon Changes

Just a heads up, Patreon has made some changes recently. This will impact me negatively, my pledges will increase by 30% and those who donate to me will now be asked by patreon to donate more.

I have updated my goals to reflect this.

$6 will cover my patreon donations. It good piece of mind to not have to always worry about having a few dollars left in my bank when patreon comes for money

$43 will enable me to increase my donations to my fav creators tenfold, which I'd like to do but can not afford to do at this time.

$300 will enable me to double my daily cash budget, which I use to purchase things like groceries.

$1025 would replace my entire current non-patreon income with patreon income.

$5750 would, if my math is right, be $60,000 after tax, Canadian, after all fees.

None of this will impact my core mission of providing ad free content.

PEI Greens could form next Official Opposition

As mentioned in my post yesterday, I have a new map and a new projection.

So it was an interesting delight to see a new CRA poll putting the Greens at 25%. The Poll has a margin of error of 4%, meaning the party is effectively tied with the PC Party, at 28%.

"Great" I thought, "The Greens doing this well in the polls after that by-election win really shows they could actually win multiple seats"

However, I was wrong. The polling dates were November 1st through November 30th.

Just as New Democratic Parties jumped (in poll numbers) across the nation after their Alberta victory, I expect this by-election to strongly boost Green poll numbers across PEI. The fact they are starting at 25% only makes the chances they can win the 6 ridings shown on the map more likely.

Long story short, everything noted above presents a strong case for a Green Party official opposition in the next election, if not a government. When you actually look at the numbers, you notice that Bevan-Baker is the only leader over 30% in "best leader" polling consistently, and has lead such polling in all but one polling period listed, it only makes it more clear.

Edited to add for further context:

This article is another reason why I'm more certain. Large groups of people who formerly held high ranks don't tend to join a party unless that party has momentum.

PEI - new map and quick projection

The Green Party of PEI has won District 11 (where I ran in the 2003 provincial election) in a By-Election.

The new map comes pre-loaded with my projection for the 2019 election, and the assumptions under which I make it.

should the Greens fail to reach these levels in the polls, it is very likely that 4 seats would be a ceiling for them, and that between 1 and 3 seats is far far more likely.