Sunday, April 2, 2017

02APR2017 - Updates,_2017
The CDU and SPD remain tied in Germany.

What's most interesting is the SPD *seems* to have gained quite a good chunk of the former AfD vote; however this may simply be AfD voters switching to the CDU to stop SPD. AfD otherwise has lost about a quarter of it's support.
It will be a while before Italy votes again, likely, but seeing M5S with a lead is interesting.

The CPC leadership occurs at the end of May,_2017
Leadership races traditionally produce nonsense polls more than a month out, with polls 2 months out starting to hit closer to the mark.

As such, polls starting now will begin to give us a more and more accurate picture of what's really going on in the race for Conservative leader.

Three elections today
I'm not following any of them very close, however.

The SNS looks set to win the Presidency in Serbia; as a Pro-European party they are frequently seen as "the good guys" in simplistic media narratives about politics in the country.

In Armenia the big challenge is for the governing party - which has governed with a massive majority for most of the time since the collapse of the USSR - and if they can hold on to their majority or face a minority situation.

And in Ecuador, the left is set to take the Presidency, with the small chance of an upset from the centre-right.

By-Elections tomorrow
The Liberals have "chances" to win all 5, as do the Tories. The NDP has "chances" of winning in Vanier, and Saint-Laurent.

Most of these "chances" are long shots, 1 in 100, or even worse.

Both Calgary ridings going to go Conservative, while the Francophone ridings will go Liberal. Markham is the only riding likely to be close, and even then the Liberals are heavily favoured.

In the end it really does not matter at all who wins any of these. What matters is how well parties do in their growth areas. The Liberals need 28% or more in both Calgary ridings, and if they can get 33% or more in both Calgary ridings that is a big victory for the party. The Tories meanwhile need at least 22% in Saint-Laurent, and if they can hit 30%, that is a massive victory for them. For the NDP they need more strength in the 905 area, so that means Markham, where they would want to see at *least* 15%.

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